China slowdown prompts 'supply-side' response

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Second Tier

Significance China's economic slowdown has been gradual but, since the middle of last year, has been accompanied by a depressed property market and extreme volatility in capital markets. Impacts The renminbi will experience downward pressure due to the slowdown in China and rate hikes in the United States. Housing market inventory will decrease, putting downward pressure on property prices, especially in the second-tier cities. In equities, the 'slow bull market' sought by the authorities is less likely than a 'slow bear market'. Consumer price inflation is unlikely to pick up, leaving room for monetary easing. M&A activity among large SOEs is likely to increase in 2016.

Commodities rout will fuel EM concerns and volatility

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Country Specific

Significance This drop has taken oil into its second bear market in the space of just over a year amid a broader rout in the prices of commodities, notably copper and gold. The commodity sell-off is fuelled by mounting concerns over the economy and financial markets of China, the world's top crude importer and its largest energy user. The sell-off is exacerbated by fears over the fallout from a US interest rates rise, which could come as early as September. Country-specific risks are weighing on emerging market (EM) assets, notably the currencies of large commodity exporters such as Brazil and Russia. Impacts The sharp fall in commodity prices will exert further downward pressure on inflation in both emerging and advanced economies. Re-emerging disinflationary trends will bode ill for the ECB efforts to boost inflation in the euro-area. The commodity sell-off will exacerbate economic and political crises in Brazil and Russia. The EM currencies fall is forcing many central banks to signal an end to monetary easing or to tighten policy.

Place-based economic policies see political resistance

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Community Colleges ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Nature

Subject Place-based policies. Significance Economic inequalities within countries are rising worldwide; the consequences are increasingly apparent in productivity, health and other indicators. Calls for place-based policymaking to tackle such inequalities are growing in the United States and elsewhere. Research into the effectiveness of such policies is limited, discouraged by their fragmented and local nature. However, what research there is shows scant evidence of net job creation or poverty reduction. Impacts Supply-side policies such as retraining and fostering entrepreneurship may more successfully attract firms than demand-side incentives. The local nature of place-based policies will require more investment in community colleges and location-specific retraining of workers. The share of US workers employed in farming is falling steadily; 'rural small-town America' may disappear even with place-based policies. The poorest groups of society are vulnerable to COVID-19; it is likely to raise inequality and make place-based policymaking more necessary.

Cyprus will try to improve tarnished image in West

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Foreign Nationals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Investment Programme ◽  
The Impact

Subject Nicosia’s decision to revoke the citizenship of 26 foreign nationals. Significance Cyprus has tightened up its Citizenship by Investment Programme (CIP) with regard to certain controversial individuals out of a desire to strengthen relations with the United States and EU. This is particularly important given Turkish efforts to prevent Cyprus exploring for natural gas in its waters. Impacts According to a finance ministry study, CIP made a positive but relatively small contribution to GDP during 2013-18. The construction sector benefited in particular, with employment rising by about 8%. The effect on property prices seems largely to have been confined to Limassol. The impact on Cypriot banking amounted largely to stabilising the sector and providing a new source of finance during the banking crisis.

Japan's political outlook stable but economy will slow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Subject The outlook for politics in Japan for the rest of 2019. Significance Japan’s political calendar is busy in the months ahead. On May 1, a new emperor will take the throne. The G20 meeting will be held in Osaka in June. The US and Chinese presidents will both visit separately, too. Upper house elections are due in July, following local elections in April. In October, a long-postponed rise in sales tax will take effect. Impacts Some economic slowdown in the fourth quarter seems inevitable, following the hike in the sales tax. The prospect of a settlement of Japan’s territorial dispute with Russia is distant, despite optimistic talk. Trade talks with the United States are likely to be protracted and not settled until after Washington reaches a trade agreement with Beijing

The risks surrounding ECB stimulus withdrawal are high

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
The Past ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Equity Index

Subject Monetary divergence Significance After reaching multi-year highs in the second half of 2017, euro-area manufacturing and services surveys are now signposting slower growth. Meanwhile, euro strength is dampening inflation pressures. Thus the ECB will be cautious in its plans to ‘normalise’ its ultra-loose monetary policy. Impacts The euro has gained 15% against the dollar over the past twelve months; growing divergence with US policy will fuel further strength. Further euro strength is likely to put more downward pressure on euro-area core inflation and could damage export competitiveness. Markets are likely to remain volatile; the S&P 500 equity index is experiencing its second-most volatile year outside a bear market. Investors’ appetite for ‘risk assets’ will remain strong; 65 billion dollars has gone into emerging market bond and equity funds in 2018.

Fidesz’s grip on Hungary will weaken in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Sharp Fall ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
Downward Pressure

Significance After years of being on the losing end of an electoral system crafted by ruling Fidesz to favour large, unitary blocs, the opposition is marching towards unity. Although Fidesz’s path to victory in 2022 is still wider than that of the opposition, whoever wins, the era of stability that began in 2010 will end next year. Impacts A sharp fall in political stability and predictability will put strong downward pressure on the forint and raise borrowing costs from 2022. Orban’s weakening would spell the end of Central Europe’s Eurosceptic pole, and reduce opposition to Franco-German EU integration efforts. The United States and Western Europe will ramp up criticism of Orban and indirect support for the opposition.

Policy in China will return to putting growth first

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Clear Shift ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China. Significance Downward pressure on economic growth is growing amid trade tension with the United States and the effects of a campaign to deleverage the domestic economy. The central government has made a clear shift towards looser monetary and fiscal policy to provide liquidity and stimulate business activity, implying that authorities' concerns about slowing growth are serious. Impacts Interest rate cuts and further credit injections are likely before year-end if trade tensions with the United States persist. Investments in infrastructure will facilitate technological development such as 5G adoption, with a wider impact on other industries. Infrastructure investment is back in favour in Beijing, so the Belt and Road Initiative could receive another boost abroad.

Predicting property price index using artificial intelligence techniques

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1072-1092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rotimi Boluwatife Abidoye ◽  
Albert P.C. Chan ◽  
Funmilayo Adenike Abidoye ◽  
Olalekan Shamsideen Oshodi
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Property Price

Purpose Booms and bubbles are inevitable in the real estate industry. Loss of profits, bankruptcy and economic slowdown are indicators of the adverse effects of fluctuations in property prices. Models providing a reliable forecast of property prices are vital for mitigating the effects of these variations. Hence, this study aims to investigate the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for the prediction of property price index (PPI). Design/methodology/approach Information on the variables that influence property prices was collected from reliable sources in Hong Kong. The data were fitted to an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) models. Subsequently, the developed models were used to generate out-of-sample predictions of property prices. Findings Based on the prediction evaluation metrics, it was revealed that the ANN model outperformed the SVM and ARIMA models. It was also found that interest rate, unemployment rate and household size are the three most significant variables that could influence the prices of properties in the study area. Practical implications The findings of this study provide useful information to stakeholders for policy formation and strategies for real estate investments and sustained growth of the property market. Originality/value The application of the SVM model in the prediction of PPI in the study area is lacking. This study evaluates its performance in relation to ANN and ARIMA.

Property bubbles – a transitory phenomenon

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Grover ◽  
Christine Grover
Keyword(s):  
Short Selling ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Bubbles ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose is to review what is known about property bubbles and their causes. Design/methodology/approach – The method has been to review the literature on bubbles in the property and other asset markets to examine their likely causes and whether there are specific aspects of the property market that make it more prone to bubbles. Findings – The property market has features that make it susceptible to bubbles, particularly inelasticity in supply and the absence of short selling. Bubbles can develop where there are heterogeneous beliefs. The way in which property tends to be financed helps to facilitate bubbles and transmit their effects onto the wider economy. Practical implications – The collapse in property prices after the financial crisis of 2008, like previous bubble collapses, has inflicted serious damage on the wider economy through losses of banks' capital, reductions in lending, and increased risk aversion. Understanding why bubbles exist offers the potential to devise policies to limit the impact of their collapse. Originality/value – Much of the literature on asset bubbles is based on securities markets. It is important to recognise the differences between the property market and securities markets, particularly how investment is financed.

‘America First’ trade unravels as market risks mount

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Technology Stocks

Subject Outlook for US financial markets. Significance Since October, the benchmark S&P 500 index has fallen by more than 5% as part of a broad-based sell-off of financial assets. Indications that the ‘America First’ inspired trade agenda is unravelling include concerns that rising US interest rates will dampen economic growth and corporate earnings, and a rout in technology stocks, the high-flying sector that powered the US equity rally from mid-May to late-September when US stocks significantly outperformed their European, Japanese and Emerging Market (EM) peers. Impacts Lower oil prices will extert downward pressure on inflation. Efforts by China and the United States to wean themselves off mutual dependence in tech could escalate, curbing the US tech stocks bull run. The first inversion of the bond yield curve since 2007, will fuel speculation that the Fed will slow monetary tightening. EM equities will remain volatile, despite have risen by nearly 9% since October 29, partly reversing their 2018 sell-off.

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