BUBBLES AND ANTI-BUBBLES IN LATIN-AMERICAN, ASIAN AND WESTERN STOCK MARKETS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

2001 ◽  
Vol 04 (06) ◽  
pp. 853-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDERS JOHANSEN ◽  
DIDIER SORNETTE
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Specific Power ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Geometric Patterns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Expectation Model ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Exchange Markets

Twenty-one significant bubbles followed by large crashes or severe corrections in Latin-American and Asian stock markets are identified. We find that, with very few exceptions, these speculative bubbles can be quantitatively described by a rational expectation model of bubbles predicting a specific power law acceleration as well as so-called log-periodic geometric patterns. This model considerably extends the applicability of the rational expectation model of bubbles followed by crashes or severe corrections previously proposed for the major financial markets in the world, i.e. the USA and the foreign exchange markets. A comparison of the model predictions using the price and the logarithm of the price, respectively, furthermore indicates according to our model that such large downward movements in the markets are nothing but depletions of the preceding bubble thus bringing the market back towards equilibrium. In addition, a set of secondary stock markets are also shown to exhibit well-correlated "anti-bubbles" triggered by a rash of crises on emerging markets in early 1994. This suggests that smaller stock markets can weakly synchronize not only because of the over-arching influence of the US market, but also independent of the US market due to external factors such as the Asian crisis of 1994.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Stock Return Transmission in North and Latin America

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Other ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Standard Vector

This study empirically examines the return transmission effects between the four North and Latin American stock markets in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. More specifically, applying a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, we obtain the following interesting findings. First, (1) the return transmission effects between the four North and Latin American stock markets became much tighter in our second subsample period. Second, (2) in particular, US and Mexican stock markets are strong return transmitters in the recent period. Furthermore, (3) both in our first and second subsample periods, Brazilian stock returns do not transmit to the other three stock returns, although the other three North and Latin American stock markets affect the Brazilian stock market.

Brazil in the Context of the Commercial War Between USA and China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Maria de Fatima Silva do Carmo Previdelli ◽  
Luiz Eduardo Simoes de Souza ◽  
Rodolfo Francisco Soares Nunes
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
American Continent ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Since the start of the commercial war between the USA and China in 2018, Brazil has changed many of its previous alliances in order to become the interest representative of the USA in Latin America. After the coup d’état of 2016, Brazil has taken progressive actions in order to distance itself from the previous partners at BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to get closer to the USA. The arrival of the new Brazilian president in 2019, a declared representative of US interests in the Latin American continent, has increased the pace of such measures. This article aims to explain the main actions taken by the USA and China in that context and how Brazil has adapted to take sides in that scenario, moving away from the BRICS group (now RICS since the B stands for Brazil) and toward the US foreign and economic policies.

Intensity of shock transmission amid US-BRICS markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Lakshmi ◽  
S. Visalakshmi ◽  
Kavitha Shanmugam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the intensity of transmission of shocks from USA to BRICS countries in the long-run and short-run deviations and swiftness of recovery during US subprime mortgage crisis. This analysis enables the authors to explore the evolving patterns of relationships between these markets and examine whether their co-movements altered either in response to international shocks that originated in advanced markets like USA or due to their domestic fluctuations. Design/methodology/approach – Employing data of daily stock market indices (open and close) of BRICS countries for the period January 2, 2001 to May 31, 2012, this paper examines the interactions and characteristics of price movements of BRICS with US market by applying co-integration tests, vector error correction model and Granger causality relationship. The daily stock market indices data are derived from respective stock exchange web sites. Findings – The results exhibit that both long-run co-integration relationships and short-run Granger causality relationships exist between the stock markets of US-BRICS. Furthermore, this nexus is amplified in the short-run during 2007-2009, when the subprime mortgage financial crisis in the USA cropped up. This finding lends support to the prominence of developed (US) market links in the proliferation of persistent co-movements of BRICS stock markets. Research limitations/implications – The findings imply an increasing degree of global market integration due to quick dissemination of global shocks originating from developed market like USA, and swift recovery which can be attributed to the increased resilience, consistent with the moderated level of domestically driven risk in the BRICS markets. In spite of their similarities, long-run and short-run interdependences with the US stock market exhibit differences among the BRICS. This can be attributed to the regional heterogeneity in long-run risk and return co-movements with the USA. Practical implications – Changes from the US index easily affect these stock markets in the short-run, which implies that the US index may act as a leading indicator for investing funds in BRICS markets. Originality/value – This study would enable the authors to understand whether BRICS economies actually remain resilient to adverse developments in USA and could serve as alternative investment destinations for global portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals The effects of volatility and changes in conditional correlations in the stock markets of Russia and developed countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (227) ◽  
pp. 67-94
Author(s):  
Oleg Salmanov ◽  
Natalia Babina ◽  
Marina Samoshkina ◽  
Irina Drachena ◽  
Irina Salmanova
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
International Portfolios ◽  
Russian Stock Market ◽  
The Uk

The aim of this article is to identify patterns of profitability volatility and to establish the degree of dynamic conditional correlation between the stock markets of developed countries and those of Russia. This issue is important for investment strategies and the international diversification of investments. We use the BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, and DCCGARCH models and show that the correlation between the Russian stock market and the markets of the USA, UK, Germany, and France has decreased significantly in recent years. We find that while the correlation between the Russian market and the mature European markets is bidirectional, the relationship between the US market and the Russian market is unidirectional. An assessment of the transfer of volatility from all of the mature markets to the Russian market establishes its statistical significance and shows that feedback from the Russian market to the UK and German markets is insignificant. Diversification of international portfolios in the Russian market is recommended.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL CONTAGION BETWEEN THE US AND EMERGING MARKETS: COVID-19 PANDEMIC CASE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Heliodoro ◽  
◽  
Rui Dias ◽  
Paulo Alexandre ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Us ◽  
Bds Test

To realise how crises are disseminated is relevant for policy makers and regulators in order to take appropriate measures to prevent or contain the propagation of crises. This study aims to analysis the financial contagion in the six main markets of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) and the USA, in the period 2015-2020. Different approaches have been undertaken to carry out this analysis in order to consider the following research question, namely whether: (i) the global pandemic covid19 has accentuated the contagion between Latin American financial markets and the US? The results of the autocorrelation tests are totally coincident with those obtained by the BDS test. The rejection of the null hypothesis, i.i.d., can be explained, among other factors, by the existence of autocorrelation or by the existence of heteroscedasticity in the stock market index series, in which case the rejection of the null hypothesis is explained by non-linear dependence on data, with the exception of the Argentine market. However, significant levels of contagion were expected to occur between these regional markets and the US as a result of the global pandemic (Covid-19), which did not happen. These results may indicate the implementation of efficient diversification strategies. The authors consider that the results achieved are relevance for investors who seek opportunities in these stock markets, as well as for policy makers to carry out institutional reforms in order to increase the efficiency of stock markets and promote the sustainable growth of financial markets.

scholarly journals Dame Edna and ‘the help’

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 152-172
Author(s):  
Adrian Hale
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Speech Community ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Language Competence ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Latin American Immigrants

‘Dame Edna Everage’, a persona originally created by the Australian comedian Barry Humphries in 1955, is a character designed to simultaneously shock and amuse. Dame Edna voices (and satirizes) the discourse of ‘average’, older, politically conservative Anglo-Australians who feel compelled to ‘tell it like it is’ – no matter how offensive their opinions might be. In the Anglosphere, Edna’s humour is well understood and sustained international success has followed Edna for more than 60 years in Britain, Canada, the US and Australia. However, Edna occasionally misfires. In 2003, for instance, Edna’s satire outraged Latinos across the USA, in fulfillment of Poe’s Law (Aikin, 2009). Simply put, Latinos assumed that Edna’s comments satirising negative mainstream attitudes towards them were expressive of Edna’s authentic racism. This paper investigates the Edna joke in the overall context of failed humour and then specifically for the offensiveness it generated amongst the Latino minority in the United States. It then tests whether this reaction was the result of a discursive frame specific to the US context, by conducting an exploratory study amongst a small sample of highly educated Australian bilingual Latin American immigrants and their adult children, to see whether they thought Edna’s joke was funny. These Australian individuals of Latin American heritage responded via an online questionnaire, and an analysis of their responses is presented here. The study’s main finding is that while these individuals generally demonstrated a high comedic literacy across both English and Spanish, including a prior awareness of Edna’s and Australian humour, they overall rejected the intention and humour of Edna’s joke. This paper asserts that, when it comes to humour, some transnational migrant speech community loyalties transcend other notions of identity and language competence.

scholarly journals International terrorism and Latin America

2002 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 73-98
Author(s):  
Rozita Levi ◽  
Slobodan Pajovic
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Historical Overview ◽  
American Continent ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Latin American Countries

The authors give a historical overview of the origin and development of terrorism in Latin America describing the forms in which it appears in this region of the world (political, military, state and narco terrorism). They also explore to what degree the attacks on the USA launched on 11 September 2001 will affect the governments of Latin American countries to harmonize their positions with those of the US government in taking joint actions in their combat to eliminate terrorist activities on the American continent.

scholarly journals What Drives Stocks during the Corona-Crash? News Attention vs. Rational Expectation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Engelhardt ◽  
Miguel Krause ◽  
Daniel Neukirchen ◽  
Peter Posch
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
The Us

We explore if the corona-crash 2020 was driven by news attention or rational expectations about the pandemic’s economic impact. Using a sample of 64 national stock markets covering 94% of the world’s GDP, we find the stock markets’ decline to be mainly associated with higher news attention and less with rational expectation. We estimate the economic cost from the news hype to amount to USD 3.5 trillion for the US and USD 200 billion on average for the rest of the G8 countries.

scholarly journals Changes in stock markets interdependencies as a result of the global financial crisis: Empirical investigation on the CEE region

2011 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristiana Tudor
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Indexes ◽  
European Stock Markets

This paper investigates causal relationships and short-term interaction mechanisms among six Central and Eastern European stock markets and the USA stock exchange, while paying special consideration to the effects of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. We employ daily observations for the six CEE stock indexes and also for the US market covering the period January 2006-March 2009, which is subsequently divided into two sub-periods corresponding to the pre-crisis and crisis period. The study reveals that the relationships among CEE stock markets are time varying. While before the crisis stock market linkages are limited, we find that during crisis these interactions become significantly stronger. Our results further suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in different CEE markets is limited during financial turmoil. Other findings reveal the leading role of the Russian market in the CEE region before the crisis. Also, before the crisis CEE markets were significantly influenced by innovations in the USA market, thus explaining why they were affected heavily by the crisis, which has managed to spread immediately in the region.

scholarly journals The Situation of Latinos in the United States During D. Trump’s Presidency: Overview of Political Transformations’ Issues in the Publications of American Authors for 2018–2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 249-263
Author(s):  
Ilya Sokov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Usa ◽  
American Society ◽  
American Authors

Introduction. The overview’s subject is the problem of Latin Americans’ situation (citizens and noncitizens of the USA) during the D. Trump’s presidency, reflected in new works by American authors. The historiography overview consist of researchers’ monographs from American universities and analytical articles from academic journals and periodicals. The overview’s logical systematization is based on two principles: the established chronological framework and the grouping of author’s views on a particular problem. Relevance. The overview topic’s relevance is caused by significant reduction in the rights and increased prosecution of Latinos in the contemporary of the United States which is emphasized by the American authors themselves. The authors emphasized the theoretical basis for the new migration political process was making D. Trump’s conservative nationalist policy which is called “America First”. The implementation of such policy leads to new challenges in ensuring national security, exacerbating social conflicts and splitting the American society. Purpose. The work’s purpose is to highlight new trends in the US immigration policy that significantly restricted the rights and freedoms of Latin American citizens and Latin American refugees living in the country during this period. Methods. The author of the article used the following methodological tools: the scientific principle of objectivity, which allowed us to assess the degree of subjective information contained in the publications; the ontological (substantive) approach, which was used to clarify the actors of conflict interaction in the process of the White House’s transformational policy presented in new American studies; the institutional method based on the research works, which allowed us to determine changes in the functions and activities of the US government’s departments when dealing with immigration issues and the situation of Latin American citizens and non-citizens in the United States during the D. Trump’s presidency. Results. The results consist in the recognition of the nativist and conservative nationalist policy of the US government towards Latin Americans by the American academic and expert community, which contradicts the values declared by the American society and contributes to its separation and division creating greater inequality within it. Although the historiography overview did not aim to examine Latinos’ situation in the United States in historical retrospect. All of these could be noted in the above works that no American author noted an improvement in the situation of Latinos during D. Trump’s presidency, compared to the previous administrations of B. Clinton, G.W. Bush and B. Obama. Many authors noted that new problems have been added to the old problems of Latinos and incoming immigrants. The results area. The results obtained can be used by Russian Americanist researchers to conduct their further researches in the fields of area studies, international relations, international processes, and the history of foreign countries. Conclusion. The Latinos’ situation analysis in the United States during the D. Trump’s presidency was based on American authors’ publications for 2018–2020, which suggests not only the devastating impact of the White House’s transformative policies toward Latinos, but also the changing structure of American society itself, which is inherently immigrant.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document