Algeria aims to put its finances on a sustainable path

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Investment Law ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.

Budget gains may mask Serbia's slow structural reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Just In Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
To Come ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance The cabinet enters office just in time to host a fresh visit from the IMF, expected later this month. Despite another landslide victory in parliamentary elections on April 24, Prime Minister and Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader Aleksandar Vucic has been in no rush to form his next government. With parliament dissolved in early March, this has been a wasted year for reforms, economic or other. The next government must start working effectively if it is to make up for this, even partly. Impacts Dusan Vujovic, confirmed as finance minister, will remain the focal point for implementing the SBA. A new law on financing local government is likely to be adopted in late August or early September. This will transfer a portion of revenues from income tax from local authorities to the central government. The new government will need to come up with a less ambitious plan for public sector redundancies in 2016 and 2017.

Investors will face more scrutiny in Papua New Guinea

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Change Of Direction ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Take Back ◽  
The Government

Subject The political outlook for Papua New Guinea under a new government. Significance Legislators have elected former Finance Minister James Marape as prime minister. He replaces Peter O’Neill, who resigned ahead of a no-confidence vote. Marape has promised to “take back the economy” and a “change of direction” in handling major resource extraction projects to achieve better returns for the government and people. Impacts The change in leadership may result in better governance and more consultation on policy formulation. Dealing with disgruntled landowner groups poses real problems for resource project management. The country will remain heavily dependent on foreign investment in resource projects, particularly mining, oil and gas.

Mexico's shale ambitions will have to wait

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Tight Oil ◽  
Shale Oil ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Growing Crop

Subject Mexico's massive untapped shale oil and gas reserves. Significance Mexico has enough 'tight oil' and gas reserves to make the country energy independent again, according to some estimates. However, finding and developing those reserves will be a long, costly and high-risk endeavour. Unfortunately for Mexico's energy policymakers, the oil price crash has sapped the industry's appetite and ability to take on the challenge. It will be years before Mexico's shale industry regains the momentum that had started to build before the oil industry downturn. Impacts Mexico will grow increasingly reliant on US natural gas imports, providing opportunities for pipeline and other infrastructure builders. Shale development could bring economic development to some of Mexico's poorest regions. A growing crop of domestic oil companies stands to gain from tight oil production.

Israeli-Lebanese offshore gas race may raise tensions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil And Gas Exploration ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
Offshore Oil

Significance The bids came from Greece’s Energean, an existing investor, and a consortium of Indian firms; there was little wider international interest. Neighbouring Lebanon’s first offshore oil and gas exploration round, which closed on October 12, was similarly disappointing, with just two bids received from one consortium consisting of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek. Impacts Political uncertainties following the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri could slow hydrocarbons exploration. The Lebanese government will be under domestic political pressure from NGOs to ensure transparency in its award of exploration licences. Israel will launch further bid rounds for the remaining blocks, but these are unlikely to produce a different result.

Malaysia will be main test for Singapore’s leaders

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War

Subject Singapore's political challenges. Significance The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has begun what will be a lengthy leadership handover from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Heng Swee Keat, currently finance minister and the PAP’s first assistant secretary-general. Speculation is mounting that Lee could bring forward the general election due by January 2021. In recent months, Singapore’s relations with Malaysia have soured. Impacts Turbulent relations with Malaysia will have no impact on the PAP’s leadership handover. Malaysia-Singapore ministerial ties will mitigate the effects of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s erratic foreign policy. Judicial verdicts against legislators from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) could worsen the WP’s already weak position in parliament. A prolonged US-China trade war would lead to a further decline in exports to China from Singapore.

Uganda president co-opts to dilute Mbabazi threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections

Subject Election outlook in Uganda. Significance President Yoweri Museveni is confirmed as the National Resistance Movement's (NRM) official presidential candidate for February 2016 general elections. His most threatening challenger is former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, whose defection is the most significant in a decade. However, in the wake of the NRM party primaries and delegates conference, Museveni has shown his ability to consolidate support among the political elite. Impacts Uganda's elections will distract focus from its official mediation role in Burundi's deteriorating security crisis. However, Museveni may also guard Uganda's position as the regional mediator for fear of losing influence. Burundi is at high risk of civil conflict, with repercussions for regional stability ahead of Uganda's elections.

Russia will prioritise economic stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister

Significance The event typically serves as a barometer of economic confidence in Russia. Last year, few significant deals were announced, and foreign delegates were fewer in number than usual. This year, the message was that the Kremlin will focus on ensuring economic stability in a time of geopolitical turbulence rather than wide-ranging reforms. Impacts Kremlin will continue to hope and gamble on a return to high oil prices. Russia will retaliate against the continuation of EU sanctions decided on June 22 with an agriculture import ban. Speculation will grow over former finance minister Alexei Kudrin's possible return to politics as prime minister.

Moroccans face more political and economic stagnation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Working Conditions ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Better Than

Significance Although the economy is still faring better than others in North Africa, public discontent has increased. Significant segments of the population, especially in rural areas, are economically marginalised and development favours the upper middle class. Protestors blame politicians for democratic stalling, economic hardship and unequal development; the authorities attempt to address these demands with superficial reforms mostly aimed at specific economic sectors. Impacts A consumer boycott aimed at figures close to the Palace, such as Agriculture Minister Aziz Akhannouch, could intensify. Endemic economic and political instability may deter foreign investment in 2018-19. The new finance minister will seek to reduce corruption and improve working conditions, with mixed success. Former Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane is unlikely to weaken his party by standing against the current premier.

India-Israel defence ties will deepen

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil And Gas Exploration ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Offshore Oil

Subject Indian-Israeli cooperation in defence trade and manufacturing. Significance Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in July raised relations between the two countries to what was described in a joint statement as a "strategic partnership". Defence cooperation featured in talks between Modi and his Israeli counterpart Binyamin Netanyahu. Impacts India will struggle to meet its target of reducing imported defence products by 40% within the next ten years. India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is likely to bid for Israeli offshore oil-and-gas exploration blocks. Closer relations between India and Iran may raise concerns in Israel.

China's tax cuts seek growth boost and poverty relief

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Standing Committee ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poverty Relief ◽  
Government Work ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Income Tax Reform

Subject Income tax reform in China. Significance As promised by Prime Minister Li Keqiang in his 2018 Government Work Report, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress has passed on August 31 an amendment to China's individual income tax. It slashes tax for low-income and middle-income earners, in an effort to keep up with the rapid increase in living costs and better redistribute wealth in one of the most unequal countries in the world, with a Gini coefficient for income of about 0.40. Impacts Recent comments by the Constitution and Law Committee signal that the law may soon be amended again. Important changes to residency rules will have an impact on foreign nationals living in China. New tax residence and anti-avoidance rules will eliminate loopholes and allow for a more efficient tax collection.

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