Meet in the Middle: Terrorism and Centrist Party Vote Shares in Legislative Elections

Global Policy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-74
Author(s):  
Lance Y. Hunter ◽  
Joseph W. Robbins ◽  
Martha H. Ginn ◽  
Aaron Hutton
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Party Vote Shares

TERRORISM AND RIGHT-PARTY VOTE SHARES IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

World Affairs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 184 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-471
Author(s):  
Lance Y. Hunter ◽  
Joseph W. Robbins ◽  
Martha H. Ginn
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Multiple Regions ◽  
Psychological Reasoning ◽  
Party Vote Shares

This study examines the electoral consequences for ideologically right-leaning political parties in the wake of terrorist attacks by employing an original dataset that captures political party vote shares and multiple terrorist indicators. Our analysis extends the partisan voting hypothesis to 56 democracies from multiple regions and levels of development between 1975–2014. Specifically, we find that the origins of terrorist perpetrators, the severity of terrorist attacks, and the frequency of terrorist incidents decrease right-party vote shares in legislative contests when incorporating standard controls. All told, these findings reinforce political psychological reasoning that contends terrorist attacks impact citizens’ emotions and voting calculations.

The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Multiparty Systems

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 400-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drew A. Linzer
Keyword(s):  
Compositional Data ◽  
Finite Mixture Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Party Vote Shares ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between a party's popular vote share and legislative seat share—its seats—votes swing ratio—is a key characteristic of democratic representation. This article introduces a general approach to estimating party-specific swing ratios in multiparty legislative elections, given results from only a single election. I estimate the joint density of party vote shares across districts using a finite mixture model for compositional data and then computationally evaluate this distribution to produce parties' expected change in legislative seats for plausible changes in their vote share. The method easily extends to systems with any number of parties, employing both majoritarian and proportional electoral rules. Applications to legislative elections in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Botswana demonstrate how parties' swing ratios vary both within countries and over time, indicating that parties under majoritarian electoral rules are subject to unique and possibly divergent geographic—political constraints.

The Extended Nation as a Political Project – Hungarian Diaspora Living in Western Canada

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-103
Author(s):  
Ágnes Vass
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Belonging ◽  
State Budget ◽  
External Voting ◽  
Diaspora Policy

AbstractPolicy towards Hungarians living in neighbouring countries has been a central issue for Hungarian governments, yet Hungarian diaspora living mainly in Western Europe and North America have received very little attention. This has changed after the 2010 landslide victory of Fidesz. The new government introduced a structured policy focused on engaging Hungarian diaspora, largely due to the nationalist rhetoric of the governing party. The article argues that this change reflects a turn of Hungarian nationalism into what Ragazzi and Balalowska (2011) have called post-territorial nationalism, where national belonging becomes disconnected from territory. It is because of this new conception of Hungarian nationalism that we witness the Hungarian government approach Hungarian communities living in other countries in new ways while using new policy tools: the offer of extraterritorial citizenship; political campaigns to motivate the diaspora to take part in Hungarian domestic politics by voting in legislative elections; or the never-before-seen high state budget allocated to support these communities. Our analysis is based on qualitative data gathered in 2016 from focus group discussions conducted in the Hungarian community of Western Canada to understand the effects of this diaspora politics from a bottom-up perspective. Using the theoretical framework of extraterritorial citizenship, external voting rights and diaspora engagement programmes, the paper gives a brief overview of the development of the Hungarian diaspora policy. We focus on how post-territorial nationalism of the Hungarian government after 2010 effects the ties of Hungarian communities in Canada with Hungary, how the members of these communities conceptualise the meaning of their “new” Hungarian citizenship, voting rights and other diaspora programmes. We argue that external citizenship and voting rights play a crucial role in the Orbán government’s attempt to govern Hungarian diaspora communities through diaspora policy.

The Internal Stakes of the 2005 Elections: The Struggle for Influence in Egypt's National Democratic Party

2007 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-111
Author(s):  
Virginie Collombier
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The Future ◽  
External Actors ◽  
First Time

Beyond the relative opening of the political system that characterized 2005 in Egypt — with the President being elected directly for the first time and the increased competition allowed during legislative elections — the 2005 elections also constituted an opportunity to consider and evaluate the internal struggles for influence under way within the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). In a context largely influenced by the perspective of President Husni Mubarak's succession and by calls for reform coming from both internal and external actors, changes currently occurring at the party level may have a decisive impact on the future of the Egyptian regime.

A Unified Spatial Model of Congress

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Buchler
Keyword(s):  
Collective Action ◽  
Spatial Model ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Collective Action Problem ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Legislative Session ◽  
Disciplinary System ◽  
Sincere Voting

This chapter presents a unified model of legislative elections, parties, and roll call voting, built around a party leadership election. First, a legislative caucus selects a party leader who campaigns based on a platform of a disciplinary system. Once elected, that leader runs the legislative session, in which roll call votes occur. Then elections occur, and incumbents face re-election with the positions they incrementally adopted. When the caucus is ideologically homogeneous, electorally diverse, and policy motivated, members will elect a leader who solves the collective action problem of sincere voting with “preference-preserving influence.” That leader will threaten to punish legislators who bow to electoral pressure to vote as centrists. Consequently, legislators vote sincerely as extremists and get slightly lower vote shares, but they offset that lost utility with policy gains that they couldn’t have gotten without party influence. Party leaders will rarely pressure legislators to vote insincerely.

scholarly journals Simultaneous Elections and the Rise of Female Representation in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-72
Author(s):  
Luky Sandra Amalia ◽  
Aisah Putri Budiatri ◽  
Mouliza KD. Sweinstani ◽  
Atika Nur Kusumaningtyas ◽  
Esty Ekawati
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Institutional Innovation ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election

In the 2019 election, the proportion of women elected to Indonesia’s People’s Representative Assembly ( Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR) increased significantly to almost 21 per cent. In this article, we ask whether an institutional innovation – the introduction of simultaneous presidential and legislative elections – contributed to this change. We examine the election results, demonstrating that, overall, women candidates did particularly well in provinces where the presidential candidate nominated by their party won a majority of the vote. Having established quantitatively a connection between results of the presidential elections and outcomes for women legislative candidates, we turn to our qualitative findings to seek a mechanism explaining this outcome. We argue that the simultaneous elections helped women candidates by easing their access to voters who supported one of the presidential candidates, but who were undecided on the legislative election. Rather than imposing additional burdens on female candidates, simultaneous elections assisted them.

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