POLICY CO-ORDINATION IN THE CONTEXT OF JAPANESE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE POLICY

Author(s):  
ISAO KUBOTA
2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (190) ◽  
pp. 103-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Gligoric

This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested).


2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-273
Author(s):  
Inayat U. Mangla ◽  
Jamshed Y. Uppal

The paper assesses the energy sector’s foreign exchange requirements for meeting energy consumption and for capital expenditures, and identifies its implications for the country’s macroeconomic policy and management. We develop a conceptual model for projecting the energy sector’s long-term requirements for foreign exchange. The model indicates that the country’s chronic dependence on oil imports is likely to expose the economy to high and volatile oil prices. A fundamental issue for Pakistan is how the energy projects requiring large inflows of foreign capital and technology will be financed. The main implication of our analysis is that there will be continuing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources. The demand for foreign exchange by the year 2024-25 is projected to be US$ 20-21 billion without the FDI in new power generation. However, when we include the requirements of foreign exchange for capital expenditure, the total FX requirements are in the range of US$ 23- 24 billion. An implication of the country’s chronic energy deficiency is that the macroeconomic policies, particularly the foreign exchange rate policy, need to be redefined to reflect the projected demands on hard currencies and their expected scarcity value. It is likely that Pakistan will remain dependent on foreign imports to meet its energy requirements for a long time and will need to generate commensurate foreign exchange resources to ensure longterm energy security. JEL classification: E66, F37, Q43 Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Energy Security


1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hashem Pesaran

As a result of the oil price shocks, the 1979 revolution, and the eight-year war with Iraq, fundamental changes have taken place in Iran's foreign exchange position as well as in its exchange rate policy. The viable data over the period 1979–1980 to 1988–1989 clearly show that, despite the revolutionary rhetoric, very little has been done to reduce the country's dependence on oil exports as a source of foreign exchange and government revenues. Instead, in the face of falling oil revenues and the country's increasing international isolation, coupled with the regime's unwillingness to incur foreign debt, the government has adopted a severe ‘import compression’ policy through selective tariffs and quotas, strict control of private and government imports by means of import licenses, and the imposition of foreign exchange allocations on government agencies. The result has been an ever-rising premium on the U.S. dollar in the ‘black’ market, a highly overvalued official exchange rate, a substantial increase in rent-seeking activities at the expense of production, a severe misallocation of resources, and loss of output and industrial capacity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Ali Farhan Chaudhry ◽  
Mian Muhammd Hanif ◽  
Sameera Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Irfan Chani

This empirical study is first of its nature to examine the weak-form of efficiency for unofficial foreign exchange market of Pakistan proxied by Japanese Yen (JPY/PKR), Swiss Franc (CHF/PKR), British Pound (GBP/PKR), and US Dollar (USD/PKR) exchange rates. For this we have employed Ljung Box Q-test, unit root tests including Dickey-Fuller (Dickey 1979), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Dickey 1981) tests and Phillips and Perron (1988) test, Durbin Watson test, Runs-test, and Variance ratio test by using unofficial foreign exchange rate time series of Yen/PKR, CHF/PKR, GBP/PKR and USD/PKR from 1994M07 to 2001M06. Empirical results lead to the conclusion that the unofficial foreign exchange market of Pakistan is weak-form efficiency. The implications of this empirical research are of great importance for designing foreign exchange policy i.e. policy makers (be it accounting, export/import or public policy makers) are to consider fluctuations in unofficial foreign exchange rates while designing official foreign exchange rate policy of developing country like Pakistan. Further, policymakers can enhance the efficiency of official foreign exchange market by intervention subject to a widening of unofficial foreign exchange premium beyond a certain limit in developing countries like Pakistan.


2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-39
Author(s):  
E.  M. Sandoyan ◽  
M.  A.  Voskanyan ◽  
A.  G.  Galstyan

Usually, it is diffcult for developing countries to choose a currency regulation policy because of institutional inadequacy, including a signifcant level of concentration in commodity markets, and a high degree of dependence of the national market and fnancial system on exogenous factors and a huge external debt. This article is dedicated to the analysis and evaluation of key factors affecting the formation of the Armenian national currency (dram) exchange rate, as well as to the choice of the currency regulation policy in Armenia. The authors carried out a statistical and econometric analysis of the factors of the foreign exchange rate formation, taking into account the specifcs of the transition economy as a whole, as well as the features of the Armenian economy, in particular. The authors have identifed the exogenous and endogenous factors of the foreign exchange rate formation of the dram, depending on the inflow and outflow of foreign currency. Further, the authors specifed the influence of dominant factors on the choice of the currency regulation policy in the country. The authors carried out an econometric analysis of the factors identifed at the frst stage of the study using the VAR model. The results obtained from this model proved the hypothesis of the non-market nature of the dram’s exchange rate formation. The authors concluded that the dram’s exchange rate formation has non-market nature because of signifcant intervention on the currency market by the “monetary authorities”. The key conclusion of this study is the thesis about the need to change the approaches to currency regulation in Armenia in favour of the transition to a free-floating exchange rate policy in order to stimulate sustainable rates of economic growth in the long term.


2011 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 423-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claus D. Zimmermann

History is replete with examples where states have interfered with foreign exchange markets in order to influence exchange rates. The trade conflicts between the two world wars, for instance, were fought not only via the imposition of tariffs, but also via competitive devaluations. Since then, straightforward competitive devaluations have become a rare phenomenon; contemporary scenarios, in which exchange rate policies are criticized for their potentially protectionist impact, tend to be much more sophisticated. The exchange rate policy followed by China is certainly the outstanding, yet not exclusive, example. In recent years policymakers worldwide have criticized China for maintaining an undervalued real exchange rate as part of its strategy of export-led growth.


Author(s):  
Tijana Šoja

The paper points to the conceptualdefinition of foreign exchange reserves, the role,importance and objectives for holding foreignexchange reserves as well as evaluating the requiredamount of foreign exchange reserves, or adequacy offoreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchangereserves are important assets in each country andthey are significantly affected by monetary policy,exchange rate policy or regulation and externalinstability and the impact of the crisis that may comefrom the environment. This paper presents a simpleway of estimates of adequacy and optimality offoreign exchange reserves, which are basis for theanalysis of foreign exchange reserves, as well as inthe construction of statistical and mathematicalmodels that detail the optimal level of internationalreserves. Special review was paid to the assessmentof the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves ofBosnia and Herzegovina, and the Central Bank ofBosnia and Herzegovina.


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