The Development and Implementation of a Human-Caused Wildland Fire Occurrence Prediction System for the Province of Ontario, Canada

We describe the development and implementation of an operational human-caused wildland fire occurrence prediction (FOP) system in the Province of Ontario, Canada. A suite of supervised statistical learning models was developed using more than 50 years of high-resolution data over a 73.8 million hectare study area, partitioned into Ontario’s Northwest and Northeast Fire Management Regions. A stratified modelling approach accounts for different seasonal baselines regionally and for a set of communities in the far north. Response-dependent sampling and modelling techniques using logistic Generalized Additive Models are used to develop a fine-scale, spatio-temporal FOP system with models that include non-linear relationships with key predictors. These predictors include inter and intra-annual temporal trends, spatial trends, ecological variables, fuel moisture measures, human land use characteristics and a novel measure of human activity. The system produces fine-scale, spatially explicit maps of daily probabilistic human-caused FOP based on locally observed conditions along with point and interval predictions for the expected number of fires in each region. A simulation-based approach for generating the prediction intervals is described. Daily predictions were made available to fire management practitioners through a custom dashboard and integrated into daily regional planning to support detection and fire suppression preparedness needs.

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Evaluating Lightning‐Caused Fire Occurrence Using Spatial Generalized Additive Models: A Case Study in Central Spain

Risk Analysis ◽

10.1111/risa.13488 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 40 (7) ◽

pp. 1418-1437

Author(s):

José Ramón Rodríguez‐Pérez ◽

Celestino Ordóñez ◽

Javier Roca‐Pardiñas ◽

Daniel Vecín‐Arias ◽

Fernando Castedo‐Dorado

Keyword(s):

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Additive Models ◽

Fire Occurrence ◽

Central Spain

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Changing fuel management strategies - The challenge of meeting new information and analysis needs

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf01027 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 267 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Susan G. Conard ◽

Timothy Hartzell ◽

Michael W. Hilbruner ◽

G. Thomas Zimmerman

Keyword(s):

Fire Management ◽

Wildland Fire ◽

Fire Suppression ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Scientific Basis ◽

Fuel Management ◽

Burned Areas ◽

Ecological Principles ◽

In Fire

This paper was presented at the conference ‘Integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management’, Boise, Idaho, USA, June 1999 ‘The earth, born in fire, baptized by lightning since before life"s beginning, has been and is a fire planet.’ E.V. Komarek Attitudes and policies concerning wildland fire, fire use, and fire management have changed greatly since early European settlers arrived in North America. Active suppression of wildfires accelerated early in the 20th Century, and areas burned dropped dramatically. In recent years, burned areas and cost of fires have begun to increase, in part due to fuel buildups resulting from fire suppression. The importance of fire as an ecosystem process is also being increasingly recognized. These factors are leading to changes in Federal agency fire and fuels management policies, including increased emphasis on use of prescribed fire and other treatments to reduce fuel loads and fire hazard. Changing fire management strategies have highlighted the need for better information and improved risk analysis techniques for setting regional and national priorities, and for monitoring and evaluating the ecological, economic, and social effects and tradeoffs of fuel management treatments and wildfires. The US Department of Interior and USDA Forest Service began the Joint Fire Science Program in 1998 to provide a sound scientific basis for implementing and evaluating fuel management activities. Development of remote sensing and GIS tools will play a key role in enabling land managers to evaluate hazards, monitor changes, and reduce risks to the environment and the public from wildland fires.

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Validating the use of generalized additive models and at-sea surveys to estimate size and temporal trends of seabird populations

Journal of Applied Ecology ◽

10.1046/j.1365-2664.2003.00802.x ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 40 (2) ◽

pp. 278-292 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

E. D. Clarke ◽

L. B. Spear ◽

M. L. Mccracken ◽

F. F. C. Marques ◽

D. L. Borchers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Additive Models

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Rekindle dynamics: validating the pressure on wildland fire suppression resources and implications for fire management in Portugal

Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Forest Fires III ◽

10.2495/fiva120191 ◽

2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

A. P. Pacheco ◽

J. Claro ◽

T. Oliveira

Keyword(s):

Fire Management ◽

Wildland Fire ◽

Fire Suppression

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Satellite UV-Vis spectroscopy: implications for air quality trends and their driving forces in China during 2005–2017

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1774 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Chengxin Zhang ◽

Cheng Liu ◽

Qihou Hu ◽

Zhaonan Cai ◽

Wenjing Su ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Eastern China ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Additive Models ◽

Ozone Monitoring Instrument ◽

Vis Spectroscopy ◽

Ambient Concentrations

Abundances of a range of air pollutants can be inferred from satellite UV-Vis spectroscopy measurements by using the unique absorption signatures of gas species. Here, we implemented several spectral fitting methods to retrieve tropospheric NO2, SO2, and HCHO from the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI), with radiative simulations providing necessary information on the interactions of scattered solar light within the atmosphere. We analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal trends of satellite-observed air pollutants over eastern China during 2005&#8211;2017, especially in heavily polluted regions. We found significant decreasing trends in NO2 and SO2 since 2011 over most regions, despite varying temporal features and turning points. In contrast, an overall increasing trend was identified for tropospheric HCHO over these regions in recent years. Furthermore, generalized additive models were implemented to understand the driving forces of air quality trends in China and assess the effectiveness of emission controls. Our results indicated that although meteorological parameters, such as wind, water vapor, solar radiation and temperature, mainly dominated the day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations in air pollutants, anthropogenic emissions played a unique role in the long-term variation in the ambient concentrations of NO2, SO2, and HCHO in the past 13 years. Generally, recent declines in NO2 and SO2 could be attributed to emission reductions due to effective air quality policies, and the opposite trends in HCHO may urge the need to control anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions.

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Changes in the timing and length of the fire season in Spain

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20346 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Itziar R. Urbieta ◽

Gonzalo Arellano ◽

José M. Moreno

Keyword(s):

Fire Suppression ◽

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Summer Season ◽

Additive Models ◽

Fire Season ◽

Burned Area ◽

Burned Areas ◽

Spatial Differences ◽

Mediterranean Regions ◽

In Fire

Fire activity has decreased in the last decades in Spain, as a whole and in most regions. However, little is known about the changes in the fire season peak, timing, and length. Here we studied the temporal variation in the fire season since the 1970&#8217;s for different Spanish regions. We analyzed weekly time series of annually burned area by fitting GAMs (Generalized Additive Models) models in R. Area burned was log transformed and smoothing P-splines were fit to study weekly seasonality. GAMS allowed us to model spring, summer, and autumn fire seasons. Changes in the sign of the smoothing parameter determined the timing (onset/end dates) of each fire season, while the maximum value of the parameter established the peak of the fire season. We applied trend analysis to study inter-annual variation in fire season timing, length, and amplitude. We found temporal and spatial differences in the fire season across regions. In the northern Atlantic regions, models performed better, and captured a bimodal fire season (spring-summer). Nonetheless, the bimodal fire-season structure is no longer distinguishable in recent years, since both are increasing in duration. In the Mediterranean regions, larger peaks of burned areas occur in shorter time spans. The amplitude and duration of the summer season is decreasing, probably due to the increase in fire suppression during the summer. The summer season is starting earlier, while, in general, no trend was found for the end of the season. Furthermore, spring fire peaks in Mediterranean regions are becoming more frequent, suggesting that more attention should be paid to these out-of-season conditions.

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An overview of LEOPARDS: The Level of Protection Analysis System

The Forestry Chronicle ◽

10.5558/tfc75615-4 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 75 (4) ◽

pp. 615-621 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

R. S. McAlpine ◽

K. G. Hirsch

Keyword(s):

Fire Management ◽

Fire Suppression ◽

Primary Component ◽

Fire Occurrence ◽

Resource Information ◽

Area Burned ◽

Occurrence Data ◽

Management Policies ◽

Analysis System ◽

Management Issues

The Level of Protection Analysis System (LEOPARDS) allows the structured assessment of the outcomes and costs associated with alternative fire management policies, budgets, and suppression resource mixes. Its primary component is a deterministic, spatially conscious simulation model that emulates the daily fire suppression activities of a provincial fire management agency. Inputs for the model include historical fire weather and fire occurrence data, land-use objectives and operational rules, and infrastructure and suppression resource information. The model estimates physical outcomes (e.g., response time, number of escaped fires, area burned), fiscal results (e.g., fixed and variable costs), and resource utilization information. LEOPARDS has been used to address a number of strategic fire management issues in the province of Ontario and is being assessed for use in other parts of Canada.

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Hospital usage of TOXBASE in Great Britain: Temporal trends in accesses 2008 to 2015

Human & Experimental Toxicology ◽

10.1177/0960327118759405 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 37 (11) ◽

pp. 1207-1214 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

K Pyper ◽

M Eddleston ◽

DN Bateman ◽

D Lupton ◽

S Bradberry ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Emergency Admission ◽

Additive Models ◽

Seasonal Patterns ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Day Of The Week ◽

Future Work ◽

Long Term Trend

Aim: To examine temporal trends in accesses to the UK’s National Poison Information Service’s TOXBASE database in Britain. Methods: Generalized additive models were used to examine trends in daily numbers of accesses to TOXBASE from British emergency departments between January 2008 and December 2015. Day-of-the-week, seasonality and long-term trends were analysed at national and regional levels (Wales, Scotland and the nine English Government Office Regions). Results: The long-term trend in daily accesses increases from 2.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.6–3.0) per user on 1 January 2008 to 4.6 (95% CI: 4.3–4.9) on 31 December 2015, with small but significant differences in population-corrected accesses by region ( p < 0.001). There are statistically significant seasonal and day of the week patterns ( p < 0.001) across all regions. Accesses are 18% (95% CI: 14–22%) higher in summer than in January and at the weekend compared to weekdays in all regions; there is a 7.5% (95% CI: 6.1–8.9%) increase between Friday and Sunday. Conclusions: There are consistent in-year patterns in access to TOXBASE indicating potential seasonal patterns in poisonings in Britain, with location-dependent rates of usage. This novel descriptive work lays the basis for future work on the interaction of TOXBASE use with emergency admission of patients into hospital.

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