An evaluation of property markets in Southwestern Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 314-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chioma Oluwaseun Abere ◽  
Olusegun Adebayo Ogunba ◽  
Terzungwe Timothy Dugeri
Keyword(s):  
State Governments ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Southwestern Nigeria ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Property Markets

Purpose Studies on the maturity status of Sub-Saharan African property markets are scanty. The absence of such studies appear to have made African property markets – such as the Nigerian market – unattractive to foreign investors who require market information to assess the viability of proposed investments. The purpose of this paper is to explore the maturity status of selected city property markets in Southwestern Nigeria (i.e. markets in the capital cities of Lagos, Ibadan and Osogbo), with a view to providing information for enhanced property investment in Africa. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted and expanded on property market maturity paradigms suggested by Keogh and D’Arcy (1994), Akinbogun et al. (2014) and Jones Lang LaSalle (2014) to measure the maturity status of the property markets in the Nigerian cities. The study investigated the maturity of three markets in Nigeria by scoring the stated views of a range of stakeholders (estate surveyors and valuers, public land administrators and financiers represented by commercial banks) across a range of ten indicators. The responses were classified by means of a five-point classification scale which expanded on the initial four-point scale developed by Dugeri (2011). Findings The three property markets were found to exhibit varying maturity characteristics (with weighted mean scores of 3.07, 2.71 and 2.51, respectively), representing emerging and immature stages of evolution on the maturity path. These results suggest that there is a correlation between the tier of the market and the level of property market maturity. Practical implications The study concluded that first- and second-tier city property markets have emerged sufficiently to the point where they may safely attract foreign direct and indirect investment from courageous foreign investors. However, the state governments and real estate professional regulatory bodies in the second and third markets need to undertake substantial remodeling of market structures to make them attractive to international investors. Originality/value The value of the paper is in providing much needed information for enhanced property investment in Africa.

Australia will seek foreign infrastructure money

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Foreign Investor ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Competitive Disadvantage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Budget Surplus ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance Tax cuts were announced earlier this month for foreign investment in infrastructure, including transport, energy, water and communication. The move follows concerns that spending on infrastructure is too low for Australia’s projected population growth. Impacts The stimulus does not involve any new spending and will require the support of state governments, which co-fund some projects. Tax concessions will help ease a competitive disadvantage faced by foreign investors, but there will still be market barriers. Uncertain confidence in the current government could depress foreign investor interest. If it maintains the budget surplus, the government will keep backbenchers’ support.

scholarly journals The relevance of inter-market research to knowledge accessibility in property markets: lessons for Nigeria from the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ndubisi Onwuanyi ◽  
Abiodun Kolawole Oyetunji
Keyword(s):  
Market Research ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Market Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Urban Markets ◽  
Market Competitiveness ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Search Approach ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThis paper explores the relevance of inter-market research to improving knowledge in property markets. It focuses on Nigeria's emergent property market which JLL (2018) suggests is information challenged. Given the country's lack of property data management, it is posited that inter-market studies can help to improve information supply and market knowledge. Inter-market research in Nigeria is compared with the UK's established market where such research is a key information source.Design/methodology/approachAn online database search was used to collate published intra-market and inter-market research on Nigeria's property market between 2009 and 2019. The inter-market research were thereafter examined as to volume and scope (geographical and thematic) and compared with the UK's.FindingsRelative to the UK, the volume as well as scope (geographical and thematic) of inter-market research in Nigeria are respectively far lower and narrower, thereby producing less information overall. Only a few Nigerian studies provide insights of two or more local markets. There is little or no research on many important market issues and other urban markets in the system. This suggests that inter-market research is relatively undeveloped in Nigeria.Research limitations/implicationsThe online search approach used to assemble extant research in the absence of a research repository may have resulted in the omission of some inter-market research undertaken between 2009 and 2019 if these were not published online.Practical implicationsThe dearth of inter-market research in Nigeria suggests an inadequately researched market. This limits market information, market knowledge, suggests a low market competitiveness with implications for development in view of the role of property in the modern economy.Originality/valueIn view of the little attention given to inter-market research in Nigeria, this study draws attention to its potential for improving market knowledge by the production of information which has a wider market relevance.

China slowdown prompts 'supply-side' response

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Second Tier

Significance China's economic slowdown has been gradual but, since the middle of last year, has been accompanied by a depressed property market and extreme volatility in capital markets. Impacts The renminbi will experience downward pressure due to the slowdown in China and rate hikes in the United States. Housing market inventory will decrease, putting downward pressure on property prices, especially in the second-tier cities. In equities, the 'slow bull market' sought by the authorities is less likely than a 'slow bear market'. Consumer price inflation is unlikely to pick up, leaving room for monetary easing. M&A activity among large SOEs is likely to increase in 2016.

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 579-596
Author(s):  
Moshe Szweizer
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Mathematical Reasoning ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Property Market ◽  
General Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Market Conduct ◽  
Property Markets ◽  
Market Behaviour

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.FindingsThe general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.Practical implicationsThe model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.Originality/valueThe paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.

An investigation of factors influencing maturity levels of property market in southwestern Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwaseun Chioma Abere ◽  
Olusegun Adebayo Ogunba ◽  
Terzengwe Timothy Dugeri
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Property Right ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Weighted Mean ◽  
Southwestern Nigeria ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Property Data ◽  
The Government

PurposeThe study investigated the factors influencing maturity levels in the Nigerian property market particularly southwestern Nigeria in sub-Saharan Africa. There is a need to identify the factors responsible for the less notable progress in the market in order to proffer measures that will enhance the property market or attract both local and international real estate investors.Design/methodology/approachThe method of data analysis adopted is weighted mean scores. The study sampled estate surveyors, public land administrators and financier, which are represented by the commercial bank. The respondents were presented a list of 40 factors and asked to rank them on a seven-point Likert scale. In order to reduce the variables responsible for the maturity levels into a few factors, factor analysis was employed.FindingsThe factors identified by respondents as the most responsible for the maturity levels observed (those with the highest weighted mean score of 6.52, 6.35 and 6.31) include government policy on interest rate, safety of property right/titles and insufficient property market information. Using factor analysis, the variables were further grouped into six factors namely monetary policy, property right registration, property professionalism, investor friendliness, property data and economic factors.Practical implicationsOn the basis of findings, the study recommends that the government should create an enabling environment for prospective investors/or property owners by taking measures that will improve the ease of doing business at same time enhance the foreign real estate investment. The government should pass enabling legislation that will make real estate financing a feature of the capital market. The Central Bank of Nigeria can help in managing the rate of inflation in order to reduce the cost of the construction materials so that average Nigerian can be able to own property asset. Prominent real estate firms should in conjunction with The Nigeria Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers develop property data bank on market fundamentals, e.g. rental/capital values, yields, construction cost indices, etc.Originality/valueThe paper provided the information on the factors that will enhance property maturity levels in southwestern Nigeria.

The dynamics of listed property companies in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-106
Author(s):  
Thi Kim Nguyen ◽  
Muhammad Najib Razali
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Future Contract ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Property Companies ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose As an asset class, listed property companies (PCs) in the emerging Asian markets have taken on increased significance in recent years. Investors have seen Indonesian real estate investment trusts (REITs) being regulated to become a property investment vehicle in 2007. This sees macro-environment investment in the Indonesian property market taking off to a higher level regionally. In the background, Indonesian listed PCs maintain as one of the major investment vehicles for local and international investors. It has also been the subject of investment for REITs and property investment funds in Indonesia. The purpose of this paper is to assess the dynamics of risk-adjusted performances and portfolio diversification benefits of listed PCs in a mixed-asset portfolio context in Indonesia, from July 2006 to December 2018. The sub-periods of pre-global financial crisis (GFC), GFC and post-GFC of listed PCs is also assessed. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of listed PCs from July 2006 to December 2018 are assessed, with extended efficient frontiers and asset allocation diagrams used to assess the role of listed PCs in a mixed-asset portfolio. Sub-period analyses are conducted to assess the post-GFC recovery of listed PCs. Findings Listed PCs delivered higher returns but carried higher risks compared to stocks before the GFC, with bonds having both the lowest returns and risks. The impact of the GFC was highest for Indonesian PCs compared to stocks, where properties did not deliver strong risk-adjusted returns. Notwithstanding the poor risk-adjusted performance, Indonesian PCs had low correlations with stocks and bonds, suggesting some level of diversification potential for stock and bond investors. Stocks outperformed listed PCs across the sub-periods and the full period. Over the post-GFC period, both stocks and listed PCs recovered from the crisis, with stocks turning around stronger. This analysis shows a prolonged recovering and slow bouncing adjustment of listed PCs from the economic changes. This research suggests selected listed PCs may be the outperformers, and, a future contract as a hedge form for listed PC to be implemented. Research limitations/implications The use of the indices of Standard & Poor’s Indonesian property total return (for listed PCs) are as follows: MSCI Indonesia total return (for stocks), Indonesia’s ten-year bond’s total return (for bonds) and Indonesia’s three-month bill total return (for cash). This is used to study the Indonesian listed PCs and may have aggregation effects in its underperformance and therefore drawing a negative outcome. The results may reflect the common fact that the majority of listed PCs in Indonesia are property developers, which also sees underperformances in other emerging country markets. Practical implications Listed PCs have been under increasingly adjusted and positively adapted regulations from the Indonesian Government over the post-GFC period. Therefore, in order to attract interest from international investors in property investment in Indonesia, listed PCs need stronger and more efficiently adapted regulations to a competitive level of respective regulations in the region and globally. Notwithstanding the poor performance in the transitional stage, Indonesian listed PCs bring some diversification benefits to local investors who are able to pick the outperformed invested PCs at the right time. Of the on-going concerns, international investors have no restrictions on holding listed PCs in the Indonesian stock market. This provides room for improvement in business performance in listed PCs as a result of regional/global competition and international management being involved. The present study delivers awareness to investors, researchers as well as policymakers on the Indonesian property market. Originality/value This paper is the first published to present a country profile of significant property vehicles (commercial property, listed PCs and REITs). It also presents empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of listed PCs and its dynamic role in a local investors’ perspective across the pre-GFC, GFC, post-GFC periods. Given the significance of listed PCs in Asia, this research highlights more information for opportunities and on-going property investment issues in Indonesia.

scholarly journals The “glocalisation” of Istanbul's retail property market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Eren ◽  
John Henneberry
Keyword(s):  
Local Property ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Change ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Retail Property ◽  
Elite Interviews ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe continuation of globalisation and liberalisation processes has prompted the restructuring of many national and local property markets. The research examines the evolution of Istanbul's retail property market to identify how global and local agents engage with one another to produce a unique “glocalized” outcome.Design/methodology/approachThe morphogenetic approach is adapted and applied to analyse the dynamics of market change. The focus is on the character and behaviour of national and international market actors and how they interact with the wider political economy. The research uses a combination of elite interviews, document analysis and corporate case studies to obtain empirical evidence.FindingsThe liberalisation of the Turkish economy heralded the entry of the first international companies into Istanbul's retail property market in the 1990s. International involvement expanded rapidly after 2004, accelerating the process of market re-structuring. However, while the number of global buy-outs increased, the expansion of local property companies–and the establishment of some international/national corporate partnerships–was even more marked. This resulted in a “glocalised” market with a strong and distinctive local culture.Originality/valueIstanbul has been a major centre of trade for millenia. This is the first substantive analysis of the recent restructuring of the city's retail property market. Previous research on market maturity and market evolution has paid limited attention to the dynamics of change. The paper describes the use of a process-based theoretical framework (morphogenesis) that was explicitly designed to analyse structural shifts in socio-economic conditions through an examination of the characteristics and behaviours of the actors involved.

Achieving property valuation accuracy in developing countries: the implication of data source

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 573-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rotimi Boluwatife Abidoye ◽  
Albert P.C. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transaction Data ◽  
Property Valuation ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe demand for accurate property value estimation by valuation report end users has led to a shift towards advanced property valuation modelling techniques in some property markets and these require a sizeable number of data set to function. In a situation where there is a lack of a centralised transaction data bank, scholars and practitioners usually collect data from different sources for analysis, which could affect the accuracy of property valuation estimates. This study aims to establish the suitability of different data sources that are reliable for estimating accurate property values.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts the Lagos metropolis property market, Nigeria, as the study area. Transaction data of residential properties are collected from two sources, i.e. from real estate firms (selling price) and listing prices from an online real estate company. A portion of the collected data is fitted into the artificial neural network (ANN) model, which is used to predict the remaining property prices. The holdout sample data are predicted with the developed ANN models. Thereafter, the predicted prices and the actual prices are compared so as to establish which data set generates the most accurate property valuation estimates.FindingsIt is found that the listing data (listing prices) produced an encouraging mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values compared with the firms’ data (selling prices). An MAPE value of 26.93 and 29.96 per cent was generated from the listing and firms’ data, respectively. A larger proportion of the predicted listing prices had property valuation error of margin that is within the industry acceptable standard of between ±0 and 10 per cent, compared with the predicted selling prices. Also, a higher valuation accuracy was recorded in properties with lower values, compared with expensive properties.Practical implicationsThe opaqueness in real estate transactions consummated in developing nations could be attributed to why selling prices (data) could not produce more accurate valuation estimates in this study than listing prices. Despite the encouraging results produced using listing prices, there is still an urgent need to maintain a robust and quality property data bank in developing nations, as obtainable in most developed nations, so as to achieve a sustainable global property valuation practice.Originality/valueThis study does not investigate the relationship between listing prices and selling prices, which has been conducted in previous studies, but examines their suitability to improve property valuation accuracy in an emerging property market. The findings of this study would be useful in property markets where property transaction data bank is not available.

Considerations for the design and management of property database in opaque markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 445-454
Author(s):  
Daramola Thompson Olapade ◽  
Benjamin Gbolahan Ekemode ◽  
Abel Olaleye
Keyword(s):  
Free Access ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Property Data ◽  
Professional Body ◽  
Central Database ◽  
The Creation ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeEarlier studies have suggested the creation of a central database of concluded property transactions as a panacea to the property data debacle. It is in this regard that the purpose of this paper is to examine the perception of potential users of centralised property database on the consideration for the design and management of such database.Design/methodology/approachQuestionnaires were administered on 190 property practitioners (referred as estate surveying and valuation firms) in Lagos property market. Frequency index, frequency distribution and percentage were employed for data analysis.FindingsThe result showed that respondents preferred a web-based databank and free access to the information in the databank by those who recorded their market data in it. They also preferred uniform recording standard in the databank, an interface that must be user friendly and secure to prevent unauthorised user from gaining access, amongst others. The practitioners also preferred that their professional body manage the databank when it is created.Practical implicationsThe paper provides useful insights into creating a property database that will improve accessibility to property data in opaque markets.Originality/valueThere is still little or no empirical research on framework/end-users’ requirements for the creation of property transaction database in emerging property markets.

scholarly journals Market maturity: China commercial real estate market

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiulin Ke ◽  
Karen Sieracki
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
High Government ◽  
International Investors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolutionary path to market maturity that China property market has taken over the last few decades. The focus is on the commercial real estate markets in Beijing and Shanghai. It will help international investors understand the market environment, risk and market activity process. Design/methodology/approach – In this research, the authors apply the market maturity framework and its key determinants based on previous work undertaken by Keogh and D’Arcy (1994) and Chin et al. (2006) for the analysis of Chinese commercial property market. Particular focus is on Beijing and Shanghai. The questionnaire is designed to obtain fair and objective views from international property consultancy firms active in Beijing and Shanghai markets. There are not many of these international property consultancies. The reason why this type of business was selected was to insure that the business had an understanding of China’s place in the global commercial real estate market as this market matures from its emerging market status. Findings – The findings reveal that the respondents felt the commercial property markets in Shanghai and Beijing were now moderately mature. However, issues such as poorer level of standard market information, development instability, low transparency of the legal system, high taxes and high government invention still existed in China’s commercial property market, therefore hindering its progress towards greater market maturity. Research limitations/implications – The small same size of the survey is the major limitation of the research. Practical implications – International investors and analysts can benefit from the research findings through a better understanding of the behaviour and trends in this unique market which will be reflected in their decision-making process. Originality/value – An explorative approach was used due to the lack of data to examine the perception of China’s commercial property market’s evolution and maturity. The findings can then be placed in the context of other Southeast Asian cities. The evolutionary process of China’s property market is rarely examined in previous studies of China property market due to the lack of data and transparency.

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