Social Democrats will shift Romania’s fiscal policies

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type

Headline ROMANIA: Social Democrats will shift fiscal policies

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Brazilian foreign policy faces new challenges

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Border Security ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Opening ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Subject Brazilian foreign policy under Aloysio Nunes. Significance Senator Aloysio Nunes, who took office as foreign minister on March 7, is an experienced politician from the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). He led the bloc supporting the government of President Michel Temer in the Senate, where he was also since 2015 head of the Commission of Foreign Affairs and National Defence. Nunes replaces Jose Serra at the foreign ministry and will seek overall continuity of Serra's agenda focused on the pursuit of trade opening and border security. Impacts Brazil lacks a clear strategy for its crucial relationship with China. Border security, a key issue for Serra, will remain important for Nunes. Domestic politics may divert Nunes’s attention as the 2018 elections approach.

Kyrgyz referendum may be Pyrrhic victory

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Pyrrhic Victory ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Kyrgyzstan's constitutional referendum. Significance Now that President Almazbek Atambayev has secured the constitutional changes he wanted, it is unclear how he benefits. The December 11 referendum was a success in its own terms despite the dearth of public understanding of the issues, but was accompanied by an acrimonious divorce between the ruling Social Democratic Party and its long-term coalition partner, Ata-Meken. Impacts A weaker government and divided parliament will struggle to focus on chronic and serious economic problems. The Social Democrats are in a stronger position nationwide thanks to their strong showing in simultaneous local elections. Kyrgyz nationalist and conservative groups will feel emboldened as some of the amendments are seen as concessions to them.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Immigration policy could topple Swedish government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Budget Proposal ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Immigration Issue ◽  
Clear Majority

Significance This is a lower forecast than the 170,000 the agency predicted in October, before Sweden reimposed controls at its border with Denmark. The immigration issue is causing strains within the minority two-party coalition government. The junior Green Party has lost several key battles in the last couple of months and is said to be questioning its participation in the government. Some scepticism has crept into the ranks of the Social Democrats as well, with several senior members encouraging the leadership to form a new government with the Moderate Party. Impacts With so many asylum seekers already in the country, Sweden's infrastructure will be pushed to the limit. Every misstep will cause further problems for the government. The Greens will either be allowed to push their own agenda within the government, or will break away. With polls showing a clear majority for the opposition, the temptation to bring down the government may prove too hard to resist. If the opposition joins forces to submit a budget proposal in the autumn, the current minority government must resign.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Disenchanted voters tilt strongly right in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Subject The makeup of the new Congress. Significance The October 7 general elections reconfigured Brazilian politics. On the back of the success of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro -- who fell just short of being elected in the first round --- the far right saw its representation expand significantly in a Congress where several established leaders lost seats they had held for decades. Gubernatorial candidates close to Bolsonaro also reached the run-off in key state races. Meanwhile, the traditional centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) recorded their worst electoral performance since the party's foundation in the late 1980s. Impacts Bolsonaro's economically liberal credentials are unproven. Some of Bolsonaro's allies may oppose key economic reforms. A highly fragmented Congress will make governance challenging over time.

Bavaria elections spell trouble for German coalition

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
National Level ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Partner ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Social ◽  
Christian Social Union

Significance The governing Christian Social Union (CSU), sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), suffered a serious blow in Bavaria's October 14 federal state elections, underscoring the wider decline of the CDU/CSU in Germany. Its setback, as well as the poor result for the Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s junior coalition partner, will have implications at the national level. Impacts If Merkel were to fall, Bundestag President Wolfgang Schaeuble could serve as stop-gap chancellor. In 2019’s state elections, the AfD could emerge as the largest party in several eastern states. Merkel could withdraw support for the CSU’s Manfred Weber, who wants to run for the European Commission presidency.

Unpopular tax reforms will be put on hold in Peru

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Power Balance ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Guardian

Significance This is the second cabinet change in as many months by President Martin Vizcarra’s administration. Tuesta’s removal represents a shift in the power balance between the prime minister’s office and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), traditionally regarded as the guardian of public finances. It reflects the determination of the new administration to avoid unpopular fiscal policies whose main impact would fall on less affluent taxpayers. Impacts The direction of policy will not change radically under Oliva. A probable rise in mining revenues will likely defer unpopular attempts at broader tax reform. Efforts to reduce tax evasion will produce disappointing results.

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