Bayesian model for Fairness in sampling from clustered data and FP-FN error rates

Author(s):  
Ishani Chakraborty
Author(s):  
Karl W. Heiner ◽  
Marc Kennedy ◽  
Anthony O'Hagan

This article discusses the use of Bayesian methods in analysing data that evolve over time in sequential multilocation auditing. Using the New York food stamps program as a case study, it proposes a model that incorporates a nonparametric component for the error magnitudes (taints), a hierarchical model for overall error rates across counties and parameters controlling the variation of rates from one year to the next, including an overall trend in error rates. The article first provides an overview of the New York food stamps program, along with the auditing concepts and terminology, before introducing the Bayesian model. This model is used to examine a sample of individual awards of food stamps to see if the value awarded is correct according to the rules of the scheme. The model makes it possible to smooth estimation of error rates and error classes in small counties across counties and through time.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1411-1431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Bislick ◽  
William D. Hula

Purpose This retrospective analysis examined group differences in error rate across 4 contextual variables (clusters vs. singletons, syllable position, number of syllables, and articulatory phonetic features) in adults with apraxia of speech (AOS) and adults with aphasia only. Group differences in the distribution of error type across contextual variables were also examined. Method Ten individuals with acquired AOS and aphasia and 11 individuals with aphasia participated in this study. In the context of a 2-group experimental design, the influence of 4 contextual variables on error rate and error type distribution was examined via repetition of 29 multisyllabic words. Error rates were analyzed using Bayesian methods, whereas distribution of error type was examined via descriptive statistics. Results There were 4 findings of robust differences between the 2 groups. These differences were found for syllable position, number of syllables, manner of articulation, and voicing. Group differences were less robust for clusters versus singletons and place of articulation. Results of error type distribution show a high proportion of distortion and substitution errors in speakers with AOS and a high proportion of substitution and omission errors in speakers with aphasia. Conclusion Findings add to the continued effort to improve the understanding and assessment of AOS and aphasia. Several contextual variables more consistently influenced breakdown in participants with AOS compared to participants with aphasia and should be considered during the diagnostic process. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.9701690


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke J. Hearne ◽  
Damian P. Birney ◽  
Luca Cocchi ◽  
Jason B. Mattingley

Abstract. The Latin Square Task (LST) is a relational reasoning paradigm developed by Birney, Halford, and Andrews (2006) . Previous work has shown that the LST elicits typical reasoning complexity effects, such that increases in complexity are associated with decrements in task accuracy and increases in response times. Here we modified the LST for use in functional brain imaging experiments, in which presentation durations must be strictly controlled, and assessed its validity and reliability. Modifications included presenting the components within each trial serially, such that the reasoning and response periods were separated. In addition, the inspection time for each LST problem was constrained to five seconds. We replicated previous findings of higher error rates and slower response times with increasing relational complexity and observed relatively large effect sizes (η2p > 0.70, r > .50). Moreover, measures of internal consistency and test-retest reliability confirmed the stability of the LST within and across separate testing sessions. Interestingly, we found that limiting the inspection time for individual problems in the LST had little effect on accuracy relative to the unconstrained times used in previous work, a finding that is important for future brain imaging experiments aimed at investigating the neural correlates of relational reasoning.


Author(s):  
Manuel Perea ◽  
Victoria Panadero

The vast majority of neural and computational models of visual-word recognition assume that lexical access is achieved via the activation of abstract letter identities. Thus, a word’s overall shape should play no role in this process. In the present lexical decision experiment, we compared word-like pseudowords like viotín (same shape as its base word: violín) vs. viocín (different shape) in mature (college-aged skilled readers), immature (normally reading children), and immature/impaired (young readers with developmental dyslexia) word-recognition systems. Results revealed similar response times (and error rates) to consistent-shape and inconsistent-shape pseudowords for both adult skilled readers and normally reading children – this is consistent with current models of visual-word recognition. In contrast, young readers with developmental dyslexia made significantly more errors to viotín-like pseudowords than to viocín-like pseudowords. Thus, unlike normally reading children, young readers with developmental dyslexia are sensitive to a word’s visual cues, presumably because of poor letter representations.


2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Chen ◽  
Raj M. Ratwani ◽  
J. Gregory Trafton
Keyword(s):  

1981 ◽  
Vol 20 (03) ◽  
pp. 174-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Barnett ◽  
J. Cynthia ◽  
F. Jane ◽  
Nancy Gutensohn ◽  
B. Davies

A Bayesian model that provides probabilistic information about the spread of malignancy in a Hodgkin’s disease patient has been developed at the Tufts New England Medical Center. In assessing the model’s reliability, it seemed important to use it to make predictions about patients other than those relevant to its construction. The accuracy of these predictions could then be tested statistically. This paper describes such a test, based on 243 Hodgkin’s disease patients of known pathologic stage. The results obtained were supportive of the model, and the test procedure might interest those wishing to determine whether the imperfections that attend any attempt to make probabilistic forecasts have gravely damaged their accuracy.


1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (04/05) ◽  
pp. 309-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. Lehto ◽  
G. S. Sorock

Abstract:Bayesian inferencing as a machine learning technique was evaluated for identifying pre-crash activity and crash type from accident narratives describing 3,686 motor vehicle crashes. It was hypothesized that a Bayesian model could learn from a computer search for 63 keywords related to accident categories. Learning was described in terms of the ability to accurately classify previously unclassifiable narratives not containing the original keywords. When narratives contained keywords, the results obtained using both the Bayesian model and keyword search corresponded closely to expert ratings (P(detection)≥0.9, and P(false positive)≤0.05). For narratives not containing keywords, when the threshold used by the Bayesian model was varied between p>0.5 and p>0.9, the overall probability of detecting a category assigned by the expert varied between 67% and 12%. False positives correspondingly varied between 32% and 3%. These latter results demonstrated that the Bayesian system learned from the results of the keyword searches.


1975 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 32-34
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Schach

Data reporting the experience with an optical mark page reader is presented (IBM 1231Ν1). Information from 52,000 persons was gathered in seven countries, decentrally coded and centrally processed. Reader performance rates (i.e. sheets read per hour, sheet rejection rates, reading error rates) and costs (coding, verification, reading, etc.) are given.


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