EDF Experience in Integrated Deterministic Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Risk Assessment

Author(s):  
Valentin Rychkov
Author(s):  
Cristian Tudoran

Abstract In the last four decades, as the nuclear industry grew and got mature, the importance of adequate risk evaluating tools became decisive. Therefore, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (also known as Probabilistic Safety Analysis) became a cornerstone of the decisions in such high energy and high-risk industry. PSA has an internationally recognised standard, and it is supported by a group of highly trained experts, (no more than a few hundred worldwide).This work can be used as a guide for the improving the required individual and teamwork skills needed in a Probabilistic Safety Analysis - PSA Team. The necessity of such a moment in a PSA Training was imagined by Dan Serbanescu, doctor in science, nuclear energy expert, risk and safety analyst, in May 2017. After few discussions and according to recognised international standards (Probabilistic Risk Assessment procedures guide, 1983), a first time delivery was possible in the PSA Training delivered in Centrala Nuclearoelectrica Cernavoda / Nuclear Power Plant Cernavoda (2017).This article presents a systematic approach for team improvement skills, consisting of the observation, presentation of the skills required, the skills practised in the proposed exercises, the techniques used during this module (coaching included), and results. The Purpose of the newly proposed combination of training and coaching methods with the specific traditional one oriented mainly to the technical and procedural skills is to raise participants’ awareness about how soft-skills can be used in the PSA Teamwork. As Nuclear Power Plant can be easily compared with a complex organisation, soft skills are vital to be developed within the teams. PSA is becoming more required not only in nuclear but also in the aerospace industry (it was adopted by NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration for all future space program and by some hazardous chemical industries, as also stated in international documents (of the European Commission for instance).


2015 ◽  
Vol 80 ◽  
pp. 409-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Mohamed ◽  
A. Hassan ◽  
R. Yahaya ◽  
I. Rahman ◽  
M. Maskin ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Wei Gao ◽  
Guofeng Tang ◽  
Jingyu Zhang ◽  
Qinfang Zhang

Seismic risk of nuclear power plant has drawn increasing attention after Fukushima accident. An intensive study has been carried out in this paper, including sampling of component and structure fragility based on Monte Carlo method, fragility analysis on system or plant level, convolution of seismic hazard curves and fragility curves. To derive more accurate quantification results, the binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm was introduced into the quantification process, which effectively reduces the deficiency of the conventional method on coping with large probability events and negated logic. Seismic Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA/PRA) quantification software was developed based on algorithms discussed in this paper. Tests and application has been made for this software with a specific nuclear power plant seismic PSA model. The results show that this software is effective on seismic PSA quantification.


Author(s):  
Zacarias Grande Andrade ◽  
Enrique Castillo Ron ◽  
Alan O'Connor ◽  
Maria Nogal

A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of railway lines. The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line, such as light and speed limit signals, tunnel or viaduct entries or exits, cuttings and embankments, acoustic sounds received in the cabin, curves, switches, etc. In addition, since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation, the automatic train protection (ATP) systems and the driver behavior and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors. The nodes of the Bayesian network, their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given. The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas, which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis. A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained, which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially. The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3428


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