Minimizing the cost of wildland fire suppression: a model with uncertainty in predicted flame length and fire-line width produced

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1253-1259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Mees ◽  
David Strauss ◽  
Richard Chase
Keyword(s):  
Line Width ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Expected Cost ◽  
Control Time ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Attack Strategy

We describe a model that estimates the optimal total expected cost of a wildland fire, given uncertainty in both flame length and fire-line width produced. In the model, a sequence of possible fire-line perimeters is specified, each with a forecasted control time. For a given control time and fire line, the probability of containment of the fire is determined as a function of the fire-fighting resources available. Our procedure assigns the resources to the fire line so as to minimize the total expected cost. A key feature of the model is that the probabilities reflect the degree of uncertainty in (i) the width of fire line that can be built with a given resource allocation, and (ii) the flame length of the fire. The total expected cost associated with a given choice of fire line is the sum of: the loss or gain of value of the area already burned; the cost of the resources used in the attack; and the expected loss or gain of value beyond the fire line. The latter is the product of the probability that the chosen attack strategy fails to contain the fire and the value of the additional burned area that would result from such a failure. The model allows comparison of the costs of the different choices of fire line, and thus identification of the optimal strategy. A small case study is used to illustrate the procedure.

Factors influencing large wildland fire suppression expenditures

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Liang ◽  
Dave E. Calkin ◽  
Krista M. Gebert ◽  
Tyron J. Venn ◽  
Robin P. Silverstein
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Private Land ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Parsimonious Model

There is an urgent and immediate need to address the excessive cost of large fires. Here, we studied large wildland fire suppression expenditures by the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Among 16 potential non-managerial factors, which represented fire size and shape, private properties, public land attributes, forest and fuel conditions, and geographic settings, we found only fire size and private land had a strong effect on suppression expenditures. When both were accounted for, all the other variables had no significant effect. A parsimonious model to predict suppression expenditures was suggested, in which fire size and private land explained 58% of variation in expenditures. Other things being equal, suppression expenditures monotonically increased with fire size. For the average fire size, expenditures first increased with the percentage of private land within burned area, but as the percentage exceeded 20%, expenditures slowly declined until they stabilised when private land reached 50% of burned area. The results suggested that efforts to contain federal suppression expenditures need to focus on the highly complex, politically sensitive topic of wildfires on private land.

scholarly journals Modeling Fuel Treatment Costs on Forest Service Lands in the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 217-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Calkin ◽  
Krista Gebert
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Forest Service ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Usda Forest Service ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Treatment Type ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Years of successful fire suppression have led to high fuel loads on the nation's forests, and steps are being taken by the nation's land management agencies to reduce these fuel loads. However, to achieve desired outcomes in a fiscally responsible manner, the cost and effectiveness in reducing losses due to wildland fire of different fuel treatments in different forest settings must be understood. Currently, prioritizing fuel treatment activities and planning budget expenditures is limited by a lack of accurate cost data. The primary objective of this research was to develop regression models that may be used to estimate the cost of hazardous fuel reduction treatments based on USDA Forest Service Region, biophysical setting, treatment type, and design. A survey instrument was used to obtain activity-specific information directly from fire management officers at Forest Service Ranger Districts for treatments occurring between 2001 and 2003. For both prescribed burns and mechanical activities, treatment size described the largest amount of variation in cost per acre, with increased size reducing cost per acre, on average. We confirmed that data on Forest Service fuel treatment activities maintained in the National Fire Plan Operations and Reporting System were not sufficiently accurate for reasonable cost analysis and modeling.

Corrigendum to: Factors influencing large wildland fire suppression expenditures

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Liang ◽  
Dave E. Calkin ◽  
Krista M. Gebert ◽  
Tyron J. Venn ◽  
Robin P. Silverstein
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Private Land ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Parsimonious Model

There is an urgent and immediate need to address the excessive cost of large fires. Here, we studied large wildland fire suppression expenditures by the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Among 16 potential non-managerial factors, which represented fire size and shape, private properties, public land attributes, forest and fuel conditions, and geographic settings, we found only fire size and private land had a strong effect on suppression expenditures. When both were accounted for, all the other variables had no significant effect. A parsimonious model to predict suppression expenditures was suggested, in which fire size and private land explained 58% of variation in expenditures. Other things being equal, suppression expenditures monotonically increased with fire size. For the average fire size, expenditures first increased with the percentage of private land within burned area, but as the percentage exceeded 20%, expenditures slowly declined until they stabilised when private land reached 50% of burned area. The results suggested that efforts to contain federal suppression expenditures need to focus on the highly complex, politically sensitive topic of wildfires on private land.

Developing Schedule With Linear Programming (Case Study: STTF II Project Komplek Sukamukti Banjaran)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 34-45
Author(s):  
Naufal Dzikri Afifi ◽  
Ika Arum Puspita ◽  
Mohammad Deni Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Time Limit ◽  
Minimum Time ◽  
Service Cost ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Overtime Work ◽  
The Cost

Shift to The Front II Komplek Sukamukti Banjaran Project is one of the projects implemented by one of the companies engaged in telecommunications. In its implementation, each project including Shift to The Front II Komplek Sukamukti Banjaran has a time limit specified in the contract. Project scheduling is an important role in predicting both the cost and time in a project. Every project should be able to complete the project before or just in the time specified in the contract. Delay in a project can be anticipated by accelerating the duration of completion by using the crashing method with the application of linear programming. Linear programming will help iteration in the calculation of crashing because if linear programming not used, iteration will be repeated. The objective function in this scheduling is to minimize the cost. This study aims to find a trade-off between the costs and the minimum time expected to complete this project. The acceleration of the duration of this study was carried out using the addition of 4 hours of overtime work, 3 hours of overtime work, 2 hours of overtime work, and 1 hour of overtime work. The normal time for this project is 35 days with a service fee of Rp. 52,335,690. From the results of the crashing analysis, the alternative chosen is to add 1 hour of overtime to 34 days with a total service cost of Rp. 52,375,492. This acceleration will affect the entire project because there are 33 different locations worked on Shift to The Front II and if all these locations can be accelerated then the duration of completion of the entire project will be effective

Perancangan dan Pembuatan Alat Bantu Meja Putar untuk Mesin Cnc 4 Axis

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-171
Author(s):  
Hafid Hafid ◽  
Tatang Sutisna
Keyword(s):  
Processing Time ◽  
Rotary Table ◽  
Engineering Process ◽  
Cnc Machine ◽  
Economical Analysis ◽  
Machining Center ◽  
Design And Manufacturing ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Productivity And Competitiveness

The design and manufacturing of the rotary table with the specification Ø 170 mm (6 inches) for CNC machine 4 axis has been done. The objective of manufacturing a rotary table is to increase the efficiency of CNC machine Hardford 4 axis to be above 80% in line machining center CV. IM’s workshop. The engineering methods was taken, consist of: working preparation, manufacturing of working drawing, engineering process, the manufacturing and testing. The prototype has been tested and operated, the resulting of increasing productivity of which were as follows: the process of assembling was increased to be 3 time ( before 1 time) and processing time for a specific case reduced from 5 hours to 3 hours, number of operators for the case of assembling the rotary reduced to 1 person (before 4 persons), safety and security become to be better. The results show increased efficiency of CNC machine Hardford, from under 50% to be above 80%. Based on the economical analysis obtained by the cost of good sold (C.G.S) of the rotary table is IDR 34.060.000. The results presented in this paper is expected to be case study for developing a business of the metal and engineering SMEs domestic to the effort of improving efficiency, quality, productivity and competitiveness in global market.ABSTRAKPerancangan dan pembuatan alat bantu meja putar (rotary table) dengan spesifikasi teknis Ø 170 mm (6 inci) untuk mesin CNC 4 axis telah dilakukan. Tujuan pembuatan rotary table adalah untuk meningkatkan efisiensi mesin CNC Hardford 4 axis di atas 80% pada line machining center Bengkel CV. IM. Metode rancang bangun yang dilakukan, meliputi: persiapan kerja, pembuatan gambar kerja, proses engineering, pembuatan dan uji coba. Prototip tersebut telah diuji coba dan dioperasikan dengan hasil peningkatan produktivitas sebagai berikut: proses pengerjaan bongkar pasang meningkat menjadi 3 kali (sebelumnya 1 kali) dan waktu pengerjaan untuk kasus tertentu berkurang dari 5 jam menjadi 3 jam, jumlah operator untuk kasus bongkar pasang rotary berkurang menjadi 1 orang (sebelumnya 4 orang), keselamatan kerja dan keamanan menjadi lebih baik. Hasil peningkatan berupa efisiensi mesin CNC Hardford 4 axis dari sebelumnya di bawah 50% menjadi di atas 80%. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan analisis ekonomi diperoleh harga pokok produksi (HPP) alat bantu meja putar adalah sebesar Rp. 34.060.000. Bahasan ini diharapkan menjadi contoh kasus bagi pengembangan usaha IKM logam dan mesin dalam negeri untuk meningkatkan efisiensi, mutu, produktivitas dan keunggulan daya saing di pasar global.Kata kunci: alat bantu meja putar, mesin CNC, harga pokok produksi

Case Study—Failure Analysis of a Multiplexer

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Woo ◽  
Marcos Campos ◽  
Luigi Aranda
Keyword(s):  
Failure Analysis ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Component Failure ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
Cause Of Failure ◽  
The Cost

Abstract A component failure has the potential to significantly impact the cost, manufacturing schedule, and/or the perceived reliability of a system, especially if the root cause of the failure is not known. A failure analysis is often key to mitigating the effects of a componentlevel failure to a customer or a system; minimizing schedule slips, minimizing related accrued costs to the customer, and allowing for the completion of the system with confidence that the reliability of the product had not been compromised. This case study will show how a detailed and systemic failure analysis was able to determine the exact cause of failure of a multiplexer in a high-reliability system, which allowed the manufacturer to confidently proceed with production knowing that the failure was not a systemic issue, but rather that it was a random “one time” event.

The Concept of the Optimum Alignment of Discharge Pipelines Due to the Minimization of the Wave Forces

1992 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 211-216
Author(s):  
A. Akyarli ◽  
Y. Arisoy
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Wave Force ◽  
Wave Forces ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Incoming Wave ◽  
Pipeline Route ◽  
Optimum Alignment ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Resultant Wave

As the wave forces are the function of the wave height, period and the angle between the incoming wave direction and the axis of the discharge pipeline, the resultant wave force is directly related to the alignment of the pipeline. In this paper, a method is explained to determine an optimum pipeline route for which the resultant wave force becomes minimum and hence, the cost of the constructive measures may decrease. Also, the application of this method is submitted through a case study.

Neither Victors nor Victims

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Whetham
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Civil Military Relations ◽  
High Street ◽  
National Survival ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Realistic Goal

Between 2007 and 2011, Wootton Bassett, a small Wiltshire town in the UK, became the focus of national attention as its residents responded to the regular repatriations of dead soldiers through its High Street. The town’s response came to symbolize the way that broader attitudes developed and changed over that period. As such, it is a fascinating case study in civil–military relations in the twenty-first century. Success may be the same as victory, but victory, at least as it has been traditionally understood, is not a realistic goal in many types of contemporary conflict. Discretionary wars—conflicts in which national survival is not an issue and even vital national interests may not be at stake—pose particular challenges for any government which does not explain why the cost being paid in blood and treasure is ‘worth it’.

scholarly journals Game-Theoretic Decision Support for Cyber Forensic Investigations

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (16) ◽  
pp. 5300
Author(s):  
Antonia Nisioti ◽  
George Loukas ◽  
Stefan Rass ◽  
Emmanouil Panaousis
Keyword(s):  
Cyber Security ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Bayesian Games ◽  
Bayesian Game ◽  
Cyber Forensics ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
The Cost

The use of anti-forensic techniques is a very common practice that stealthy adversaries may deploy to minimise their traces and make the investigation of an incident harder by evading detection and attribution. In this paper, we study the interaction between a cyber forensic Investigator and a strategic Attacker using a game-theoretic framework. This is based on a Bayesian game of incomplete information played on a multi-host cyber forensics investigation graph of actions traversed by both players. The edges of the graph represent players’ actions across different hosts in a network. In alignment with the concept of Bayesian games, we define two Attacker types to represent their ability of deploying anti-forensic techniques to conceal their activities. In this way, our model allows the Investigator to identify the optimal investigating policy taking into consideration the cost and impact of the available actions, while coping with the uncertainty of the Attacker’s type and strategic decisions. To evaluate our model, we construct a realistic case study based on threat reports and data extracted from the MITRE ATT&CK STIX repository, Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), and interviews with cyber-security practitioners. We use the case study to compare the performance of the proposed method against two other investigative methods and three different types of Attackers.

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