Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

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Dynamics of a temperate deciduous forest under landscape-scale management: Implications for adaptability to climate change

Forest Ecology and Management ◽

10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.033 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 387 ◽

pp. 73-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Matthew G. Olson ◽

Benjamin O. Knapp ◽

John M. Kabrick

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Deciduous Forest ◽

Landscape Scale ◽

Temperate Deciduous Forest ◽

Management Implications ◽

Temperate Deciduous ◽

Scale Management

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Scaling from stand to landscape scale of climate change mitigation by afforestation and forest management: a modeling approach

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-007-9297-5 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 86 (3-4) ◽

pp. 397-424 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Juan F. García-Quijano ◽

Gaby Deckmyn ◽

Reinhart Ceulemans ◽

Jos van Orshoven ◽

Bart Muys

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Management ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Landscape Scale ◽

Modeling Approach ◽

Change Mitigation

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Invasion of Phytophthora infestans at the Landscape Level: How Do Spatial Scale and Weather Modulate the Consequences of Spatial Heterogeneity in Host Resistance?

Phytopathology ◽

10.1094/phyto-06-09-0148 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 100 (11) ◽

pp. 1146-1161 ◽

Cited By ~ 53

Author(s):

Peter Skelsey ◽

Walter A. H. Rossing ◽

Geert J. T. Kessel ◽

Wopke van der Werf

Keyword(s):

Late Blight ◽

Spatial Heterogeneity ◽

Plant Disease ◽

Atmospheric Dispersion ◽

Potato Late Blight ◽

Landscape Scale ◽

Life Cycles ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Susceptible Cultivar ◽

Landscape Level

Strategic spatial patterning of crop species and cultivars could make agricultural landscapes less vulnerable to plant disease epidemics, but experimentation to explore effective disease-suppressive landscape designs is problematic. Here, we present a realistic, multiscale, spatiotemporal, integrodifference equation model of potato late blight epidemics to determine the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and disease spread, and determine the effectiveness of mixing resistant and susceptible cultivars at different spatial scales under the influence of weather. The model framework comprised a landscape generator, a potato late blight model that includes host and pathogen life cycles and fungicide management at the field scale, and an atmospheric dispersion model that calculates spore dispersal at the landscape scale. Landscapes consisted of one or two distinct potato-growing regions (6.4-by-6.4-km) embedded within a nonhost matrix. The characteristics of fields and growing regions and the separation distance between two growing regions were investigated for their effects on disease incidence, measured as the proportion of fields with ≥1% severity, after inoculation of a single potato grid cell with a low initial level of disease. The most effective spatial strategies for suppressing disease spread in a region were those that reduced the acreage of potato or increased the proportion of a resistant potato cultivar. Clustering potato cultivation in some parts of a region, either by planting in large fields or clustering small fields, enhanced the spread within such a cluster while it delayed spread from one cluster to another; however, the net effect of clustering was an increase in disease at the landscape scale. The planting of mixtures of a resistant and susceptible cultivar was a consistently effective option for creating potato-growing regions that suppressed disease spread. It was more effective to mix susceptible and resistant cultivars within fields than plant some fields entirely with a susceptible cultivar and other fields with a resistant cultivar, at the same ratio of susceptible to resistant potato plants at the landscape level. Separation distances of at least 16 km were needed to completely prevent epidemic spread from one potato-growing region to another. Effects of spatial placement of resistant and susceptible potato cultivars depended strongly on meteorological conditions, indicating that landscape connectivity for the spread of plant disease depends on the particular coincidence between direction of spread, location of fields, distance between the fields, and survival of the spores depending on the weather. Therefore, in the simulation of (airborne) pathogen invasions, it is important to consider the large variability of atmospheric dispersion conditions.

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Climate Change, Uncertainty and Policy

10.20944/preprints202108.0284.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jeroen Hopster

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Science ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Deep Uncertainty ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Moral Uncertainty ◽

Climate Economics ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty ◽

Management Perspective ◽

Climate Uncertainty

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

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Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.170 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 634 ◽

pp. 95-108 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Ghaffar Ali

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Heterogeneity ◽

Empirical Evidence ◽

Multidisciplinary Approach

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The role of temperature and dispersal in moss-microarthropod community assembly after a catastrophic event

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2012.0241 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 367 (1605) ◽

pp. 3042-3049 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Giselle Perdomo ◽

Paul Sunnucks ◽

Ross M. Thompson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Community Assembly ◽

Size Structure ◽

Landscape Scale ◽

Model Systems ◽

Habitat Isolation ◽

Catastrophic Event ◽

Extreme Climatic Events ◽

Effects Of Temperature

There is a clear crisis in the maintenance of biodiversity. It has been generated by a multitude of factors, notably habitat loss, now compounded by the effects of climate change. Predicted changes in climate include increased severity and frequency of extreme climatic events. To manage landscapes, an understanding of the processes that allow recovery from these extreme events is required. Understanding these landscape-scale processes of community assembly and disassembly is hindered by the large scales at which they operate. Model systems provide a means of studying landscape scale processes at tractable scales. Here, we assess the combined effects of temperature and habitat-patch isolation on assembly of naturally diverse moss microarthropod communities after a high-temperature event. We show that community assembly depends on temperature and on degree of habitat isolation. Heated communities were heavily dominated in abundance by two species, one of them relatively large. The resulting size-structure is unlike that seen in the field. Community composition in habitat fragments appears also to have been influenced by the source pool of recolonizing fauna. Our results highlight the value of dispersal in disturbed landscapes and the potential for habitat connectivity to buffer communities from the effects of climate change.

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Performance of Multicriteria Evaluation and Heuristic Methods in the Delineation of Green Infrastructure in Areas with Fragmented Landscapes

IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering ◽

10.1088/1757-899x/1203/2/022059 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1203 (2) ◽

pp. 022059

Author(s):

Rocío Losada ◽

Marcos Boullón ◽

Andrés M. García ◽

David Miranda

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Simulated Annealing ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Green Infrastructure ◽

Landscape Scale ◽

Fragmented Landscape ◽

Heuristic Methods ◽

Fragmented Landscapes ◽

Multicriteria Evaluation ◽

Wide Range

Abstract The EU Commission has established Green infrastructure as one of the tools to preserve biodiversity and grant the provision of ecosystem services that reduce impacts on natural values like those produced by climate change. Therefore, a European green infrastructure strategy has been created that commit member states to incorporate green infrastructure to their territorial planning. Yet, methodologies to delimit green infrastructure so as to facilitate its inclusion in territorial plans are still scarce. The available methods are mainly based in multicriteria evaluation and focus on zoning general green infrastructure areas taking into account the provision potential of just a few ecosystem services. Considering the provision of a wide range of ecosystem services to delimit green infrastructure elements is key to grant their multifunctionality and increase their efficiency mitigating climate change impacts in natural values and human population. However, the lack of data or the high cost to accurately map ecosystem services provision potential, leads most of the time to infer it from land cover data. This creates problems when using these maps to delimit green infrastructure in areas with fragmented landscapes; since identified green infrastructure areas may be irregular and scattered. There are heuristic methods like simulated annealing that have been used to identify ecosystem services hot spots which consider the regularity and size of the identified patches. These methods can be used to delimit green infrastructure in fragmented landscapes finding a balance between the regularity of the areas and their potential to provide multiple ecosystem services. In the current work, a comparison has been made between the performance of simulated annealing and current multicriteria evaluation methods to delimit green infrastructure multifunctional buffer zones in an area of north-western Spain with a very fragmented landscape. Results have shown that simulated annealing delimits more regular multifunctional buffer areas but with a less average potential for providing multiple ecosystem services. The conclusions of the paper indicate that simulated annealing is good produces more regular multifunctional areas but with a lower ESs provision potential. It was observed that in the case of ESs that were mapped considering factors at landscape scale, their provision potential did not vary too much between the multifunctional buffer areas delimited with each of the methods. This indicates that delineation methods may produce more regular GI elements if ESs provision potential is mapped considering the influence of biophysical factors at a wider landscape scale.

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