A LRFD Code Format for Accounting Long-Term Variation of Multiple Load Effects

Author(s):  
Paulo Mauricio Videiro ◽  
Luis Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima

This paper proposes a Load and Resistance Factors Design (LRFD) code format for structural components of offshore structures under multiple load effects. This code format accounts for the long-term variation of seastate and the actual correlation between dynamic load effects due to environmental actions. Ultimate limit states are formulated in terms of an Interaction Ratio (IR) random variable, such that the long-term extreme value of IR greater than unity means component failure. The long-term distribution of IR is obtained by combining the distribution of each short-term seastate. The short-term response of the generally nonlinear IR is determined by time domain simulation, taking into account partial load and resistance factors. The IR short-term distribution may be fitted, for instance, by using Rayleigh or Weibull distribution. The main advantages of the proposed code format are: • This code format accounts implicitly and correctly for the actual correlation among all dynamic environmental load processes. • Structural designers have used interaction ratios for a long time. Hence, it is straightforward to evolve from a deterministic stage of looking for IR < 1, as in old Working Stress Design codes, to a code format where the aim is to design structural components with long term IR extreme value < 1. The feasibility of the proposed code format is demonstrated by calibrating partial factors for beam-column cylindrical members based on components of a Floating Production System Semi-submersible hull.

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.


1995 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 409-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen R. Pollard ◽  
P. L. Cottrell

The RV Tauri stars are semiregular pulsating variables located in the brightest part of the Cepheid II instability strip. They have a characteristic light curve of alternating deep and shallow minima. A subset of the RV Tauri stars (the RVb subclass) exhibit long-term (500 to 2600 day) light and radial velocity variations. Although it is well established that the short-term variations are due to pulsations, the long-term behaviour is not well understood.BVRI photometry and high-resolution spectra of U Mon (the brightest member of the RVb subclass) were obtained at the Mt John University Observatory (MJUO) between 1990 Aug and 1994 May. The light and colour curves obtained clearly show the long-term variation in U Mon (Fig. 1(a) and (b)). The reddest colours occur slightly later than the long-term minimum in the light curve. The short-term light and colour variations are ‘damped’ at the long-term minimum.


2011 ◽  
Vol 255-260 ◽  
pp. 338-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Wang ◽  
Feng Lin ◽  
Xiang Lin Gu

Due to the absence of provision for the load and resistance factors in design codes in China, designers often quote the provisions which are given in criterion or guidance of other countries such as USA. However, the partial safety factors of the load are various in different criterions. Based on the reliability theory, the load and resistance factors for progressive collapse resistance design of building structures were determined in this study. Firstly the simplified format of design expression in the ultimate state was obtained according to the expression in routine structural design. Then the failure probability of a structure during design reference period was taken as the sum of the probability of all incompatible failure events in this period, and the objective reliability index of the structure could be obtained. Finally using trial-and-error procedure and JC method, reliability analysis was performed for structural members to obtain the partial safety factors of load effects and resistance and the coefficient for combination value of load effects in design expression in the ultimate state. In this paper the load and resistance factors for progressive collapse resistance design of reinforced concrete structures subjected to blast was calculated as an example, and the recommendation values were given for the application at last.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eirini Boleti ◽  
Christoph Hueglin ◽  
Stuart K. Grange ◽  
André S. H. Prévôt ◽  
Satoshi Takahama

Abstract. Air quality measures that were implemented in Europe in the 1990s resulted in reductions of ozone precursors concentrations. In this study, the effect of these reductions on ozone is investigated by analyzing surface measurements of ozone for the time period between 2000 and 2015. Using a non-parametric time scale decomposition methodology, the long-term, seasonal and short-term variation of ozone observations were extracted. A clustering algorithm was applied to the different time scale variations, leading to a classification of sites across Europe based on the temporal characteristics of ozone. The clustering based on the long-term variation resulted in a site type classification, while a regional classification was obtained based on the seasonal and short-term variations. Long-term trends of de-seasonalized mean and meteo-adjusted peak ozone concentrations were calculated across large parts of Europe for the time period 2000–2015. A multi-dimensional scheme was used for a detailed trend analysis, based on the identified clusters, which reflect precursor emissions and meteorological influence either on the inter-annual or the short-term time scale. Decreasing mean ozone concentrations at rural sites and increasing or stabilizing at urban sites were observed. At the same time downward trends for peak ozone concentrations were detected for all site types. The effect of hemispheric transport of ozone can be seen either in regions affected by synoptic patterns in the northern Atlantic or at sites located at remote high altitude locations. In addition, a reduction of the amplitude in the seasonal cycle of ozone was observed, and a shift in the occurrence of the seasonal maximum towards earlier time of the year. Finally, a reduced sensitivity of ozone to temperature was identified. It was concluded that long-term trends of mean and peak ozone concentrations are mostly controlled by precursors emissions changes, while seasonal cycle trends and changes in the sensitivity of ozone to temperature are driven by regional climatic conditions.


2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 808-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.L. Thorley ◽  
D.M.R. Eatherley ◽  
A.B. Stephen ◽  
I. Simpson ◽  
J.C. MacLean ◽  
...  

Abstract The potential utility of rod catch and automatic fish counter data as measures of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) abundance in Scottish rivers was assessed. The trend (long-term) and residual (short-term) variation in the net annual count for 12 counters were compared with the trend and residual variation in either the annual or spring (February–May) rod catch, as appropriate, for the fisheries district in which the counter is located. Trends were fitted using a cubic smoothing spline and compared using reference bands. In eight of the 12 short-term comparisons, the residuals were significantly correlated. The four incongruent short-term comparisons involved the shortest time-series (≤12 years) or lowest rod catches. In eight of the 12 long-term comparisons, the trends fell within the reference bands in 50% or more of the years. Rod catch and counter data both contain useful information about Atlantic salmon abundance, albeit on different temporal and spatial scales, which should be integrated into assessment schemes.


Author(s):  
Partha Chakrabarti ◽  
Sanjay Joshi ◽  
Kaushik Bose ◽  
Majid Al-Sharif

Normal procedure for design of a ship shaped Floating Production Unit (FPU) is to use Rule Based approach recommended by the Classification Societies. In this approach the primary design strength quantities such as longitudinal and transverse wave induced bending moments, shear forces etc. are calculated based on formulae prescribed by the Classification Society Rules. In the Rules, these formulae have been validated for a class of ocean going vessels such as container ships or tankers, as the case may be, for open ocean conditions akin to the Northern Atlantic. Thus, actual hydrodynamic response of the vessel to a defined sea conditions at a location of service need not be calculated. FPUs are different from ocean going vessels in that they are usually fixed at a location for several years of service with the help of some station keeping arrangement such as a mooring system or a dynamic positioning system, except for transit. An alternate approach is to use direct calculations for hydrodynamic response of the vessel to the site specific sea conditions at the operating site. The hull geometry may also be very much different from a conventional tanker due to addition of sponsons that could justify such an approach. In addition, an FPU is likely to support several equipment modules on top of the deck which is different from the loading of usual cargo ships and may demand more accurate calculations. Thus, in order to design the module support footings one is interested to know the actual accelerations at the module center of gravity. Many Classification Societies allow use of this direct approach, but it appears that this route is seldom taken possibly due to complexities of hydrodynamic analysis. Response quantities of interest for the design of the vessel, such as hull bending moment, acceleration, roll angle etc., are selected as the Dominant Load Component (DLC). In general, there are two methods to compute the extreme hydrodynamic response of any DLC, short term method and long term method, the latter being considered as superior and an extension of the former. The wave environment is defined in terms of the probabilities of different sea states at the specific offshore location through a directional scatter diagram. The long-term response refers to the long term Most Probable Extreme Value (MPEV) of the response at a specific probability level of exceedance derived from the short term responses. Usually, the MPEV of the DLC having a Return Period of 100 years, i.e., a probability of occurrence roughly of the order of 10−8.7 is taken as the extreme design response. For each DLC, an equivalent regular wave called the Design Wave is determined which simulates the magnitude of this extreme value of the Dominant Load Component for the purpose of the structural analysis. For the FPU discussed in this paper a detailed 3D Finite Element Model is created and the hydrodynamic loads corresponding to each Design Wave for the DLC are applied for the structural analysis. Gulf of Mexico weather conditions are taken as the operating area. In this paper, selected results from the hydrodynamic approach are reported and compared with similar results from the conventional Rule Based approach. If any difference is found, the possible reasons thereof are discussed. The authors believe that the methodology and results reported in this paper for a specific FPU will help to understand the true behavior of other ship type FPUs for the site specific conditions and the same methodology can be applied for design.


2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 422-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Langan ◽  
D. Hirst

Abstract. A long term record of water chemistry, consisting of twenty years of weekly spot samples, from three sub-catchments draining into a loch and the loch outflow in Galloway, S.W. Scotland have been analysed. The analysis undertaken consisted of a three component statistical trend model. The technique allows the identification of long-term, seasonal and short-term trends, as well as differentiation between base flow and high flow responses. The land usage in the three sub-catchments is moorland, forest and forest plus lime. The results show that, since the mid-1980s, there has been a gradual decline in stream-water sulphate of the same order as reductions in the deposition of non-marine sulphate. Superimposed on this trend are somewhat random but considerable perturbations to this decline, caused by sea-salt deposition. There is no evidence of changes in surface water nitrate concentrations. The influence of different land management is evident in the sulphate, nitrate and pH data, whilst variations in calcium concentrations are also a product of differences in hydrological routing and the impact of sea-salt episodes. Keywords: trend analysis, acid deposition, land management, water quality, sea-salts, Galloway, S.W. Scotland


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document