A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Boulanger ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Philip J. Burton
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Ecological Patterns ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
In Fire

Broad-scale fire regime modelling is frequently based on large ecological and (or) administrative units. However, these units may not capture spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes and may thus lead to spatially inaccurate estimates of future fire activity. In this study, we defined homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones for Canada based on annual area burned (AAB) and fire occurrence (FireOcc), and we used them to model future (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) fire activity using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). We identified a total of 16 HFR zones explaining 47.7% of the heterogeneity in AAB and FireOcc for the 1959–1999 period. MARS models based on HFR zones projected a 3.7-fold increase in AAB and a 3.0-fold increase in FireOcc by 2100 when compared with 1961–1990, with great interzone heterogeneity. The greatest increases would occur in zones located in central and northwestern Canada. Much of the increase in AAB would result from a sharp increase in fire activity during July and August. Ecozone- and HFR-based models projected relatively similar nationwide FireOcc and AAB. However, very high spatial discrepancies were noted between zonations over extensive areas. The proposed HFR zonation should help providing more spatially accurate estimates of future ecological patterns largely driven by fire in the boreal forest such as biodiversity patterns, energy flows, and carbon storage than those obtained from large-scale multipurpose classification units.

Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Magnussen ◽  
Stephen W. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Regional Synchrony

Year-to-year variation in fire activity in Canada constitutes a key challenge for fire management agencies. Interagency sharing of fire management resources has been ongoing on regional, national and international scales in Canada for several decades to better cope with peaks in resource demand. Inherent stressors on these schemes determined by the fire regimes in constituent jurisdictions are not well known, nor described by averages. We developed a statistical framework to examine the likelihood of regional synchrony of peaks in fire activity at a timescale of 1 week. Year-to-year variations in important fire regime variables and 48 regions in Canada are quantified by a joint distribution and profiled at the Provincial or Territorial level. The fire regime variables capture the timing of the fire season, the average number of fires, area burned, and the timing and extent of annual maxima. The onset of the fire season was strongly correlated with latitude and longitude. Regional synchrony in the timing of the maximum burned area within fire seasons delineates opportunities for and limitations to sharing of fire suppression resources during periods of stress that were quantified in Monte Carlo simulations from the joint distribution.

Historical fire regime shifts related to climate teleconnections in the Waswanipi area, central Quebec, Canada

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Martin P. Girardin
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Fire Activity

The synchrony of regional fire regime shifts across the Quebec boreal forest, eastern Canada, suggests that regional fire regimes are influenced by large-scale climate variability. The present study investigated the relationship of the forest-age distribution, reflecting the regional fire activity, to large-scale climate variations. The interdecadal variation in forest fire activity in the Waswanipi area, north-eastern Canada, was reconstructed over 1720–2000. Next, the 1880–2000 reconstructed fire activity was analysed using different proxies of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We estimated the global fire cycle around 132–153 years, with a major lengthening of the fire cycle from 99 years before 1940, to 282 years after 1940. Correlations between decadal fire activity and climate indices indicated a positive influence of the PDO. The positive influence of PDO on regional fire activity was also validated using t-tests between fire years and non-fire years between 1899 and 1996. Our results confirmed recent findings on the positive influence of the PDO on the fire activity over northern Quebec and the reinforcing role of the NAO in this relationship.

scholarly journals Modelling the drivers of natural fire activity: the bias created by cropland fires

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 845 ◽  
Author(s):  
İsmail Bekar ◽  
Çağatay Tavşanoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
Natural Fire ◽  
Geographic Factors ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Climatic Anthropogenic ◽  
In Fire

Wildland and cropland fires, which differ considerably in fire regime characteristics, have often been evaluated jointly to estimate regional or global fire regimes using satellite-based fire activity data. We hypothesised that excluding cropland fires will change the output of the models regarding the drivers of natural fire activity. We modelled MODIS fire activity data of western and southern Turkey for the years 2000–2015 using binomial generalised linear models in which many climatic, anthropogenic and geographic factors were included as predictor variables. For modelling, we used different datasets created by the exclusion of various cropland and vegetation land cover classes. More fire activity was observed as the number of cropland-dominated cells increased in a dataset. The explained deviance (%) of the binomial GLM differed substantially in the separate datasets for most of the variables. Moreover, excluding croplands gradually from the overall dataset resulted in a substantial decrease in the explained deviance (%) in the models for all variables. The results suggest that cropland fires have a significant effect on the output of fire regime models. Therefore, a clear distinction should be drawn between wildland and cropland fires in such models for a better understanding of natural fire activity.

Fire regime shift linked to increased forest density in a piñon–juniper savanna landscape

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.

scholarly journals Historical fire records at the two ends of Iberian Central Mountain System: Estrela massif and Ayllón massif

2019 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Catarina Romão Sequeira ◽  
Cristina Montiel-Molina ◽  
Francisco Castro Rego
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Multiscale Approach ◽  
Natural Region ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Mountain System ◽  
History Of ◽  
In Fire

The Iberian Peninsula has a long history of fire, as the Central Mountain System, from the Estrela massif in Portugal to the Ayllón massif in Spain, is a major fire-prone area. Despite being part of the same natural region, there are different environmental, political and socio-economic contexts at either end, which might have led to distinct human causes of wildfires and associated fire regimes. The hypothesis for this research lies in the historical long-term relationship between wildfire risks and fire use practices within a context of landscape dynamics. In addition to conducting an analysis of the statistical period, a spatial and temporal multiscale approach was taken by reconstructing the historical record of prestatistical fires and land management history at both ends of the Central Mountain System. The main result is the different structural causes of wildland fires at either end of the Central Mountain System, with human factors being more important than environmental factors in determining the fire regimes in both contexts. The study shows that the development of the fire regime was non-linear in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, due to broader local human context factors which led to a shift in fire-use practices.

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra D. Syphard ◽  
Jon E. Keeley
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Unsupervised Classification ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
The State ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Lower Variability ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
In Fire

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

scholarly journals Fire regimes in eastern coastal fynbos: Imperatives and thresholds in managing for diversity

Koedoe ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tineke Kraaij ◽  
Richard M. Cowling ◽  
Brian W. Van Wilgen
Keyword(s):  
Fire Ecology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Plant Management ◽  
Alien Plant ◽  
Invasive Alien Plant

Until recently, fire ecology was poorly understood in the eastern coastal region of the Cape Floral Kingdom (CFK), South Africa. Rainfall in the area is aseasonal and temperatures are milder than in the winter-rainfall and drier inland parts of the CFK, with implications for the management of fire regimes. We synthesised the findings of a research programme focused on informing ecologically sound management of fire in eastern coastal fynbos shrublands and explored potential east–west trends at the scales of study area and CFK in terms of fire return interval (FRI) and fire season. FRIs (8–26 years; 1980–2010) were comparable to those elsewhere in the CFK and appeared to be shorter in the eastern Tsitsikamma than in the western Outeniqua halves of the study area. Proteaceae juvenile periods (4–9 years) and post-fire recruitment success suggested that for biodiversity conservation purposes, FRIs should be ≥ 9 years in eastern coastal fynbos. Collectively, findings on the seasonality of actual fires and the seasonality of fire danger weather, lightning and post-fire proteoid recruitment suggested that fires in eastern coastal fynbos are not limited to any particular season. We articulated these findings into ecological thresholds pertaining to the different elements of the fire regime in eastern coastal fynbos, to guide adaptive management of fire in the Garden Route National Park and elsewhere in the region.Conservation implications: Wildfires are likely to remain dominant in eastern coastal fynbos, whilst large-scale implementation of prescribed burning is unattainable. Fires occurring in any season are not a reason for concern, although other constraints remain: the need for sufficient fire intensity, safety requirements, and integration of fire and invasive alien plant management.

scholarly journals The status and challenge of global fire modelling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hantson ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
S. P. Harrison ◽  
D. I. Kelley ◽  
I. C. Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Current State ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
The Status ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1605-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell A. Parsons ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Brigitte Dorner ◽  
Joseph Fall
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Fire Intervals ◽  
In Fire

We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of estimates of Weibull median probability fire intervals (WMPI) to sampling design and to factors that degrade the fire scar record: failure of a tree to record a fire and loss of fire-scarred trees. Accuracy was affected by all of the factors investigated and generally varied with fire regime type. The maximum error was from degradation of the record, primarily because degradation reduced the number of intervals from which WMPI was estimated. The sampling designs were roughly equal in their ability to capture overall WMPI, regardless of fire regime, but the gridded design yielded more accurate estimates of spatial variation in WMPI. Accuracy in WMPI increased with increasing number of points sampled for all fire regimes and sampling designs, but the number of points needed to obtain accurate estimates was greater for fire regimes with complex spatial patterns of fire intervals than for those with relatively homogeneous patterns.

scholarly journals The Iberian Peninsula’s Burning Heart—Long-Term Fire History in the Toledo Mountains (Central Spain)

Fire ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger ◽  
Blarquez ◽  
Pérez-Díaz ◽  
Morales-Molino ◽  
López-Sáez
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Nature Management ◽  
Central Spain ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

Long-term fire ecology can help to better understand the major role played by fire in driving vegetation composition and structure over decadal to millennial timescales, along with climate change and human agency, especially in fire-prone areas such as the Mediterranean basin. Investigating past ecosystem dynamics in response to changing fire activity, climate, and land use, and how these landscape drivers interact in the long-term is needed for efficient nature management, protection, and restoration. The Toledo Mountains of central Spain are a mid-elevation mountain complex with scarce current anthropic intervention located on the westernmost edge of the Mediterranean basin. These features provide a perfect setting to study patterns of late Holocene fire activity and landscape transformation. Here, we have combined macroscopic charcoal analysis with palynological data in three peat sequences (El Perro, Brezoso, and Viñuelas mires) to reconstruct fire regimes during recent millennia and their linkages to changes in vegetation, land use, and climatic conditions. During a first phase (5000–3000 cal. BP) characterized by mixed oak woodlands and low anthropogenic impact, climate exerted an evident influence over fire regimes. Later, the data show two phases of increasing human influence dated at 3000–500 cal. BP and 500 cal. BP–present, which translated into significant changes in fire regimes increasingly driven by human activity. These results contribute to prove how fire regimes have changed along with human societies, being more related to land use and less dependent on climatic cycles.

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