Changes in Species Interactions of the Lake Superior Fisheries System After the Control of Sea Lamprey as Indicated by Time Series Models

1990 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff N. Stone ◽  
Yosef Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Lake Trout ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Sea Lamprey ◽  
Trophic Relationships ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Intraspecific Interactions

Interspecific and intraspecific interactions of fish species in the Canadian commercial fisheries changed following the control of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). These changes were detected by a multivariate time series (MVTS) analysis of monthly time series of catch-per-unit-effort for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), lake herring (C. artedii), chubs (Coregonus spp.), walleye (Stizostedion vitreum), and yellow perch (Perca flavescens). The identified MVTS models reflected known trophic relationships among fish species and indicated that significant intraspecific interactions were more numerous than interspecific interactions. Lake trout interactions with other species appear to have changed due to stocking and diet change. Single species time series models confirmed the lag structure of the MVTS models and were useful for forecasting abundance.

Multivariate Time Series Analysis of the Canadian Fisheries System in Lake Superior

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (S2) ◽  
pp. s171-s181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Cohen ◽  
J. N. Stone
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Lake Trout ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Lake Superior ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Trophic Relationships ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Intraspecific Interactions

Data for the Canadian fisheries system in Lake Superior were organized into monthly time series of catch and effort from January 1963 through December 1976 for six fish species. Multivariate, autoregressive (ARMA) models were identified for the system based on data for the first 140 mo. Forecasts were compared to data for the last 28 mo. The structure of the models indicate that (1) within the system, AR processes, as opposed to MA processes, were of overriding importance, (2) intraspecific interactions (inferred from data on catch-per-unit-effort, CPUE) were more prevalent than interspecific interactions, (3) interactions within the system occurred with lags of 1, 4, 12, 24, 25, 28, and 36 mo, (4) some of the trophic relationships among the fish species were revealed by the models, and (5) CPUE time series of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) affected, but was not affected by, the CPUE time series of other species. The models were used to forecast catch and CPUE for the last 28 mo, and the data were generally within one standard error of the forecasts. The models may help policy decision makers to explore the effects of inputs (e.g. quota regulations) and feedbacks within the fisheries' system on outputs (e.g. production, CPUE).

scholarly journals Coexistence of surface and cave amphipods in an ecotone environment

2011 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Luštrik ◽  
Martin Turjak ◽  
Simona Kralj-Fišer ◽  
Cene Fišer
Keyword(s):  
Leaf Litter ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Habitat Choice ◽  
Intraspecific Interactions ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Predation Effects ◽  
Similar Body ◽  
Subterranean Species

Interspecific interactions between surface and subterranean species may be a key determinant for species distributions. Until now, the existence of competition (including predation) between these groups has not been tested. To assess the coexistence and potential role of interspecific interactions between surface Gammarus fossarum and subterranean Niphargus timavi, and to determine their micro distributions, we conducted a series of field and laboratory observations. We aimed to determine: (1) species substrate preference, (2) whether the presence of G. fossarum influences the habitat choice of N. timavi, and (3) possible predation effects on micro habitat choice of small juveniles. Throughout a small river in SW Slovenia, N. timavi was predominantly found in leaf litter and gravel, but rarely in sand. In the sand however, we exclusively found juveniles. In contrast, surface G. fossarum sheltered mainly in leaf litter. A similar, body size dependent, micro distribution was observed in G. fossarum, where small individuals were generally found in gravel and sand. The presence of G. fossarum affected the micro distribution of juvenile, but not adult, N. timavi. In the laboratory we observed predation and cannibalism in both species. Niphargus timavi, however, appeared to be a more efficient predator than G. fossarum. In particular, juvenile N. timavi were most vulnerable to preying by adults of both species. This probably affected the distribution of juvenile N. timavi that chose finer substrates when placed with adult individuals in an aquarium with granules of different size. To understand the distribution of subterranean species, the summed effect of intraspecific interactions, as well as surface – subterranean species interactions, in particular between individuals of different size, should be taken into account.

Vulnerability, Stability, and Coherence of the Fish Community in Lake Superior

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (S2) ◽  
pp. s404-s410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Cohen ◽  
J. N. Stone ◽  
T. L. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Fish Species ◽  
Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Lake Trout ◽  
Lake Superior ◽  
Sea Lamprey ◽  
Dominant Frequency ◽  
Vulnerability Analysis ◽  
Predatory Fish ◽  
Before And After

Vulnerability analysis and spectrum analysis were found useful in examining potential structural changes in fisheries systems influenced by large perturbations. In the 1950's the Ontario fisheries of Lake Superior experienced a major perturbation due to invasion by sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Vulnerability analysis indicated that invasion by sea lamprey and the consequent shifting of the fisheries to more intensive fishing on lower trophic level species resulted in higher vulnerability of the predatory fish species; i.e. likelihood of extinction increased. Spectrum analysis was then applied to the yield series of five fish species from Lake Superior. Analysis of the data before and after invasion by sea lamprey indicated major structural changes in the fishery: (1) except for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), either the dominant amplitude, the dominant frequency, or both decreased; (2) partial coherencies between pairs of yield series changed after the invasion; (3) lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and lake trout replaced lake herring (C. artedii) as the species whose fluctuations in commercial yield were most highly synchronized with those of the other species of commercial importance.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Two Anadromous Species in a Dam Intersected River: Analysis of Two 100-Year Datasets

Fishes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Ulisses M. Azeiteiro ◽  
Mário J. Pereira ◽  
Amadeu M. V. M. Soares ◽  
Heitor O. Braga ◽  
Fernando Morgado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Sea Lamprey ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Allis Shad ◽  
Alosa Alosa ◽  
Minho River

Long-term time-series datasets are key for assessing the population dynamics of fish species with economic interest. This study examines two 100-year datasets for sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus and allis shad Alosa alosa from the Minho River. This basin on the Iberian Peninsula is home to one of the largest populations at the southern distribution limit of these critically endangered anadromous fish species. Besides assessing the importance of the environmental drivers of fish capture data (temperature, salinity, upwelling, precipitation, and climatic oscillation), this study also assesses how dam construction affected these populations using intervention analysis—A statistical tool to detect significant breakpoints in time series data. Results showed contrasting trends between sea lamprey and allis shad, with the number of captured fish from the first progressively improving from 1914 to 2017, and the latter recording a significant decline over time. Although no significant correlations were detected between fishing data and environmental variables, some of the identified breakpoints in the time series data matched the dates when the major dams in Minho River were built. Other historical activities associated with mining might explain the notable changes detected in the trends, while issues associated with illegal, unreported, and unregulated capture data are also discussed.

Time Series Models of the Maine Lobster Fishery: The Effect of Temperature

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1145-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Fogarty
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Lobster Fishery ◽  
Function Models ◽  
Transfer Function Models

I used Box–Jenkins transfer function models to analyze the relationship between water temperature and Maine lobster catch and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE). I first modelled catch and CPUE with univariate autoregressive – integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to provide a basis for comparison with transfer function models. Time series models were constructed for annual Maine lobster landings during two periods: 1928–85 and 1945–85; catches during the latter period were assumed to be less dependent on changes in fishing effort. I also modelled annual CPUE for the period 1930–85 and monthly landings for 1968–85. Landings and CPUE for 1986 were held in reserve to check forecast estimates. An immediate temperature effect (lag 0–1 yr) was demonstrated for each annual series. This result is consistent with known aspects of lobster biology; activity levels and hence vulnerability to capture increase with water temperature. In addition, the probability of molting increases with increasing water temperature, affecting the short-term supply of legal-sized lobsters. A significant effect of temperature at a 6-yr lag was also indicated, but only for the 1945–85 catch series. Delayed effects of this type may indicate environmental influences on natality or survival during early life history stages. Time series models for the Maine lobster fishery provided forecasts for 1986 catch and CPUE which differed by no more than 4% of the actual 1986 levels.

Changes in Mortality of Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Michigan Waters of Lake Superior in Relation to Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) Predation, 1968–78

1980 ◽  
Vol 37 (11) ◽  
pp. 2063-2073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Pycha
Keyword(s):  
Fishery Management ◽  
Lake Trout ◽  
Lake Superior ◽  
Petromyzon Marinus ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Sea Lamprey ◽  
Salvelinus Namaycush ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Instantaneous Rate ◽  
Unit Effort

Total mortality rates of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) of age VII and older from eastern Lake Superior were estimated from catch curves of age distributions each year in 1968–78. The instantaneous rate of total mortality Z varied from 0.62 to 2.31 in close synchrony with sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) wounding rates on lake trout. The regression of transformed Z on the index of lamprey wounding, accounted for over 89% of the variation in lake trout mortality (r2 = 0.893). An iterative method of estimating rates of exploitation u, instantaneous rates of fishing mortality F, K (a constant relating sample catch per unit effort to population size), instantaneous normal natural mortality rate M, and instantaneous rate of mortality due to sea lamprey predation L from the sample catch per unit effort and total catch by the fishery is presented. A second method using the results of a 1970–71 tagging study to estimate the mean F in 1970–77 yielded closely similar results to the above and is presented as corroboration. The estimates of u, F, and M appear to be reasonable. F ranged from 0.17 in 1974 to 0.42 in 1969 and M was estimated at 0.26. L varied from 0.21 in 1974 to 1.70 in 1968. Management implications of various policies concerning sea lamprey control, exploitation, and stocking are discussed.Key words: lake trout, sea lamprey, lamprey control, mortality, predation, Lake Superior, fishery, management

scholarly journals Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds

Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 362 (6415) ◽  
pp. 680-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vojtěch Kubelka ◽  
Miroslav Šálek ◽  
Pavel Tomkovich ◽  
Zsolt Végvári ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nest Predation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Trophic Relationships ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
The Tropics

Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.

scholarly journals How are species interactions structured in species-rich communities? A new method for analysing time-series data

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1855) ◽  
pp. 20170768 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otso Ovaskainen ◽  
Gleb Tikhonov ◽  
David Dunson ◽  
Vidar Grøtan ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Species Pairs

Estimation of intra- and interspecific interactions from time-series on species-rich communities is challenging due to the high number of potentially interacting species pairs. The previously proposed sparse interactions model overcomes this challenge by assuming that most species pairs do not interact. We propose an alternative model that does not assume that any of the interactions are necessarily zero, but summarizes the influences of individual species by a small number of community-level drivers. The community-level drivers are defined as linear combinations of species abundances, and they may thus represent e.g. the total abundance of all species or the relative proportions of different functional groups. We show with simulated and real data how our approach can be used to compare different hypotheses on community structure. In an empirical example using aquatic microorganisms, the community-level drivers model clearly outperformed the sparse interactions model in predicting independent validation data.

Time-Series Models in Marketing: Some Recent Developments

Marketing ZFP ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (JRM 1) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Marnik G. Dekimpe ◽  
Dominique M. Hanssens
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Recent Developments

A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN UNIVARIATE AND BIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS FOR CRUDE PALM OIL INDUSTRY IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah ◽  
Nur Nadhirah Nanyan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Bivariate Time Series

The main purpose of this study is to compare the performances of univariate and bivariate models on four time series variables of the crude palm oil industry in Peninsular Malaysia. The monthly data for the four variables, which are the crude palm oil production, price, import and export, were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). In the first part of this study, univariate time series models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and autoregressive autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were used for modelling and forecasting purposes. Subsequently, the dependence between any two of the four variables were checked using the residuals’ sample cross correlation functions before modelling the bivariate time series. In order to model the bivariate time series and make prediction, the transfer function models were used. The forecast accuracy criteria used to evaluate the performances of the models were the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the univariate time series showed that the best model for predicting the production was ARIMA  while the ARAR algorithm were the best forecast models for predicting both the import and export of crude palm oil. However, ARIMA  appeared to be the best forecast model for price based on the MAE and MAPE values while ARFIMA  emerged the best model based on the RMSE value.  When considering bivariate time series models, the production was dependent on import while the export was dependent on either price or import. The results showed that the bivariate models had better performance compared to the univariate models for production and export of crude palm oil based on the forecast accuracy criteria used.

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