Are stock prices stationary? Some new evidence from a panel data approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-405
Author(s):  
Xin Shen ◽  
Mark J. Holmes
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regression ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear

Purpose – This paper investigates whether mean reversion holds for a panel of 16 OECD stock price indices for the period 1970 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach – We employ seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)-based linear and non-linear unit root tests which are not only able to exploit the power of panel data analysis but also account for cross sectional dependencies as well as identify which panel members are stationary. Findings – In contrast to a literature that offers mixed findings on stationarity, it was found that most of our sample is characterized as mean- or trend-reverting with approximated half-lives in the region of three to five years. Originality/value – In contrast to other panel unit root tests of stock prices, the authors identify which individual panel members are stationary and non-stationary using a SURADF test. A further novelty of our approach is that we also develop a SUR-based panel KSS test that allows us to explore the possibility that stock prices exhibit non-linear stationarity.

The random walk in the stock prices of 18 OECD countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 598-608
Author(s):  
Hassan Shirvani ◽  
Natalya V. Delcoure
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of unit roots in the stock prices of 16 OECD countries. Design/methodology/approach Heterogeneous panel unit root tests developed by Im et al. (1997/2003) and Pesaran (2007). Findings Under the assumption of cross-sectional independence across the panel, the authors find no evidence of unit roots, thus failing to reject mean reversion in the stock prices for all the countries in the sample. However, under the assumption of cross-sectional dependence, an assumption borne out by the diagnostic test results, the authors find support for the presence of unit roots in the stock prices. Practical implications Thus, the use of more robust panel unit root tests seems to raise questions about the long-run predictability of the stock market, at least in the context of the OECD countries. Originality/value Thus, it seems that in the long run, an investment policy of buy and hold has still much to offer.

How does environmental performance map into environmental disclosure?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hani Tadros ◽  
Michel Magnan
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Environmental Disclosure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Environmental Disclosures ◽  
Sustainability Reports

Purpose Focusing on a sample of firms from environmentally sensitive industries over several years, this study aims to reexamine the association between environmental disclosure and environmental performance. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a panel data analysis to examine how the interaction between environmental performance and economic and legitimacy factors influence firms’ environmental disclosures. Findings Results suggest that environmental performance moderates the effect of economic and legitimacy incentives on firms’ propensity to provide proprietary environmental disclosure, with both sets of incentives being influential. More specifically, there appears to be a reporting bias based on the firm’s environmental performance whereas the high-performers disclose more environmental information in the three following vehicles: annual report, 10-K and sustainability reports combined. Results also show that economic and legitimacy factors influence the disclosure decisions of the low and high environmental performers differently. Practical implications Understanding the determinants of environmental disclosure for high and low environmental performers helps regulators to close the reporting gap between these firms. Social implications There is little evidence to suggest that firms with low-environmental performance attempt to use their disclosures to legitimize their environmental operations. Originality/value The study examines environmental disclosures of 78 firms over a period of 14 years in annual, 10-K and sustainability reports. The panel data analysis controls for significant cross-sectional and period effects.

THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM THE FIVE SMALL OPEN ASEAN STOCK MARKETS

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (03) ◽  
pp. 1250021 ◽  
Author(s):  
QAISER MUNIR ◽  
KOK SOOK CHING ◽  
FUMITAKA FUROUKA ◽  
KASIM MANSUR
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Linear Series ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Unit Root Process

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from historical price changes, is satisfied when stock prices are characterized by a random walk (unit root) process. A finding of unit root implies that stock returns cannot be predicted. This paper investigates the stock prices behavior of five ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, for the period from 1990:1 to 2009:1 using a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach which allows testing nonlinearity and non-stationarity simultaneously. Among the main findings, our results indicate that stock prices of Malaysia and Thailand are a non-linear series and are characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the EMH. Furthermore, we find that stock prices of Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore follow a non-linear series, however, stock price indices are stationary processes that are inconsistent with the EMH.

Corporate CAPEX and market capitalization of firms on Malawi stock exchange: an empirical study

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byson Beracah Majanga
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Historical Study ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Market capitalization of firms reflects the current value of a firm and provides a reasonable basis on mergers and acquisition bargains. Determinants of a firm’s increasing or decreasing market capitalization are multi-faceted, hence the study. The paper is about a historical study of the responsiveness of common share prices of some listed industrial companies to the firms’ investments in capital expenditure. This study aims to discuss the impact of capital expenditure on a firm’s market capitalization, with a focus on companies listed on the Malawi stock exchange (MSE). Design/methodology/approach The study reviews data collected from published annual reports for the years from 2007 to 2015. The variations in capital expenditure (CAPEX) which are termed “increase” or “decrease” were studied to establish their association with variations in stock prices before the increase or decrease, and after the increase or decrease. As stock price changes are caused by other determinants, the variables of return on capital employed (ROCE), net profit margin (NPM), asset turnover (ATO) and earnings retention ratio (ERT) were analyzed, and a respective correlation test was done against CAPEX movement over the years through panel data analysis and regression analysis to establish the correlation between the variables using XLSTAT. Findings At 95 per cent confidence level, CAPEX correlates with ROCE and NPM at 0.373 and 0.249 coefficients, respectively, and negatively with ERT at 6.45e-2. With tests favoring a positive relationship between elements of profitability and stock price, the study finds that there is a positive relationship between a firm’s CAPEXs and its future stock prices. Research limitations/implications The firm’s commitment to CAPEX has a positive impact on its stock price on the stock exchange. These findings, however, need to be interpreted with caution as the data reviewed excluded that from financial institutions, the inclusion of which may affect the outcome, and that the data are derived from a small and young stock market which may be lacking in its efficiency compared to the old and big ones the world over. Originality/value The study was undertaken based on the study of listed companies on the Malawi Stock Exchange, and the results may or may not reflect the reality on the ground in other stock exchanges.

Mean reversion in stock prices: new evidence from panel unit root tests

2007 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 233-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paresh Kumar Narayan ◽  
Seema Narayan
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThere are several studies that investigate evidence for mean reversion in stock prices. However, there is no consensus as to whether stock prices are mean reverting or random walk (unit root) processes. The goal of this paper is to re‐examine mean reversion in stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use five different panel unit root tests, namely the Im, Pesaran and Shin t‐bar test statistic, the Levin and Lin test, the Im, Lee, and Tieslau Lagrangian multiplier test statistic, the seemingly unrelated regression test, and the multivariate augmented Dickey Fuller test advocated by Taylor and Sarno.FindingsThe main finding is that there is no mean reversion of stock prices, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.Research limitations/implicationsOne issue not considered by this study is the role of structural breaks. It may be the case that the efficient market hypothesis is contingent on structural breaks in stock prices. Future studies should model structural breaks.Practical implicationsThe findings have implications for econometric modelling, in particular forecasting.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the scarce literature on the mean reverting property of stock prices based on panel data; thus, it should be useful for researchers.

scholarly journals What do unit root tests tell us about unemployment hysteresis in transition economies?

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (84) ◽  
pp. 221-238
Author(s):  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Zamira Oskonbaeva ◽  
Hoşeng Bülbül
Keyword(s):  
Transition Economies ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Countries In Transition

Purpose This study aims to examine the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment using monthly data from 13 countries in transition. Design/methodology/approach Stationarity in the unemployment rate of selected transition economies was analyzed using four different group unit root tests, namely, linear, structural breaks, non-linear and structural breaks and non-linear. Findings The empirical results show that the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is valid for the majority of transition economies, including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, the Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. However, the results strongly reject the null hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis for the Kazakhstan and the Slovak Republics. Originality/value This study revealed that, for countries in transition, advanced unit root tests exhibit greater validity when compared to standard tests

Financial and other frauds in the United States: a panel analysis approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuming Bai ◽  
Kai S. Koong
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sentinel Network ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on the findings and implications associated with the millions of financial and other fraud complaints that are reported to the Federal Trade Commission and published in the Consumer Sentinel Network Data Book each year since 2002. Based on the three dimensions, namely, the number of complaints, growth rates and geographic locations of those crimes, this study found similar as well as unique trends that are new and are critical for addressing the rise of cybercrimes in the USA. The trends and patterns identified may also have implications for addressing cybercrimes in other parts of the world. Design/methodology/approach This research is a cross-sectional time-series study that covers frauds and cybercrimes in the USA from 2002 to 2015. The observed cases included the number of total complaints, complaints categories and payment amount or loss incurred both at the national and state levels. First, aggregate fraud totals, categories, payments and payment methods were analyzed and ranked. Second, state data for fraud categories, payments and filing rate per capita were organized into panel data for analysis, comparison and ranking. This cross-sectional and longitudinal approach of the different dimensions of financial and other frauds generate new rankings and more robust results. Findings The key findings are related to the long-term occurrences and trends of financial and online frauds in the USA. While some general trends are consistent with prior studies, the cross-sectional and longitudinal panel analysis produced some unique results. States that reported the most complaints do not necessarily rank high when examined with their growth per capital or their rates of growth. Their rankings could change dramatically due to other factors. In addition, eight of the top ten crime categories are the same both at the national and state levels, indicating that law enforcement could target the same crime categories. Originality/value The panel data analysis is new (first attempt at using this technique on the data set) and robust because it allows cross-sectional and longitudinally analysis of the various financial and online fraud crimes, in aggregate and by state, for a more comprehensive and comparative examination of the fraud behavioral trends. This research can be viewed as an improvement over earlier studies because the panel analysis identifies what fraud trends, scam types and payment amount exist on the national and state levels. The rate of fraud growth in the respective states provides a better understanding about future development of this problem.

scholarly journals A NOTE ON THE POOLING OF INDIVIDUAL PANIC UNIT ROOT TESTS

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1851-1868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joakim Westerlund ◽  
Rolf Larsson
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Nonstationary Panel Data ◽  
Asymptotic Validity ◽  
New Framework

One of the most cited studies in recent years within the field of nonstationary panel data analysis is that of Bai and Ng (2004), in which the authors propose PANIC, a new framework for analyzing the nonstationarity of panels with idiosyncratic and common components. The problem is that the asymptotic validity of PANIC as a platform for constructing pooled panel unit root tests based on averaging is not fully proven. This paper provides the required results, whose usefulness is verified through simulations.

Is NPA and Stock Return Related: An Empirical Study of Back Testing Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhvi . ◽  
Amit Gautam ◽  
Amit Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Correlation Studies ◽  
Back Testing ◽  
Trading Model ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between NPA announcements by banks and the impulsive movement in stock price brought out by these announcements. Primary focus of this study is to determine whether we can create a swing trading model based on back testing the data for the banking stocks listed on the Indian bourses.To achieve this objective we created a databasespanning ten years (2006 to 2016) and collected the daily share prices of eight banks listed on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The relationship between share price and changes in NPA is studied on the basis of correlation studies and panel-data analysis. Although correlation studies does not establish any significant relationship, but the result of panel-data analysis clearly shows a negative relationship between the two. The result is further utilized to develop swing trading model and get benefit out of it. The novelty of the present study is that it clearly guides the swing traders as to how to earn benefit because of fluctuations in share price due to announce of NPA result.

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