Accounting for investor sentiment in news and disclosures

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prajwal Eachempati ◽  
Praveen Ranjan Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Financial Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Corporate Disclosures

Purpose This study aims to develop two sentiment indices sourced from news stories and corporate disclosures of the firms in the National Stock Exchange NIFTY 50 Index by extracting sentiment polarity. Subsequently, the two indices would be compared for the predictive accuracy of the stock market and stock returns during the post-digitization period 2011–2018. Based on the findings this paper suggests various options for financial strategy. Design/methodology/approach The news- and disclosure-based sentiment indices are developed using sentiment polarity extracted from qualitative content from news and corporate disclosures, respectively, using qualitative analysis tool “N-Vivo.” The indices developed are compared for stock market predictability using quantitative regression techniques. Thus, the study is conducted using both qualitative data and tools and quantitative techniques. Findings This study shows that the investor is more magnetized to news than towards corporate disclosures though disclosures contain both qualitative as well as quantitative information on the fundamentals of a firm. This study is extended to sectoral indices, and the results show that specific sectoral news impacts sectoral indices intensely over market news. It is found that the market discounts information in disclosures prior to its release. As disclosures in quarterly statements are delayed information input, firms can use voluntary disclosures to reduce the communication gap with investors by using the internet. Managers would do so only when the stock price is undervalued and tend to ignore the market and the shareholder in other cases. Otherwise, disclosure sentiment attracts only long horizon traders. Practical implications Finance managers need to improve disclosure dependence on investors by innovative disclosure methodologies irrespective of the ruling market price. In this context, future studies on investor sentiment would be interesting as they need to capture man–machine interactions reflected in market sentiment showing the interplay of human biases with machine-driven decisions. The findings would be useful in developing the financial strategy for protecting firm value. Originality/value This study is unique in providing a comparative analysis of sentiment extracted from news and corporate disclosures for explaining the stock market direction and stock returns and contributes to the behavioral finance literature.

scholarly journals The Linkage between Sentiments and Stock Market Dynamics New Evidence from Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Heshmatollah Asgari ◽  
Hamed Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Research Criteria ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In recent years, the issue of financial behaviour and the impact of investors’ sentiments on their decision making have become such a popular issue. The sentiments of financial activists affect the market price of financial assets and particularly stocks, and therefore it is included in the new pricing models of capital assets. In this article, we seek the effect of investors’ sentiments on the dynamics of the Iranian stock market (TSE). To do this, among the companies accepted in the stock market we select 120, considering the research criteria and screening method, we examined TSE specifics throughout 2010-2018 using regression analysis and causality test. Our results show that firstly investors’ sentiments have a direct effect on the stock returns and there is a bilateral relationship between them. Secondly, inflation has the opposite effect and economic growth has a direct and positive effect on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns. Finally, government spending has no significant effect on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns.

Investor sentiment, customer satisfaction and stock returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 827-850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Lu Peng ◽  
Kuan-Ling Lai ◽  
Maio-Ling Chen ◽  
An-Pin Wei
Keyword(s):  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Intangible Asset ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Emotional States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intangible Information

Purpose – This study aims to investigate whether and how different sentiments affect the stock market’s reaction to the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) information. Design/methodology/approach – The portfolio approach, with time-varying risk factor loadings and the asset-pricing models, is borrowed from the finance literature to investigate the ACSI-performance relationship. A direct sentiment index is used to examine how investors’ optimistic, neutral and pessimistic sentiments affect the aforementioned relation. Findings – This paper finds that customer satisfaction is a valuable intangible asset that generates positive abnormal returns. On average, investing in the Strong-ACSI Portfolio is superior to investing in the market index. Even when the stock market holds pessimistic beliefs, investors can beat the market by investing in firms that score well on customer satisfaction. The out-performance of our zero-cost, long–short ACSI strategy also confirms the mispricing of ACSI information in pessimistic periods. Research limitations/implications – Findings are limited to firms covered by the ACSI data. Practical implications – Finance research has further documented evidence of the stock market under-reacting to intangible information. For example, firms with higher research and development expenditures, advertising, patent citations and employee satisfaction all earn superior returns. Literature also proves that investors efficiently react to tangible information, whereas they undervalue intangible information. In summary, combining our results and those reported in the literature, customer satisfaction is value-relevant for both investors and firm management, particularly in pessimistic periods. Originality/value – This study is the first to investigate how sentiment affects the positive ACSI-performance relationship, while considering the time-varying property of risk factors. This study is also the first to show that ACSI plays a more important role during pessimistic periods. This study contributes to the growing literature on the marketing–finance interface by providing better understanding of how investor emotional states affect their perceptions and valuations of customer satisfaction.

On the dynamic relationship between gold investor sentiment index and stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-392
Author(s):  
Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Dynamic Relationship

Purpose Considering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market return, as well as that between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market volatility, using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The author presents and discusses the findings both for the full sample and at the industry level. The results support prior literature that stocks in different industries do not react similarly to investor sentiment. Design/methodology/approach The PVAR methodology with the GMM estimation is found to be superior to other static panel methodologies due to considering both unobservable time-invariant and time-variant factors, as well as being suitable for relatively short time periods. The panel data approach improves the statistical power of the tests and ensures more reliable results. Findings In general, a negative and unidirectional association from gold investor sentiment to stock returns is observed. However, the gold sentiment-stock realized volatility relationship is negative and bidirectional, and there exists a greater impact of a stock’s realized volatility on gold investor sentiment. Importantly, evidence at the industry level is stronger than that at the aggregate level in both return and volatility cases, confirming the role of gold investor sentiment in the Thai stock market. The capital flow effect and the contagion effect explain the gold sentiment-stock return relationship and the gold sentiment-stock volatility relationship, respectively. Research limitations/implications The gold price sentiment index can be used as a factor for stock return predictability and stock realized volatility predictability in the Thai equity market. Practical implications Practitioners and traders can employ the gold price sentiment index to make a profit in the stock market in Thailand. Originality/value This is the first paper to use panel data to investigate the relationships between the gold investor sentiment and stock returns and between the gold investor sentiment and stocks’ realized volatility, respectively.

Does idiosyncratic risk matter? Evidence from mergers and acquisitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 313-329
Author(s):  
Pascal Nguyen ◽  
Younes Ben Zaied ◽  
Thu Phuong Pham
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Acquisition Announcements

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether idiosyncratic volatility is a priced risk factor in the Australian stock market. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the change in idiosyncratic volatility around acquisition announcements and the related stock price revaluation to test whether the idiosyncratic risk is priced. If the idiosyncratic risk is priced, increases (decreases) in idiosyncratic volatility should be associated with decreases (increases) in the acquirer’s stock price, as the latter’s future cash flows are discounted at a higher (lower) rate. The sample consists of 2,656 completed acquisitions by Australian listed firms over the period January 1990 to October 2014 for which deal value represents more than 5 per cent of the acquirer’s market value. Findings Increases (decreases) in idiosyncratic risk are associated with significant decreases (increases) in firm value. This negative relationship is robust to the presence of outliers; is unaffected by the incidence of the 2007-2008 financial crisis; holds using alternative measures of idiosyncratic risk; and is more significant after excluding the resources sector. Firms with a higher idiosyncratic risk prior to the acquisition, and firms avoiding stock to pay for the acquisition, experience a more significant stock price increase in relation to a decrease in idiosyncratic risk. Research limitations/implications Considering the small size of the Australian economy, investors may have less scope to mitigate idiosyncratic risk. As a consequence, idiosyncratic risk is associated with the positive excess return, contrary to what standard asset pricing theory assumes. The results support Merton’s (1987) hypothesis that investors are exposed to idiosyncratic risk due to imperfect portfolio diversification and receive compensation for bearing that risk. Practical implications The pricing of idiosyncratic risk may also explain why the Australian stock market has historically offered a high equity risk premium. A practical implication would be for international investors to take advantage of the diversification constraints of local investors to capture higher risk premiums and achieve superior returns. Originality/value While prior studies demonstrate that stocks with higher idiosyncratic risk are associated with higher subsequent returns, the authors show that an increase in idiosyncratic risk is associated with a decrease in stock prices using acquisition announcements as shocks to a firm’s idiosyncratic risk. In other words, the results arise from within-firm variations rather than from cross-sectional differences in stock returns.

Short selling regulation, return volatility and market volatility in the Athens Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charilaos Mertzanis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Short Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulation Policy ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The relationship between short selling, market volatility and liquidity remains an object of intensive research. However, empirical evidence is yet to provide a conclusive elucidation of this relationship by examining aspects of market fragmentation in the form of different market settings, different timing and different stocks under coverage, among others. This paper aims to contribute to the debate by investigating the impact of short selling on market volatility and liquidity in the Athens Exchange (ATHEX) under three different periods of short sales restrictions. Design/methodology/approach Two hypotheses are tested using econometric methodologies (co-integration and Granger-causality tools). Findings The empirical results indicate that when short selling is allowed, aggregate stock returns are in the short-term more volatile, but the liquidity of the market is not significantly affected. This might be the result of significant imbalances between supply and demand of stock caused by short-selling restrictions, leading to market price fluctuations. Research limitations/implications The analysis of empirical evidence needs further expansion and association with institutional firm-level and country-level elements to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of short selling on market volatility and liquidity. Practical implications Stock market regulation involving short-selling restrictions have different implications according to extent and degree of stringency of the restrictions as well as the market on which they are imposed. That is especially important for the assessment of the market impact of the recent European Union regulation on short selling that has been imposed upon all EU member-States alike. Social implications Financial regulation policy must balance the benefits and costs for retail investors of imposing short-selling restrictions on stock market trading. Originality/value First-time empirical evidence is provided on the impact of short selling regulations on market volatility and liquidity of ATHEX highlighting the potential effectiveness of regulation policy.

The relationship between individual investor sentiment, stock return and volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 504-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Sayim ◽  
Hamid Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Turkish individual investor sentiment on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and to investigate whether investor sentiment, stock return and volatility in Turkey are related. Design/methodology/approach – This study used the monthly Turkish Consumer Confidence Index, published by the Turkish Statistical Institute, as a proxy for individual investor sentiments. First, Turkish market fundamentals were regressed on investor sentiments in order to capture the effects of macroeconomic risk factors on investor sentiments. Then, it used the impulse response functions (IRFs) generated from the vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the effect of unanticipated movements in Turkish investor sentiment to both stock returns and volatility of the ISE. Findings – The generalized IRFs from VAR shows that unexpected changes in rational and irrational investor sentiment have a significant positive impact on ISE returns. This suggests that a positive investor sentiment tends to increase ISE returns. The study also documents that unanticipated increase in the rational component of Turkish investor sentiment has a negative significant effect on ISE volatility. This might indicate that investors have optimistic expectations of the economy overall with respect to market fundamentals in Turkey. This optimism can result in creating positive expectations, reducing uncertainty, and reducing the volatility of stock market returns. Research limitations/implications – The study was applied only for the period 2004-2010 on the ISE stock returns and volatility. Practical implications – Regardless, investors should know the impact of irrational investor sentiments while establishing investment strategies. The results of this study may also help policy makers stabilize investor sentiments to reduce stock market volatility and uncertainty. Originality/value – This paper adds to the limited understanding of investor sentiment impact on stock return and volatility in an emerging market context.

Does investor sentiment differently affect stocks in different sectors? Evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongli Niu ◽  
Yao Lu ◽  
Weiqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Frequency Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Normal Period

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the investor sentiment and the return of various sectors in the Chinese stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe wavelet coherence and wavelet phase angle approaches are used to study the lead–lag associations between sentiment index and stock returns in a time–frequency way. The multiscale linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are performed to explore whether there is a causality between them.FindingsThe empirical results show that during normal period, investor sentiment index has a stronger relationship with stock returns of industrials, consumer discretionary, health care, utilities, real estate and financial sectors. In crisis period, investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with all industry sectors. In the short term, there is bidirectional causality between investor sentiment and stock returns of all sectors. In the medium and long run, almost all sector stock returns Granger-cause the investors' sentiment index but investor sentiment does not Granger-cause all sectors, which is in contrast to the developed markets.Practical implicationsThe interindustry impact of investment sentiment on the stock market can help construct arbitrage portfolio by investors who are interested in Chinese stock market.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on the industry sector differences of investor sentiment impact on the Chinese stock market. As far as the authors know, this is the first paper to explore the time–frequency relationship between sentiment index and industry stock returns in China using the time–frequency method based on wavelet coherence, which considers the heterogeneity of different types of investors' responses to various economic and financial events.

Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreenu N ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Return Volatility

PurposeIn any stock market, volatility is a significant factor in strengthening their asset pricing. The upsurge in volatility in the stock market can activate and bring changes in the financial risk. According to financial conventional theory, the stakeholders (investors) are selected to be balanced and variations in pertinent risk are also to be anticipated due to the outcome of the drive-in basic factors in Indian stock markets. The hypothesis shows that there are actions in systematic and unsystematic risks that are determined by volatility. It is allied to sentiment-driven in the trader movement.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the methodology of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in mean GARCH-M and exponential GARCH-M (E-GARCH-M) methods on the Indian stock market. The data have been covered from 2000 to 2019.FindingsFinally, the study suggests that due to the unfitness of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the selection has enhanced with sentiment is an important risk factor.Practical implicationsThe investor sentiment and stock return volatility statement are established by using the investor sentiment amalgamated stock market index built.Originality/valueThe outcome of the study shows that there is an important association between stakeholder (investor) sentiment and stock return, in case of volatility behavioural finance can significantly explain the behaviour of stock returns on the Indian Stock Exchange.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

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