How Much of Electoral Politics Is in the District? Measuring District Effects on Party Support

The electoral district is the fundamental unit of representation in single- and multi-member electoral systems, yet most research shows little interest in district effects on election outcomes, focusing instead on national and individual factors. This is problematic as parties and candidates often put a great deal of effort into district-based campaigns. How, then, can we best capture district effects on party support? We propose a new method using official election returns and geospatial techniques. The result is a measure of how much of a party's vote share is explained by district effects. Using data from the 2006–2019 Canadian federal elections, we find that, on average, 6 to 10 per cent of the variation in a party's vote in Canada is explained by district effects. While district effects on party support are trivial for some districts, in others they account for more than 80 per cent of the variance in party vote shares. The effect of districts on party support is composed, in part, of electoral context, province, socio-economic factors and district campaign intensity. Importantly, the size and sources of district effects on party support vary across parties, suggesting heterogeneity. The benefits of our approach are threefold: (1) it is cost-effective, (2) it can be easily replicated in any setting—past or present—where districts are relevant electoral units and where districting is nonpartisan, and (3) it is responsive to differences in district composition and parties’ campaign effort.

TERRORISM AND RIGHT-PARTY VOTE SHARES IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

This study examines the electoral consequences for ideologically right-leaning political parties in the wake of terrorist attacks by employing an original dataset that captures political party vote shares and multiple terrorist indicators. Our analysis extends the partisan voting hypothesis to 56 democracies from multiple regions and levels of development between 1975–2014. Specifically, we find that the origins of terrorist perpetrators, the severity of terrorist attacks, and the frequency of terrorist incidents decrease right-party vote shares in legislative contests when incorporating standard controls. All told, these findings reinforce political psychological reasoning that contends terrorist attacks impact citizens’ emotions and voting calculations.

The Effect of Parties on Voters’ Satisfaction with Democracy

Electoral ‘winners’ (i.e., voters casting a ballot for a party included in the post-electoral government) are acknowledged to be more satisfied with democracy than supporters of opposition parties. However, little is known about the influence of parties and their specifics on the boost in satisfaction with democracy experienced by their voters. To address this question, the research utilizes 17 surveys from 12 countries included in the European Social Survey rounds 1–8, for which a government replacement took place during the survey period. This allows this research to employ discontinuity design and examine the effect of two attributes related to parties—differences in party vote shares, and voters’ feeling of closeness to a party. The findings suggest that these factors have a negligible influence on voters’ satisfaction with democracy and only scant evidence is found that closeness to a party tends to increase their satisfaction. When voters’ attitudes from before and after a government replacement are compared, changes in government do not seem to strike voters as a surprise and thus they do not cause any sudden and lasting changes in the general attitudes of electorates. Nevertheless, this indicates a novel contribution to the literature: the effect of losing needs some time to fully develop until it results in a decrease in satisfaction level. Based on these findings, the research concludes that when it comes to parties’ characteristics, it is primarily the government/opposition status which determines voters’ degree of satisfaction with democracy.

Economic performance and electoral volatility: Testing the economic voting hypothesis on Indian states, 1957–2013

The consequences of variations in economic growth for vote volatility are analyzed on a panel of 14 Indian states between 1957 and 2013. Two measures of volatility are used: changes in party vote shares at the assembly level and changes in the state average of vote volatilities constructed at the constituency level. While the results find that both vary inversely with income growth rates, volatility at the constituency level is found to be more sensitive to growth rates. Examination of the periodicity of income growth’s impact finds that growth in the final year of governance has a stronger effect on volatility than does the average growth rate arising over the incumbent’s tenure. We confirm for Indian states that vote volatility responds more to negative changes than positive changes in the growth rate and, by decomposing volatility and find, contrary to most studies, that growth rates affect internal vote shifting more than between exiting parties and newcomers. The responsiveness of volatility to economic and political characteristics of the state reinforces the hypothesis that theories of economic voting have an important role to play in understanding electoral volatility and may provide a more insightful way of approaching the political business cycle.

Dalit Party Performance and Bloc Voting

This chapter outlines the electoral performance of Dalit ethnic parties. In non-movement states, Dalit ethnic party vote shares have been higher, and Dalits have won more seats in state assembly and parliamentary elections than Dalit ethnic parties in movement states. The chapter process traces Dalit electoral mobilization by ethnic and multiethnic parties across the two sets of states. It proceeds to show that Dalits’ ethnic party performance is explained by Dalits’ attitudes toward bloc voting and, that importantly, voters’ attitudes vary significantly across movement and non-movement states. Dalits in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are far less inclined to vote with members of their caste than Dalits in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The Persistent Effect of U.S. Civil Rights Protests on Political Attitudes

Protests can engender significant institutional change. Can protests also continue to shape a nation’s contemporary politics outside of more formalized channels? I argue that social movements can not only beget institutional change, but also long-run, attitudinal change. Using the case of the U.S. civil rights movement, I develop a theory in which protests can shift attitudes and these attitudes can persist. Data from over 150,000 survey respondents provide evidence consistent with the theory. Whites from counties that experienced historical civil rights protests are more likely to identify as Democrats and support affirmative action, and less likely to harbor racial resentment against blacks. These individual-level results are politically meaningful—counties that experienced civil rights protests are associated with greater Democratic Party vote shares even today. This study highlights how social movements can have persistent impacts on a nation’s politics.

Cross-Level Partisanship in Concurrent Federal-Provincial Elections:

The purpose of this project is to explore the following research question: do same day (i.e. concurrent) provincial-federal elections exhibit a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than non-concurrent elections? This paper proposes that concurrent elections lead to a convergence in voters evaluations of federal-provincial co-partisans, and that this results in a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than in non-concurrent elections. Using 2011 Canada Election Studies (CES) data on federal party vote choice and provincial party preference, this paper will project the results of concurrent federal-provincial elections for three Canadian provinces. The results of these projected concurrent elections will be compared to actual party vote shares received in the first provincial election held following the 2011 Canadian federal election. The comparison of these data will be used to test the hypothesis that concurrent elections have a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than non-concurrent elections. This paper consists of five sections. First, I introduce the aims of this research and discuss its theoretical and substantive significance by referencing relevant literature. Second, a comprehensive theoretical framework is developed to explain why cross-level partisanship is expected to be higher in a concurrent election. Third, I outline the research design and methodology used to test this causal hypothesis. Fourth, I report and interpret my findings which show that overall cross-level partisanship was slightly higher in projected concurrent elections. I conclude by discussing the implications and limits of this study.

How local personal vote-earning attributes affect the aggregate party vote share: Evidence from the Belgian flexible-list PR system (2003–2014)

This article investigates the effect of candidates exhibiting local personal vote-earning attributes (PVEA) on the aggregate party vote share at the district level. Previous research has often assumed that packing ballot lists with localized candidates increases the aggregate party vote and seat shares. We present a strict empirical test of this argument by analysing the relative electoral swing of ballot lists at the district level, a measure of change in party vote shares which controls for the national party trend and previous party results in the district. The analysis is based on data of 7527 candidacies during six Belgian regional and federal election cycles between 2003 and 2014, which is aggregated to an original data set of 223 ballot lists. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models do not show a significant effect of candidates exhibiting local PVEA on relative electoral swing of ballot lists. However, the results suggest that ballot lists do benefit electorally if candidates with local PVEA are geographically distributed over different municipalities in the district.