scholarly journals Arbitrage opportunities, efficiency, and the role of risk preferences in the Hong Kong property market

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 735-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Kei Tsang ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong ◽  
Ira Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Small Body ◽  
Total Yield ◽  
Risk Preference ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how a prospective buyer’s optimal home-size purchase can be determined by means of a stochastic-dominance (SD) analysis of the historical data of Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach By means of SD analysis, the paper uses monthly property yields in Hong Kong over a 15-year period to illustrate how buyers of different risk preference may optimize their home-size purchase. Findings Regardless of whether the buyer eschews risk, embraces risk or is indifferent to it, in any adjacent pairing of five well-defined housing classes, the smaller class provides the optimal purchase. In addition, risk-averters focusing on total yield would prefer to invest in the smallest and second-smallest classes than in the largest class. Research limitations/implications As the smaller class provides the optimal purchase, the smallest class affords the buyer the optimal purchase over all classes in this important housing market – at least where rental yields are of primary concern. Practical implications The findings suggest that in the Hong Kong housing market, long-term investors may be better off purchasing smaller homes. For other type of investors, it depends on their risk preference. Originality/value There is a very small body of empirical literature on housing investment, especially if the focus is on the optimal home-size purchase.

Rent or buy, what are the odds? Analysing the price-to-rent ratio for housing types within the Northern Ireland housing market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lo ◽  
Michael James McCord ◽  
John McCord ◽  
Peadar Thomas Davis ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Main Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
Price Series ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The price-to-rent ratio is often regarded as an important indicator for measuring housing market imbalance and inefficiency. A central question is the extent to which house prices and rents form part of the same market and thus whether they respond similarly to parallel stimulus. If they are close proxies dynamically, then this provides valuable market intelligence, particularly where causal relationships are evident. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the relationship between market and rental pricing to uncover the price switching dynamics of residential real estate property types and whether the deviation between market rents and prices are integrated over both the long- and short-term. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses cointegration, Wald exogeneity tests and Granger causality models to determine the existence, if any, of cointegration and lead-lag relationships between prices and rents within the Belfast property market, as well as the price-to-rent ratios amongst its five main property sub-markets over the time period M4, 2014 to M12 2018. Findings The findings provide some novel insights in relation to the pricing dynamics within Belfast. Housing and rental prices are cointegrated suggesting that they tend to move in tandem in the long run. It is further evident that in the short-run, the price series Granger-causes that of rents inferring that sales price information unidirectionally diffuse to the rental market. Further, the findings on price-to-rent ratios reveal that the detached sector appears to Granger-cause those of other property types except apartments in both the short- and long-term, suggesting possible spill-over of pricing signals from the top-end to the lower strata of the market. Originality/value The importance of understanding the relationship between house prices and rental market performance has gathered momentum. Although the house price-rent ratio is widely used as an indicator of over and undervaluation in the housing market, surprisingly little is known about the theoretical relationship between the price-rent ratio across property types and their respective inter-relationships.

Residential property market determinants: evidence from the 2018 Australian market downturn

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-175
Author(s):  
Peng Yew Wong ◽  
Woon-Weng Wong ◽  
Kwabena Mintah
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Residential Market ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to validate and uncover the key determinants revolving around the Australian residential market downturn towards the 2020s. Design/methodology/approach Applying well-established time series econometric methods over a decade of data set provided by Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia and Real Capital Analytics, the significant and emerging drivers impacting the Australian residential property market performance are explored. Findings Besides changes in the significant levels of some key traditional market drivers, housing market capital liquidity and cross-border investment fund were found to significantly impact the Australian residential property market between 2017 and 2019. The presence of some major positive economic conditions such as low interest rate, sustainable employment and population growth was perceived inadequate to uplift the Australian residential property market. The Australian housing market has performed negatively during this period mainly due to diminishing capital liquidity, excess housing supplies and retreating foreign investors. Practical implications A better understanding of the leading and emerging determinants of the residential property market will assist the policy makers to make sound decisions and effective policy changes based on the latest development in the Australian housing market. The results also provide a meaningful path for future property investments and investigations that explore country-specific effects through a comparative analysis. Originality/value The housing market determinants examined in this study revolve around the wider economic conditions in Australia that are not new. However, the coalesce analysis on the statistical results and the current housing market trends revealed some distinguishing characteristics and developments towards the 2020s Australian residential property market downturn.

scholarly journals House price cycles in emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Ciarlone
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Small Body ◽  
House Price ◽  
Hedonic Pricing ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Index Number ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the characteristics of house price dynamics for a sample of 16 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe over the period of 1995-2011. Design/methodology/approach – Linking housing valuations to a set of conventional fundamental determinants – relative to both the supply and the demand side of the market, institutional factors and other asset prices – and modelling short-term price dynamics – which reflect gradual adjustment to underlying fundamentals –conclusions about the existence and the basic nature of house price overvaluation (undervaluation) are drawn. Findings – Overall, it was found that actual house prices in the sample of emerging economies are not overly disconnected from fundamentals. Rather, they tend to reflect a somewhat slow adjustment to shocks to the latter. Moreover, the evidence that housing valuations may be driven by overly optimistic (or pessimistic) expectations is, in general, weak. Research limitations/implications – Residential property prices used in the empirical analysis have many limitations: while some series are derived using a hedonic pricing method, others are based on floor area prices collected by national authorities; while some countries publish house prices in national currency per-square metre (or per apartment or per dwelling), others calculate an index number scaled to some base year; while some countries publish statistics for the whole national territory, others produce data only for the capital city or for the largest cities in the country; data from national sources refer to different types of residential property; finally, available time series are relatively short, which may adversely affect the robustness of estimation results. Practical implications – The decomposition suggested in the paper has important implications: it would be paramount, in fact, for policymakers to implement market-specific diagnoses, and to find the right policy instruments that can ideally distinguish between the two underlying components driving house price short-run dynamics. Originality/value – There is a very small body of empirical literature on housing market developments in emerging economies, especially if focussed on the comparisons between the actual dynamics of housing valuations and the equilibrium ones.

Market response to land auction events: a transaction volume approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-26
Author(s):  
Shuk Man Chiu ◽  
Kwong Wing Chau ◽  
Yung Yau
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Small Body ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Trading Activities ◽  
Secondary Housing Market ◽  
Stock Transaction ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the response of transaction volume in Hong Kong’s housing market to public land auctions. Design/methodology/approach – An event study approach with the use of regression analyses was adopted for the empirical study. Findings – Fewer pre-event transactions in the secondary housing spot market come with greater dispersion in the pre-event forecasts of land auction outcomes. Unexpected auction outcomes were also found to minify the post-event transaction volume in the secondary housing spot market, with negative unexpected outcomes exerting a stronger downward force. Research limitations/implications – These findings are contrary to the empirical evidence commonly found in most financial literature on stock transaction volume around corporate earnings announcements with an assumption of negligible transaction costs. Imperfect market structure, differences in sellers’ and buyers’ characteristics and short-sale restriction may explain the disparity. Practical implications – Price in the secondary housing market is more sensitive to negative unexpected land auction outcomes. The analysis results of the current study attest that the impact exerted by the negative unexpected auction outcomes on transaction volume in the housing spot market is stronger than that of positive unexpected auction outcomes. Originality/value – Unlike price and return, transaction volume has not received substantial academic attention in property research. In particular, within the existing small body of transaction volume research, the impact of information events on trading activities has been largely ignored.

scholarly journals The securitization of residential rental revenue streams in Europe

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Roig Hernando
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Rental Housing ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Investment Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Residential Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the securitization of rental streams, a new investment and finance product introduced in the USA in 2013 that enables fundraising from large residential portfolios owned by major investment funds and investment banking. The securities are made up of non-performance loans as well as real estate portfolios of financial entities. Design/methodology/approach An academic analysis of the European securitization market is performed, as well as a broad overview of the state of the art of the rental housing market and investment property market. Moreover, a market study of Real Estate Owned (hereinafter, REOs) and Real Estate Debts is carried out to determine both the present framework and future trends. Various financial entities and real estate management companies are examined through interviews and data collection to assess the reality of distressed assets and residential portfolios owned by major investors. It introduced the Broker’s Price Opinion concept, de loan-to-value concept and the London Interbank Offered Rate. Findings REO-to-rental securitization is a step forward toward the democratization of finance through the globalization of the residential market, improving risk sharing for major and retail investors. The securitization of rental streams in Europe has not taken off, despite several issuances in the USA since 2013 with significant success where first tranches obtained a credit qualification of triple-A from the majority of the main rating agencies. Originality/value At the end of 2013, a global investment firm launched an innovative finance and investment vehicle that securitized the cash flows originating from leased residential properties. That issue resulted in considerable success and in the development of a new alternative and innovative financing source for real estate activity. Taking into account that housing is a primary need of our society, there is a strong motivation for improving the residential market, and thus, REO-to-rental securitization could help take a step forward in making the housing market more efficient.

Modelling energy retrofit investments in the UK housing market

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Adan ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Efficiency Measures ◽  
Energy Retrofit ◽  
Efficiency Measures ◽  
The Uk

Purpose – Improving the energy efficiency of the existing residential building stock has been identified as a key policy aim in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to review the extant literature on investment decisions in domestic energy efficiency and presents a model that is both grounded in microeconomic theory and empirically tractable. Design/methodology/approach – This study develops a modified and extended version of an existing microeconomic model to embed the retrofit investment decision in a residential property market context, taking into account tenants’ willingness to pay and cost-reducing synergies. A simple empirical test of the link between energy efficiency measures and housing market dynamics is then conducted. Findings – The empirical data analysis for England indicates that where house prices are low, energy efficiency measures tend to increase the value of a house more in relative terms compared to higher-priced regions. Second, where housing markets are tight, landlords and sellers will be successful even without investing in energy efficiency measures. Third, where wages and incomes are low, the potential gains from energy savings make up a larger proportion of those incomes compared to more affluent regions. This, in turn, acts as a further incentive for an energy retrofit. Finally, the UK government has been operating a subsidy scheme which allows all households below a certain income threshold to have certain energy efficiency measures carried out for free. In regions, where a larger proportion of households are eligible for these subsidies,the authors also expect a larger uptake. Originality/value – While the financial metrics of retrofit measures are by now well understood, most of the existing studies tend to view these investments in isolation, not as part of a larger bundle of considerations by landlords and owners of how energy retrofits might influence a property’s rent, price and appreciation rate. In this paper, the authors argue that establishing this link is crucial for a better understanding of the retrofit investment decision.

Hong Kong's fiscal largesse will fail to buy support

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Public Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Anxiety ◽  
The City

Significance The budget aims to stimulate economic growth and help small businesses and lower-income residents by redistributing public funds amounting to 34 billion Hong Kong dollars (4.4 billion US dollars). Also prominent are measures intended to quell economic anxiety that helped fuel large pro-democracy protests that shut down parts of the city centre for nearly three months between September and December last year. Impacts A cooling property market could relieve some economic frustration. Fears of investors fleeing Hong Kong are overplayed; the financial regime is entirely stable and there are few alternatives. Economic and political grievances will combine to feed an increasingly overt hostility to the mainland's government and citizens. The single most popular action the government could take would probably be to restrict mainland immigration, upsetting Beijing as a result.

House price overvaluation in Hong Kong

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Arestis ◽  
Ana Rosa Gonzalez-Martinez ◽  
Lu-kui Jia
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the authors investigate the main drivers of house prices in the Hong Kong housing market. Second, further research is undertaken to confirm the existence of house price overvaluation, which has driven the market into a bubble episode. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors propose a theoretical framework to identify the fundamentals of the market. In the second step, they decompose house prices into fundamentals, frictions and bubble episodes for a better understanding of the evolution of house prices during the period 1996(Q3)-2013(Q3). Findings The results of this paper suggest an eventual possible correction of up to 46 per cent of house prices with respect to their 2013(Q3) level. Originality/value The originality of this paper is to use the procedure developed by Glindro and Delloro (2010) to analyse the Hong Kong housing market. The contribution of this paper also modifies the original Glindro and Delloro’s (2010) approach by including the Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) filter to decompose house prices.

scholarly journals A hedonic model of the association between grocery brand provision and residential rental prices in England

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Clark ◽  
Nick Hood ◽  
Mark Birkin
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Consumer Choice ◽  
Service Provision ◽  
Hedonic Model ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Retail Grocery ◽  
Web Platform

Purpose This study aims to measure the association between local retail grocery provision and private residential rental prices in England. Renting is an important sector of the housing market in England and local grocery provision is an important aspect of service provision and consumers are known to be highly sensitive to the branding of this type of retailing. Design/methodology/approach This research uses a novel data source from a property rental Web platform to estimate a hedonic model for the rental market. These models incorporate information on the nature of the properties and their neighbourhoods, with an emphasis on how different retail brands are associated with rental prices. This retail brand is captured on two scales: the provision of local branded convenience stores and the provision of larger stores. Findings The study finds clear differentials in how the local grocery brand is associated with rental prices. When controlling for commonly explored confounding factors, “Luxury” retailers such as Waitrose and Marks and Spencer are associated with higher rental prices, while “Discounter” retailers are associated with lower rental prices. This finding has many implications, particularly in relation to potential price changes in an already challenging housing market for many people. Research limitations/implications This is an observational study and as such only associations (not causation) can be implied by these findings. Originality/value The focus of this research is on the private residential property market, an important market in England but one that has enjoyed less scrutiny than the sales or socially rented markets. Rather than using general accessibility to retail, this research has differentiated the association by the retail brand and store size, two very important aspects of consumer choice.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-501
Author(s):  
Charles Leung ◽  
◽  
Tin Cheuk Leung ◽  
Kwok Ping Tsang ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Cutoff Points ◽  
Market Transaction ◽  
Stamp Duty ◽  
Transaction Tax

We study the implications of a property market transaction tax. As property buyers are obligated to pay a transaction tax ("stamp duty¨ or SD) where the rate increases with the value of the transaction, there are incentives to trade at the cutoff points of the tax schedule or just below them. Thus, both ¡§bunching in transactions¡¨ and ¡§underpricing¡¨ should be observed near those cutoffs. Furthermore, the bunching points should change with the tax schedule. We confirm these conjectures with a rich dataset from the Hong Kong housing market and provide a measure of tax avoidance.

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