Regional differences in gang member identification methods among law enforcement jurisdictions in the United States

Author(s):  
Daniel Scott

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to compare gang member identification methods across regions in the United States as reported by law enforcement.Design/methodology/approachThe data were collected through surveys with various law enforcement jurisdictions in both urban and rural communities across the United States. Methods of gang member identification were compared across the United States. Region through the use of Ordinal Logistic Regression and Multiple Imputation.FindingsThe results reveal that there are systematic variations in methods of gang member identification across regions in the United States. Specifically, the West is significantly more likely to identify gang members through associations or arrests with known gang members, symbols and self-nomination compared to other regions. The South, Northeast and Midwest regions are significantly more likely to identify gang members through a reliable informant compared to the West.Originality/valueResearch has not compared gang member identification methods across region in the United States or examined how variations in gang member identification methods potentially impact the accuracy of reported gang problems and prevalence.

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.


Significance In the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the political debate on law enforcement 'going dark' due to encryption has resurfaced again in the United States and United Kingdom. However, governments have yet to demonstrate evidence of a loss of security capability because of encryption. Impacts The 'going dark' debate may be being used to distract from security agencies' existing surveillance capabilities. The debate's outcome could have a severe negative effect on consumer trust in internet-based businesses. Businesses will see opportunities in relocation to jurisdictions with robust laws that do not weaken cryptographic systems.


Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.


Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.


Significance Senior US officials see Communist-led China as the foremost threat to the United States. The Trump administration’s campaign against it spans the spectrum of government actions: criticism; tariffs; sanctions; regulatory crackdowns; military intimidation; support for Taiwan; and restrictions on imports, exports, investment and visas. Impacts Beijing will have little success in driving a wedge between Washington and its major Western allies. The West is unlikely to produce a convincing alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Negative public views of China incentivise China-bashing by politicians, which in turn feeds negative public opinion in a downward spiral. Beijing will persist in its efforts to encourage a more positive view of China among Western publics.


Significance Under pressure from the US and EU ambassadors, Bosnia's leaders have reached agreement to form a state government. The breakthrough has provided a badly needed respite from political paralysis; it required difficult concessions from all sides. Impacts By emphasising each side's concessions, politically affiliated media could jeopardise a shaky settlement. The United States and EU are too preoccupied with mainly internal problems to re-engage in Bosnia or the Balkans more concretely. Tensions between Russia and the West are being reflected in Bosnian politics.


Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.


Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.


Subject Turkish influence in Bosnia. Significance Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Sarajevo highlighted his powerful influence in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), as shown by the Bosnia-wide commemoration of the third anniversary of the failed coup in Turkey with numerous diplomatic, sporting and cultural events. Impacts A worsening in Turkish-US relations after Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles against strong US warnings could complicate matters. Bosnian and other Balkan leaders may have to choose between the United States and Turkey, just as Serbia wavers between the West and Russia. The conflicting interests of various external powers could exacerbate regional ethnic and political divisions, undermining stability.


Significance Its guidance will probably be at odds with the approach adopted by the United States. Impacts European AI firms will criticise a tougher regulatory strategy, fearing restrictions on their innovative potential, as well as from abroad. Larger tech companies will be better able to adapt to AI regulations than their smaller competitors. Public authorities, and law enforcement especially, will push back against facial recognition bans.


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