The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Multiparty Systems

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 400-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drew A. Linzer
Keyword(s):  
Compositional Data ◽  
Finite Mixture Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Party Vote Shares ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between a party's popular vote share and legislative seat share—its seats—votes swing ratio—is a key characteristic of democratic representation. This article introduces a general approach to estimating party-specific swing ratios in multiparty legislative elections, given results from only a single election. I estimate the joint density of party vote shares across districts using a finite mixture model for compositional data and then computationally evaluate this distribution to produce parties' expected change in legislative seats for plausible changes in their vote share. The method easily extends to systems with any number of parties, employing both majoritarian and proportional electoral rules. Applications to legislative elections in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Botswana demonstrate how parties' swing ratios vary both within countries and over time, indicating that parties under majoritarian electoral rules are subject to unique and possibly divergent geographic—political constraints.

Electoral Rules and Democracy in Latin America

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia McClintock
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Political Exclusion ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Freedom House

During Latin America’s third democratic wave, a majority of countries adopted a runoff rule for the election of the president. This book is the first rigorous assessment of the implications of runoff versus plurality for democracy in the region. Despite previous scholarly skepticism about runoff, it has been positive for Latin America, and could be for the United States also. Primarily through qualitative analysis for each Latin American country, I explore why runoff is superior to plurality. Runoff opens the political arena to new parties but at the same time ensures that the president does not suffer a legitimacy deficit and is not at an ideological extreme. By contrast, in a region in which undemocratic political parties are common, the continuation of these parties is abetted by plurality; political exclusion provoked disillusionment and facilitated the emergence of presidents at ideological extremes. In regression analysis, runoff was statistically significant to superior levels of democracy. Between 1990 and 2016, Freedom House and Varieties of Democracy scores plummeted in countries with plurality but improved in countries with runoff. Plurality advocates’ primary concern is the larger number of political parties under runoff. Although a larger number of parties was not significant to inferior levels of democracy, a plethora of parties is problematic, leading to a paucity of legislative majorities and inchoate parties. To ameliorate the problem, I recommend not reductions in the 50% threshold but the scheduling of the legislative election after the first round or thresholds for entry into the legislature.

Voters reward hard-working MPs: empirical evidence from the French legislative elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel François ◽  
Julien Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Political System ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Legislative Election

AbstractThis paper studies the relationship between incumbent MPs’ activities and their electoral fortune. We address this question in the context of the French political system characterized by an executive domination, a candidate-centered electoral system, and an electoral schedule maximizing the impact of the presidential elections. Given the contradictory influence of these three institutional features on the relationship between MPs’ activities and electoral results, the overall link can only be assessed empirically. We test the effects of several measurements of MPs’ activities on both their vote share and reelection probability in the 2007 legislative election. We show that MPs’ activities are differently correlated to both the incumbents’ vote shares in the first round and their reelection. Despite the weakness of the French National Assembly, several parliamentary activities, especially bill initiation, have a significant effect on MPs’ electoral prospects.

Conclusion and the Future of Presidential-Election Rules

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia McClintock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Political Exclusion ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Legislative Election

Runoff has been advantageous in Latin America and could be in the United States also. Amid the legitimacy deficits of the 2000 and 2016 elections in the United States, popular demand for change in electoral rules is strong. Although ranked-choice voting is the most common innovation in the United States, it is complex and relatively untested. By contrast, runoff has been tested in Latin America and shown to be successful. Runoff opened the electoral arena to new parties but, at the same time, assured that the president had majority support and was not at an ideological extreme. By contrast, plurality often facilitated political exclusion by dominant parties and exacerbated cynicism and polarization. Although the number of parties was larger under runoff, the concomitant problems can be ameliorated by such measures as the scheduling of the legislative election after the first round and raising the threshold for entry to the legislature.

Social Diversity Affects the Number of Parties Even Under First-Past-the-Post Rules

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (7) ◽  
pp. 938-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caitlin Milazzo ◽  
Robert G. Moser ◽  
Ethan Scheiner
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
National Level ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Social Diversity ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
The Relationship

Nearly all systematic empirical work on the relationship between social diversity and the number of parties asserts the “interactive hypothesis”—Social heterogeneity leads to party fragmentation under permissive electoral rules, but not under single-member district, first-past-the-post (FPTP) rules. In this article, we argue that previous work has been hindered by a reliance on national-level measures of variables and a linear model of the relationship between diversity and party fragmentation. This article provides the first analysis to test the interactive hypothesis appropriately by using district-level measures of both ethnic diversity and the effective number of parties in legislative FPTP elections and considering a curvilinear relationship between the variables. We find that there is a strong relationship between social diversity and the number of parties even under FPTP electoral rules, thus suggesting that restrictive rules are not as powerful a constraint on electoral behavior and outcomes as is usually supposed.

Dual-Ballot Elections and Political Parties

1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSEPH A. SCHLESINGER ◽  
MILDRED S. SCHLESINGER
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Number Of Parties

Although the effect of electoral rules on the number of parties in democracies has been well explored, little attention had been paid to their effect on the parties themselves. The authors examine this problem within the context of French two-ballot rules, which illuminate partisan distinctions rather than blur them as single-ballot rules do. Earlier studies demonstrated that the dual-ballot rules used in French legislative elections allowed four ways of winning, in response to which four stable parties emerged. The French presidential election further illuminated these distinctions. Because there is only one winner, the contest becomes personalized, heightening partisan distinctions in electoral strategies, appeals, and organization. Examining this effect in the 1995 presidential election, the authors conclude that the French dual ballot provides a tool for understanding not only French parties but also parties in which single-ballot rules force all to use similar electoral strategies and appeals.

The Spatial Structure of Party Competition: Party Dispersion within a Finite Policy Space

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 805-824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josephine T. Andrews ◽  
Jeannette Money
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Spatial Theory ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Issue Space

Using the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) data for twenty established parliamentary democracies, the authors have studied the relationship between number of parties in a party system and party dispersion. They found that as the number of parties in the system increases, the dispersion of parties also increases, but only up to a point. The boundaries of a finite issue space appear to expand up to at most five parties. In addition, once the number of parties in the party system was controlled for, they found that electoral rules have no direct effect on party dispersion. Thus, their findings validate the theoretical predictions of spatial theory while at the same time highlighting surprising ways in which the policy space is constrained.

Abusive Men's Use of Children to Control Their Partners and Ex-Partners

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisa L. Beeble ◽  
Deborah Bybee ◽  
Cris M. Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Intimate Partner Violence ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Emotional Abuse ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Anecdotal Evidence ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
The Relationship

While research has found that millions of children in the United States are exposed to their mothers being battered, and that many are themselves abused as well, little is known about the ways in which children are used by abusers to manipulate or harm their mothers. Anecdotal evidence suggests that perpetrators use children in a variety of ways to control and harm women; however, no studies to date have empirically examined the extent of this occurring. Therefore, the current study examined the extent to which survivors of abuse experienced this, as well as the conditions under which it occurred. Interviews were conducted with 156 women who had experienced recent intimate partner violence. Each of these women had at least one child between the ages of 5 and 12. Most women (88%) reported that their assailants had used their children against them in varying ways. Multiple variables were found to be related to this occurring, including the relationship between the assailant and the children, the extent of physical and emotional abuse used by the abuser against the woman, and the assailant's court-ordered visitation status. Findings point toward the complex situational conditions by which assailants use the children of their partners or ex-partners to continue the abuse, and the need for a great deal more research in this area.

The United States and the Iranian Nuclear Programme

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Hurst
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nixon Administration ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Issue ◽  
The Relationship

The United States, Iran and the Bomb provides the first comprehensive analysis of the US-Iranian nuclear relationship from its origins through to the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. Starting with the Nixon administration in the 1970s, it analyses the policies of successive US administrations toward the Iranian nuclear programme. Emphasizing the centrality of domestic politics to decision-making on both sides, it offers both an explanation of the evolution of the relationship and a critique of successive US administrations' efforts to halt the Iranian nuclear programme, with neither coercive measures nor inducements effectively applied. The book further argues that factional politics inside Iran played a crucial role in Iranian nuclear decision-making and that American policy tended to reinforce the position of Iranian hardliners and undermine that of those who were prepared to compromise on the nuclear issue. In the final chapter it demonstrates how President Obama's alterations to American strategy, accompanied by shifts in Iranian domestic politics, finally brought about the signing of the JCPOA in 2015.

Confluencia geopolítica entre Cárdenas y Roosevelt:

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-254
Author(s):  
Andreu Espasa
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
World War ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The New Deal

De forma un tanto paradójica, a finales de los años treinta, las relaciones entre México y Estados Unidos sufrieron uno de los momentos de máxima tensión, para pasar, a continuación, a experimentar una notable mejoría, alcanzando el cénit en la alianza política y militar sellada durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. El episodio catalizador de la tensión y posterior reconciliación fue, sin duda, el conflicto diplomático planteado tras la nacionalización petrolera de 1938. De entre los factores que propiciaron la solución pacífica y negociada al conflicto petrolero, el presente artículo se centra en analizar dos fenómenos del momento. En primer lugar, siguiendo un orden de relevancia, se examina el papel que tuvo la Guerra Civil Española. Aunque las posturas de ambos gobiernos ante el conflicto español fueron sustancialmente distintas, las interpretaciones y las lecciones sobre sus posibles consecuencias permitieron un mayor entendimiento entre los dos países vecinos. En segundo lugar, también se analizarán las afinidades ideológicas entre el New Deal y el cardenismo en el contexto de la crisis mundial económica y política de los años treinta, con el fin de entender su papel lubricante en las relaciones bilaterales de la época. Somewhat paradoxically, at the end of the 1930s, the relationship between Mexico and the United States experienced one of its tensest moments, after which it dramatically improved, reaching its zenith in the political and military alliance cemented during World War II. The catalyst for this tension and subsequent reconciliation was, without doubt, the diplomatic conflict that arose after the oil nationalization of 1938. Of the various factors that led to a peaceful negotiated solution to the oil conflict, this article focuses on analyzing two phenomena. Firstly—in order of importance—this article examines the role that the Spanish Civil War played. Although the positions of both governments in relation to the Spanish war were significantly different, the interpretations and lessons concerning potential consequences enabled a greater understanding between the two neighboring countries. Secondly, this article also analyzes the ideological affinities between the New Deal and Cardenismo in the context of the global economic and political crisis of the thirties, seeking to understand their role in facilitating bilateral relations during that period.

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