scholarly journals Options trading strategy based on ARIMA forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-127
Author(s):  
Pierre Rostan ◽  
Alexandra Rostan ◽  
Mohammad Nurunnabi
Keyword(s):  
Composite Index ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Credit Crisis ◽  
Strike Price ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Option Trading ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Options Trading

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a profitable and original index options trading strategy. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting of the S&P 500 index and the strategy is tested on a large database of S&P 500 Composite index options and benchmarked to the generalized auto regressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. The forecasts validate a set of criteria as follows: the first criterion checks if the forecasted index is greater or lower than the option strike price and the second criterion if the option premium is underpriced or overpriced. A buy or sell and hold strategy is finally implemented. Findings The paper demonstrates the valuable contribution of this option trading strategy when trading call and put index options. It especially demonstrates that the ARIMA forecasting method is a valid method for forecasting the S&P 500 Composite index and is superior to the GARCH model in the context of an application to index options trading. Originality/value The strategy was applied in the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis over 60 months when the volatility index (VIX) was experiencing a downtrend. The strategy was successful with puts and calls traded on the USA market. The strategy may have a different outcome in a different economic and regional context.

Stock returns in Chinese markets and lucky numbered days

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 925-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Stephen Haggard
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
Chinese Markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the stock return impact of “lucky” numbered days in markets dominated by Chinese participants. The existence of such patterns might present arbitrage opportunities for investors who do not share a belief in the Chinese system of “lucky” numbers. Design/methodology/approach – In univariate and multivariate analyses, the author examines the statistical significance of return differences between “lucky” numbered days and other days. The author examines samples which only consider single digit days and months, and the author also considers samples based on the last digit of the day or month. Based on the findings in these tests, the author designs and tests a trading strategy on the Shenzhen Exchange that produces significant risk-adjusted returns in excess of the buy-and-hold return on the Shenzhen Composite Index. Findings – The author shows that “lucky” numbered dates impact stock returns in Chinese markets and demonstrate a “lucky” number date trading strategy for the Shenzhen market that produces risk-adjusted returns in excess of the market return. Originality/value – Prior research on home address numbers and stock trading codes shows that, in markets dominated by Chinese participants, assets with identifiers containing numbers defined by Feng Shui as “lucky” sell at a premium and assets with identifiers containing “unlucky” numbers sell at a discount. In such markets, prices are more likely to end in a “lucky” number than an “unlucky” number. Chinese firms also tend to price their shares at IPO using “lucky” numbers and avoiding “unlucky” numbers. The author extends this literature to examine whether dates containing “lucky” and “unlucky” numbers experience stock returns significantly different than other days on Chinese stock exchanges.

The dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 264-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyuan Guo ◽  
Xu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China based on high-frequency data. Design/methodology/approach – Using a multiplicative error model (hereinafter MEM) to describe the margins in volatility of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, this study adopts static and time-varying copulas, respectively, estimated by maximum likelihood estimation method to describe the dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China. Findings – This paper has identified the asymmetrical dependence structure in financial market volatility more precisely. Gumbel copula could best fit the empirical distribution as it can capture the relatively high dependence degree in the upper tail part corresponding to the period of volatile price fluctuation in both static and dynamic view. Originality/value – Previous scholars mostly use GARCH model to describe the margins for price volatility. As MEM can efficiently characterize the volatility estimators, this paper uses MEM to model the margins for the market volatility directly based on high-frequency data, and proposes a proper distribution for the innovation in the marginal models. Then we could use copula-MEM other than copula-GARCH model to study on the dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China from a microstructural perspective.

Do intraday week effect in currencies hourly trading reflect leverage and asymmetric anomalies? Policy implications for traders

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wajid Shakeel Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Sohaib ◽  
Jamal Maqsood ◽  
Ateeb Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Rational Choices ◽  
Trading Pattern

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine if intraday week (IDW) effect of the currencies reflect leverage and asymmetric impact in currencies market. The study data set comprises of intraday patterns of 15 currencies from developed and emerging economies. Design methodology approach The study applies the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model technique to observe the IDW leverage and asymmetric effect after introducing hourly dummies variables, namely, IDWmon, IDWwed, IDWfrid and IDWfrid-mon. Findings The study results favor the propositions and confirm that IDW effect do exist in the international forex markets in relation to hourly trading pattern for respective currencies. Mostly, currencies do depreciate on Monday and Wednesday compared to the rest of the days. However, on the last trading day, i.e. Friday currencies observe an appreciation pattern which is for both economies. The results have an evidence of leverage and asymmetric effect confirmed by the E-GARCH model as a result of press releases and influence by micro-factors in the currency markets. Practical implications The study believes to have theoretical connection related to the better understanding of currencies trend for developed and emerging economies, as the IDW effect exists. Moreover, confirmation of both the leverage and asymmetric effect in observed currencies would be able to assist the investors in making rational choices during the trading hours and would confirm considerable profits through profit incentivized strategies. Originality value The study not only add knowledge to the previous study work in relation to the hourly trading pattern of currencies with reference to the IDW effects but also highlights the leverage and asymmetric effect in currencies that will help in formulating future trading strategies particular to emerging economies.

scholarly journals Fiscal federalism and accountability in Nigeria: an ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olabanji Olukayode Ewetan ◽  
Romanus Osabohien ◽  
Oluwatoyin Augustina Matthew ◽  
Abiola Ayopo Babajide ◽  
Ese Urhie
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Fiscal Federalism ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between fiscal federalism and accountability in Nigeria. Corruption is a global plague and is endemic in nature. Several policies have been adopted by the Nigerian Government to institutionalize accountability and combat the scourge of corruption that have hindered socio-economic progress but to no avail. Design/methodology/approach Thus, this study examined fiscal federalism and accountability issues in Nigeria using secondary data and used the auto-regressive distributed lag econometric technique to analyse the data. Findings The results from this study reveal that fiscal federalism fails to mitigate corruption in the long run in Nigeria because of poor bureaucratic quality (BQ) and ineffective law and order (LOR). Social implications Fiscal decentralization must be accompanied by legislations that will strengthen BQ of fiscal institutions at subnational levels and promote effective LOR. Originality/value This study recommends that for fiscal federalism to mitigate corruption in the long run, government must adopt appropriate policies to improve BQ and further strengthen LOR in Nigeria. The finding also suggests that to promote public sector accountability in Nigeria, government should ensure the simultaneous decentralization of expenditure and revenue to lower tiers of government. This study provides detailed empirical evidence that fiscal decentralization without accountability will accentuate public sector corruption, and in the long run, weaken local economic development initiative to boost growth and development.

scholarly journals Modelling volatility of Kuala Lumpur composite index (KLCI) using SV and garch models

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1087
Author(s):  
Ezatul Akma Abdullah ◽  
Siti Meriam Zahari ◽  
S.Sarifah Radiah Shariff ◽  
Muhammad Asmu’i Abdul Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Public Holidays

It is well-known that financial time series exhibits changing variance and this can have important consequences in formulating economic or financial decisions. In much recent evidence shows that volatility of financial assets is not constant, but rather that relatively volatile periods alternate with more tranquil ones. Thus, there are many opportunities to obtain forecasts of this time-varying risk. The paper presents the modelling volatility of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) using SV and GARCH models.  Thus, the aim of this study is to model the KLCI stock market using two models; Stochastic Volatility (SV) and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH). This study employs an SV model with Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler; and GARCH model with MLE estimator. The best model will be used to forecast the future volatility of stock returns. The study involves 971 daily observations of KLCI Closing price index, from 2 January 2008 to 10 November 2016, excluding public holidays. SV model is found to be the best based on the lowest RMSE and MAE values.

Corporate governance and risk in cross-listed and Canadian only companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 2740-2757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atreya Chakraborty ◽  
Lucia Gao ◽  
Shahbaz Sheikh
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Differential Effect ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Governance Mechanism ◽  
Firm Risk ◽  
Governance Mechanisms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Corporate Governance Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate if there is a differential effect of corporate governance mechanisms on firm risk in Canadian companies cross-listed on US markets and Canadian companies not cross-listed (Canadian only companies). Design/methodology/approach Using a sample comprised of all Canadian companies included in the S&P/TSX Composite Index for the period 2009–2014, this study applies OLS and fixed effect regressions to investigate the effect of corporate governance mechanisms on firm risk. Interaction variables between governance mechanisms and the cross-listing status are used to examine if this effect is different for cross-listed firms. Findings Results indicate that the effect of board characteristics such as size, independence and proportion of female directors remains the same in both cross-listed and not cross-listed firms. CEO duality and insider equity ownership impact firm risk only in cross-listed companies, while institutional shareholdings, environmental, social and governance disclosure and family control affect firm risk in Canadian only firms. Overall, the empirical results indicate that some governance mechanisms impact firm risk only in firms that cross-list, while others are well-suited for Canadian only firms. Practical implications This study suggests that some of the differences between Canadian companies that cross-list and the Canadian companies that do not cross-list in US stock markets may change the impact of governance mechanisms on firm risk. Therefore, these findings have important implications for the design of governance mechanisms in Canadian firms. Since some of these differences are common to other economies, the conclusions can be extended to companies in other countries with similar governance structures. Originality/value Although previous studies have investigated the effect of governance mechanism on firm risk, this is the first paper that studies the differential effect for companies that cross-list in US markets. Specifically, differences in the ownership structure, firm control and in the regulatory and institutional environment, may explain this differential effect. Unlike most of the previous studies that focus on the effect of individual governance mechanisms, this study uses several mechanisms and their interactions at the same time.

Last hour momentum in the Chinese stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Order Imbalance ◽  
Economic News ◽  
News Releases ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Exchange Traded Fund

PurposeTo capture the last hour momentum over the intraday session, the authors develop a trading strategy for the exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is effective because of the T+0 trading rule. This strategy generates annualized excess return of 9.673%.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors identify a last hour momentum pattern in which the sixth (seventh) half-hour return predicts the next half-hour return by employing high frequency 2012–2017 data from the China Securities Index (CSI) 300 and its ETF.FindingsOverall, both the predictability and the trading strategy are statistically and economically significant. In addition, the strategy performs more strongly on high volatility days, high trading volume days, high order-imbalance days and days without economic news releases than on other days.Originality/valueNoise trading, late-information trading, infrequent rebalancing and disposition effects from retail investors may account for this phenomenon.

Measuring European cultural and creative cities efficiency: a metafrontier DEA approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 891-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justo De Jorge-Moreno ◽  
Virignia De Jorge-Huertas
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Benchmark Analysis ◽  
Creative Cities ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Analysis Methodology

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to conduct a benchmark analysis of European cities based on the estimation of a composite index of efficiency from the dimensions of the Cultural and Creative Cities Monitor 2017 (CCCM). The study helps to initiate a new exploration path based on this information, using a segmentation criterion of countries according to their economic and demographic characteristics, in search of greater comparative homogeneity.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the metafrontier methodological proposal with data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been used to compare the groups of cities individually with their joint reference.FindingsThe results obtained indicate, from a greater control of heterogeneity, through the segmentation of the sample of cities and the metafrontier methodology, that the composite index (IEC3) through the enveloping data analysis methodology (DEA) is more robust than that obtained with the arbitrary assignment of CCCM weights. The analyses carried out make it possible to study and conduct more real and rigorous comparisons of the cities that experience the best practices, unlike other more distant ones. Reference to cities such as Paris, Louvain and Cork could serve as a basis for possible improvements.Originality/valueIt is important to bear in mind that the possible urban policies of a city and the creative strategies and their derived impact are different, because of the diversity in each city. These new comparability possibilities could serve as a tool for economic policy makers, companies and local managers to carry out learning and simulation processes in the improvement of creative cities.

On the unexplained causes of the gender gap in the labour market

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 933-949
Author(s):  
Rosalia Castellano ◽  
Antonella Rocca
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Family Care ◽  
Gender Inequalities ◽  
Capital Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Female Behaviour ◽  
Complex Scenario

PurposeThis paper investigates the causes of the gender gap in the labour market that cannot be explained by classical human capital theory.Design/methodology/approachTo this end, the authors integrate the Gender Gap in the Labour Market Index (GGLMI), a composite index developed in previous research, with further information on some social aspects that could affect the female work commitment, directly or indirectly. In particular, the authors want to verify if family care and home duties, still strongly unbalanced against women, and the welfare system play a significant role in the gender gap.FindingsResults highlight a very complex scenario, characterized by the persistence of gender inequalities everywhere, even if at different degrees, with very strong imbalances in the time spent at work in response to the family commitments.Research limitations/implicationsThe actual determinants of gender disparities in the labour market are very difficult to identify because of the lack of adequate data and the difficulties in measuring some factors determining female behaviour. The additional information used in this research can only partially accomplish this task.Originality/valueHowever, for the first time, this paper uses information on different aspects and causes of the gender gap, including proxies of mainly unobservable aspects, in order to achieve at least partial measurement of this phenomenon.

Forecasting multivariate VaR and ES using MC-GARCH-Copula model

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 493-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemant Kumar Badaye ◽  
Jason Narsoo
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Copula Model ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Foreign Currencies ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Weighted Portfolio

Purpose This study aims to use a novel methodology to investigate the performance of several multivariate value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) models implemented to assess the risk of an equally weighted portfolio consisting of high-frequency (1-min) observations for five foreign currencies, namely, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. Design/methodology/approach By applying the multiplicative component generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MC-GARCH) model on each return series and by modelling the dependence structure using copulas, the 95 per cent intraday portfolio VaR and ES are forecasted for an out-of-sample set using Monte Carlo simulation. Findings In terms of VaR forecasting performance, the backtesting results indicated that four out of the five models implemented could not be rejected at 5 per cent level of significance. However, when the models were further evaluated for their ES forecasting power, only the Student’s t and Clayton models could not be rejected. The fact that some ES models were rejected at 5 per cent significance level highlights the importance of selecting an appropriate copula model for the dependence structure. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use the MC-GARCH and copula models to forecast, for the next 1 min, the VaR and ES of an equally weighted portfolio of foreign currencies. It is also the first study to analyse the performance of the MC-GARCH model under seven distributional assumptions for the innovation term.

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