House price overvaluation in Hong Kong

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Arestis ◽  
Ana Rosa Gonzalez-Martinez ◽  
Lu-kui Jia
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the authors investigate the main drivers of house prices in the Hong Kong housing market. Second, further research is undertaken to confirm the existence of house price overvaluation, which has driven the market into a bubble episode. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors propose a theoretical framework to identify the fundamentals of the market. In the second step, they decompose house prices into fundamentals, frictions and bubble episodes for a better understanding of the evolution of house prices during the period 1996(Q3)-2013(Q3). Findings The results of this paper suggest an eventual possible correction of up to 46 per cent of house prices with respect to their 2013(Q3) level. Originality/value The originality of this paper is to use the procedure developed by Glindro and Delloro (2010) to analyse the Hong Kong housing market. The contribution of this paper also modifies the original Glindro and Delloro’s (2010) approach by including the Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) filter to decompose house prices.

Rent or buy, what are the odds? Analysing the price-to-rent ratio for housing types within the Northern Ireland housing market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lo ◽  
Michael James McCord ◽  
John McCord ◽  
Peadar Thomas Davis ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Main Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
Price Series ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The price-to-rent ratio is often regarded as an important indicator for measuring housing market imbalance and inefficiency. A central question is the extent to which house prices and rents form part of the same market and thus whether they respond similarly to parallel stimulus. If they are close proxies dynamically, then this provides valuable market intelligence, particularly where causal relationships are evident. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the relationship between market and rental pricing to uncover the price switching dynamics of residential real estate property types and whether the deviation between market rents and prices are integrated over both the long- and short-term. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses cointegration, Wald exogeneity tests and Granger causality models to determine the existence, if any, of cointegration and lead-lag relationships between prices and rents within the Belfast property market, as well as the price-to-rent ratios amongst its five main property sub-markets over the time period M4, 2014 to M12 2018. Findings The findings provide some novel insights in relation to the pricing dynamics within Belfast. Housing and rental prices are cointegrated suggesting that they tend to move in tandem in the long run. It is further evident that in the short-run, the price series Granger-causes that of rents inferring that sales price information unidirectionally diffuse to the rental market. Further, the findings on price-to-rent ratios reveal that the detached sector appears to Granger-cause those of other property types except apartments in both the short- and long-term, suggesting possible spill-over of pricing signals from the top-end to the lower strata of the market. Originality/value The importance of understanding the relationship between house prices and rental market performance has gathered momentum. Although the house price-rent ratio is widely used as an indicator of over and undervaluation in the housing market, surprisingly little is known about the theoretical relationship between the price-rent ratio across property types and their respective inter-relationships.

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-270
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Peter van Gool
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dutch Housing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace. Design/methodology/approach A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique). Findings Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern. Originality/value Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.

scholarly journals Uncertainty shocks and policymakers’ behavior: evidence from the subprime crisis era

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 578-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Donadelli
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
The Usa

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the 2007-2009 uncertainty shocks on policymakers’ behavior. Design/methodology/approach – Uncertainty shocks in the US credit, financial and production markets are represented by extraordinary events. As in Bloom (2009), these events are associated with significant economic and political shocks (e.g. Lehman Brothers’ collapse). Credit markets uncertainty shocks, which played a crucial role in the aftermath of the house prices collapse in the USA, are first analyzed in a bivariate VAR context, and then, embodied in a simple theoretical framework. Findings – The empirical evidence suggests that the US credit, financial and production markets have been affected by a relative large number of uncertainty shocks (i.e. rare events). In a Brainard’s (1967) uncertainty scenario, it is shown that a bizarre money-liquidity relationship exacerbates the “policymakers’ cautiousness-aggressiveness trade-off.” In addition, the model suggests that a “double” dose of policy, in presence of a global credit crunch, might be useless. Originality/value – This paper improves the existing literature in two main directions. First, it provides novel empirical evidence on the unusual dynamics of the US credit market and its effects on the real economic activity during the crisis. Second, in a very simple theoretical framework accounting for parameter uncertainty, it addresses whether a bizarre money-credit relationship affects policymakers’ behavior (i.e. cautiousness vs aggressiveness).

Regional economic divergence and house prices: a comparison of Germany and the UK

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 722-735
Author(s):  
Benedikt Blaseio ◽  
Colin Jones
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Divergence ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Increasing regional wealth disparities have been explained by the role of agglomeration economies and the concentration of skilled mobile human capital. This paper aims to draw out the role of the housing market by considering the differential experience of Germany and the UK. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is based on the comparison of regional house price trends in Germany and UK-based annual data from 1991 to 2015. Findings Regional house price inequality is found to have increased in both countries with the spatial concentration of skilled human capital. However, the main conclusion is that there are differential paths to regional house price inequality explained by the parameters of each country’s housing market. Originality/value The research is the first to compare and explain differential regional house price trends across countries.

scholarly journals Park proximity, crime and apartment prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asifa Iqbal ◽  
Mats Wilhelmsson
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Geographic Information Systems ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
House Price ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shortest Distance ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
The Impact

Purpose There is a lack of understanding in the literature on the relation between parks and house price in relation to crime in Scandinavian context. This paper aims to investigate the effect of the amenity value of accessibility to parks on apartment prices with reference to crime rates in parks in Stockholm. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses the effects of park proximity and crime in parks on apartment prices by using geographic information systems and hedonic modelling. Findings Findings show that the proximity of parks as an environmental amenity has an effect on apartment prices. The results also demonstrate that the impact of parks on apartment prices is different in the different segments of the apartment market in Stockholm. Moreover, various types of parks may differ in their impact, for instance, grass parks and park blocks are more desirable in Stockholm than landscape parks and neighbourhood parks. The effects of crimes in parks influence apartment prices negatively. Originality/value This paper provides a new methodology by using the shortest distance to a park as a main variable. The shortest distance to a park variable is considered a better choice than using park as an aggregate measure. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the effect of specific park types, for instance, grass parks, neighbourhood parks, landscape parks and park blocks, in Stockholm housing market.

scholarly journals House prices and neighbourhood amenities: beyond the norm?

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael James McCord ◽  
Peadar Thomas Davis ◽  
Paul Bidanset ◽  
William McCluskey ◽  
John McCord ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conditional Quantiles ◽  
Price Distribution ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Understanding the key locational and neighbourhood determinants and their accessibility is a topic of great interest to policymakers, planners and property valuers. In Northern Ireland, the high level of market segregation means that it is problematic to understand the nature of the relationship between house prices and the accessibility to services and prominent neighbourhood landmarks and amenities. Therefore, this paper aims to quantify and measure the (dis)amenity effects on house pricing levels within particular geographic housing sub-markets. Design/methodology/approach Most hedonic models are estimated using regression techniques which produce one coefficient for the entirety of the pricing distribution, culminating in a single marginal implicit price. This paper uses a quantile regression (QR) approach that provides a “more complete” depiction of the marginal impacts for different quantiles of the price distribution using sales data obtained from 3,780 house sales transactions within the Belfast Housing market over 2014. Findings The findings emerging from this research demonstrate that housing and market characteristics are valued differently across the quantile values and that conditional quantiles are asymmetrical. Pertinently, the findings demonstrate that ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficient estimates have a tendency to over or under specify the marginal mean conditional pricing effects because of their inability to adequately capture and comprehend the complex spatial relationships which exist across the pricing distribution. Originality value Numerous studies have used OLS regression to measure the impact of key housing market externalities on house prices, providing a single estimate. This paper uses a QR approach to examine the impact of local amenities on house prices across the house price distribution.

scholarly journals Spatial–temporal neighbourhood-level house price index

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 386-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Sipan ◽  
Abdul Hamid Mar Iman ◽  
Muhammad Najib Razali
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
House Price Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gis Application ◽  
Statistical Application ◽  
Neighbourhood Level ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop a spatio-temporal neighbourhood-level house price index (STNL-HPI) incorporating a geographic information system (GIS) functionality that can be used to improve the house price indexation system. Design/methodology/approach By using the Malaysian house price index (MHPI) and application of geographically weighted regression (GWR), GIS-based analysis of STNL-HPI through an application called LHPI Viewer v.1.0.0, the stand-alone GIS-statistical application for STNL-HPI was successfully developed in this study. Findings The overall results have shown that the modelling and GIS application were able to help users understand the visual variation of house prices across a particular neighbourhood. Research limitations/implications This research was only able to acquire data from the federal government over the period 1999 to 2006 because of budget limitations. Data purchase was extremely costly. Because of financial constraints, data with lower levels of accuracy have been obtained from other sources. As a consequence, a major portion of data was mismatched because of the absence of a common parcel identifier, which also affected the comparison of this system to other comparable systems. Originality/value Neighbourhood-level HPI is needed for a better understanding of the local housing market.

Heterogeneous housing markets: structural implications for pricing and risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trond A. Borgersen
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Response ◽  
Market Framework ◽  
House Price Risk

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare the structure of risk and the structure of pricing in housing markets where the interaction between segments is taken into account with the structures that come about in a housing market approach that ignores this interplay. Knowing how most empirical assessments of whether housing markets are in or out of equilibrium is related to macroeconomic variables and is ignoring the interplay between segments our aim is to highlight the extent to which a homogeneous market framework underestimates pricing and risk in real housing markets. Design/methodology/approach – Framed in terms of a linearized housing market with two segments, the author derives expressions for house prices and house price risk in three scenarios. The author compares the structure of pricing and the structure of risk in a homogeneous housing market with those of two distinct heterogeneous housing markets where segments are linked as well analyzing as how prices and risk responds to shocks. Findings – The author derives expressions for market segment prices and for the house price index in three distinct housing market scenarios and shows how heterogeneous housing market frameworks produce both expressions for house prices and for house price risk, as well as a response in both risk and prices to shocks to demand, that deviate from those of a homogeneous housing market framework. While significantly underestimating house price risk a homogeneous framework might also be taken by surprise of the price response accompanying shocks to demand. Originality/value – The authors' simplistic expressions for house prices and house price risk provides a framework for bringing two distinct theoretical housing market camps onto the same playing field. The approach shows the value added of taking the interplay between market segments into account when analyzing housing market developments.

scholarly journals The sources of house price change: identifying liquidity shocks to the housing market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paloma Taltavull de La Paz ◽  
Michael White
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of monetary liquidity in house price evolution through examining the Asset (housing) Inflation channel. It identifies the main channels of transmission affecting house prices from monetary supply channels to house price change, examining how the Asset Price channel transmits changes in M1 to housing prices in Spain and the UK. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Error Correction models to test the Asset Inflation channel in the UK and Spain from 1991 to 2013 in two steps. In the first step, the supply elasticity is estimated through the long-term relationship between house prices and stock supply. The second step estimates a Vector Error Correction (VEC) to explain house price dynamics conditioned on supply reactions. The latter is defined as a long-term inverse demand model where housing prices are controlled by fundamentals in each market. Models allow forecast testing using Choleski impulse responses methodology. Findings Several results are found. In the supply model, both countries show rapid convergence to equilibrium with a larger elasticity of supply in Spain than in the UK but with a short run effect of new supply on prices in the UK. Regarding the Asset Inflation Channel model, the paper finds evidence of the existence of a housing accelerator effect in Spain, but not in the UK where changes in liquidity fully impact house prices in one direction. Research limitations/implications Implications of findings are mainly to forecast the effects of Monetary Policy measures in different economies. Practical implications The model supports the evaluation of different impacts of monetary policy in territories. It shows that the same policy will have different impacts in different housing markets and therefore highlights the importance of examining each market separately to identify the appropriate policy interventions. Originality/value This is the first paper that estimates the impact of the Asset Inflation Channel on house prices that endogenises housing market conditions and compares effects and interrelationships in two different economies.

An investigation of the synchronization in global house prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoesli
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Price Indices ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper to provide a discussion of the empirical evidence and contributing factors of the synchronization of house prices globally. Design/methodology/approach The author reviewed the main studies on house price synchronization and conducted an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. A discussion of the contributing factors of synchronization, with a focus on the demand and supply dimensions is provided, and synchronization across both countries and cities is examined. Findings Housing markets globally have become more synchronized; this is particularly clear for cities. The sustained demand for places that are attractive for financial motives and for lifestyle and sometimes climate along with the fact that such places tend to be supply-constrained is likely to lead to more synchronization across markets. Practical implications The conclusions are important for investors seeking to diversify their housing holdings internationally. The discussion should also benefit policy-makers. Originality/value To date, very scarce evidence exists on the synchronization of house prices globally. By surveying the results contained in previous studies and providing a thorough discussion of the possible drivers of house price synchronization, this study contributes to a better understanding of this important topic.

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