SALVADOR IN 1551: A HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF A CITY

2012 ◽  
pp. 465-473
Author(s):  
MARIA ANTONIA LIMA GOMES ◽  
ALFREDO MATTA
Keyword(s):  
Historical Simulation

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI SULAWESI TENGGARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
La Ode Jabuddin ◽  
Ayub M Padangaran ◽  
Azhar Bafadal Bafadal
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Simultaneous Equations ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Direct Expenditure

This study aims to: (1) Knowing the dynamics of fiscal policy and the performance of the agricultural sector, (2) Analyze the factors that influence fiscal policy and the performance                   of the agricultural sector, and (3) Analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector. The data used in this study were pooled 2005-2013 data in the aggregate. Econometric model the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector is built in the form of simultaneous equations, consisting of 7 equations with 25 total variables in the model, 7 endogenous variables, 12 exogenous variables, and 6 variables lag. The model is estimated by 2SLS method SYSLIN procedures and historical simulation with SIMNLIN procedure.The results showed that: (1) The development of fiscal policy in Southeast Sulawesi from year to year tends to increase, (2) The performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect of GDP has decreased, from the aspect of labor is still consistent, in terms of investment to grow positively, and assign roles which means to decrease the number of poor people, (3) factors affecting fiscal policy is local revenues, equalization funds, other revenues, as well as the lag fiscal policy, (4) the factors that affect the performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect GDP is labor, direct expenditure and GDP lag; from the aspect of labor is the total labor force, investment, land area, direct expenditure, as well as the lag of labor; from the aspect of investment is influenced by GDP per capita, land area, interest rates and investment lag; as well as from the aspect of poor people, are affected by population, investments, direct expenditure and poverty lag, (5). Fiscal policy impact on the agricultural sector GDP increase, a decrease in the number of poor, declining agricultural laborers, and a decrease in the amount of investment in the agricultural sector.Keywords: Fiscal policy, the performance of the agricultural sector, the simultaneous equations

scholarly journals Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Ward J. J. van Pelt ◽  
Thomas V. Schuler ◽  
Veijo A. Pohjola ◽  
Rickard Pettersson
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Total Pore Volume ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Accumulation Area Ratio

Abstract Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios.

scholarly journals Methodological features of asymmetric conflicts historical modeling studying

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-218
Author(s):  
Stanislav Gennadyevich Malkin
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
World Order ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
World War ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Asymmetric Conflicts ◽  
The Usa

The following paper deals with methodological features of studying of empires legacy role in policy of the leading powers in the countries of the third world through a prism of asymmetric conflicts historical modeling. The author pays special attention to the role of Great Britain and the USA foreign policy course defining after World War II during Cold War in the second half of the 20th century and Global War on Terror at the beginning of the 21st century. The author pays attention to methodological traps (such as the probability of the research problem on the given variable and terminological confusion) as well as to research opportunities which are opened by such approach in the field of the historical and political analysis (for example, evolution of the international relations theory and practice in the conditions of the world order transformation after World War II). Special attention is given to the value of such methodological reception as asymmetric conflicts historical modeling in expert estimates of the leading powers foreign policy. The paper also deals with the role of expert community and academic expertize as an important component of that analytical operation which is carried out within historical simulation of the asymmetrical conflicts.

scholarly journals EVALUATING MEASURES OF MARKET RISK IN CIRCUMSTANCES OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM FIVE COUNTRIES

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 75-81
Author(s):  
Ivica Terzić ◽  
Marko Milojević
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Independence Properties ◽  
Window Approach ◽  
Metrics Model

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate performance of value-at-risk (VaR) produced by two risk models: historical simulation and Risk Metrics. We perform three backtest: unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage. We present results on both VaR 1% and VaR 5% on a one-day horizon for the following indices: S&P 500, DAX, SAX, PX and Belex 15. Our results show that Historical simulation 500 days rolling window approach satisfies unconditional coverage for all tested indices, while Risk Metrics has many rejection cases. On the other hand Risk Metrics model satisfies independence backtest for three indices, while Historical simulation has rejected more times. Based on our strong criteria to accept accuracy of VaR models only if both unconditional coverage and independence properties are satisfied, results indicate that during the crisis period all tested VaR models underestimate the true level of market risk exposure.

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