Liquidity and Profitability: A Co-Integration Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (02) ◽  
pp. 1850011
Author(s):  
Khairul Alom
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper examines the relationship between liquidity and profitability of the non-financial firms listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) for the period of 1998–2013. Pedroni and Johansen co-integration results show that liquidity, profitability, firm size and long-term debt (LTD) have significant co-integration relationship in the long run. The causality test results expose that a strong bidirectional casual relationship exist among the variables of liquidity and profitability, LTD and liquidity profitability and firm size in the short run. Also, there exists unidirectional causality among the variables of firm size and liquidity, profitability and LTD in the short run. Furthermore, Pooled Mean Group results show that profitability, firm size and LTD have long-run co-integration relationship with liquidity. However, in the short run, profitability and LTD significantly contribute to the liquidity and the error correction mechanism shows that speed of adjustment to equilibrium is significant within the year. Impulse response analysis indicates shocks in the firm size, LTD and profitability have positive and significant impact on liquidity.

scholarly journals The impact of Indonesian oil price (CPI) and macroeconomics on investments in the manufacturing sector in Indonesia

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Handri Handri ◽  
Hendrati Dwi Mulyaningsih ◽  
Achmad Kemal Hidayat ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan ◽  
Ani Wahyu Rachmawati
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: Indonesia consumes oil as the main energy source in the production process and as a result of the development of the manufacturing industry. Thus, investment in manufacturing stocks will be affected by oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions. Changes in oil prices will affect the performance of the manufacturing sector which in turn affects manufacturing stock prices. This paper aims to examine the impact of Indonesia's oil price shocks and macroeconomic factors on stock price movements in the manufacturing sector. Methods: This study uses monthly data for the 2009-2016 period in the manufacturing sector, and 67 stocks were selected on the basis consistently available in the period of the research. The cointegration and causality technique was used in this paper; firstly we applied a unit-panel root test, Secondly, we performed a residual test to indicate whether there was cointegration among variables in the long run equilibrium, and short the short run, we used a Granger causality test. Results: The panel unit root test (both Shin and Fisher) and the Pedroni cointegration residual test show that the data is stationary at 1%  level of significance, thus all variables simultaneously achieve long-run equilibrium, and in the short run, the Granger causality test shows that there is one way direction causality Conclusions: For long-term investment in manufacturing stocks, investors must consider the exchange rate, as it is also as a determining factor in influencing the movement of manufacturing stock prices, inflation, and the production index. Meanwhile, weakening of the rupiah in the short run will also determine investment conditions due to the dependency on raw materials for production from foreign sources. The price of oil as an energy source in the manufacturing sector does not have a long-term relationship with other variables.

scholarly journals Stock market development and investment growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 99-117
Author(s):  
Idowu Daniel Onisanwa ◽  
◽  
Mercy Ojochegbe Adaji ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Turnover Ratio ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Market Capitalisation ◽  
Investment Growth

Aim/purpose – The poor investment climate is one of the reasons advanced for the slow pace of growth in Nigeria; evidenced by the absence or inadequate amount of investible funds in the productive sectors. While the money market in Nigeria provides very limited investment options, the underdevelopment and underutilisation of the Nigerian Stock Market constitute a drawback to the investment climate. However, any economy desiring sustainable development requires a long-term source of fund. Therefore, this study ascertains the perfor-mance of the stock market and investment growth nexus in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on the neoclassical growth theory with a slight modification in the wake of Levine’s specification (2003), an augmented investment growth relationship was specified. This study utilises the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) in establishing the co-integration relation between stock market development and investment growth. Gross capital formation was used as a proxy for investment growth while the stock market indicators are market capitalisation ratio, total value traded ratio and turnover ratio. The study utilises data covering 1981 to 2018, sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange annual reports and diverse publication of the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics.Findings – The market capitalisation ratio had a negative impact on gross capital for-mation both in the short run and the long run, but its significance is only evident in the short run. The turnover ratio had a negative and significant impact on investment growth. The total value traded ratio exerted a positive and significant impact on gross capital formation both in the short run and the long run. The coefficient of the error cor-rection term was negative and statistically significant. Research implications/limitations – The total value traded ratio enhanced investment growth in Nigeria. Both market capitalisation and turnover ratio dampen investment growth. The Stock Exchange is not efficient and does not possess the amount of liquidity required to finance long term investment need in Nigeria. Emphasis on measures geared towards increasing efficiency and liquidity should be intensified by the government. Mean-while, the sectorial analysis of the impact of stock exchange movements in Nigeria and the use of other estimation techniques may create room for more robust relationships.Originality/value/contribution – The study directly investigates the capability of the Nigerian stock market in driving investment, both in the short and long run.

scholarly journals An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
Samuel Asuamah Yeboah ◽  
◽  
Boateng Kwadwo Prempeh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Predictive Test ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

Volatility in frontier markets: a Multivariate GARCH analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-312
Author(s):  
Neha Seth ◽  
Monica Singhania
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the existence of volatility spillover effect in frontier markets. This study also examines whether any linkages exist among these markets or not. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data of regional frontier markets, from 2009 to 2016, are analyzed using Multivariate GARCH (BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC)) models. Findings The result of cointegration test shows that the sample frontier markets are not linked in long run, and Granger causality test reveals that the markets under consideration do not cause each other even in the short run. BEKK test says that the effect of the arrival of shock from the own market does not last for longer, whereas shock from other markets lasts with the stronger persistence, and according to DCC test, the volatility spillover exists for all the markets. Practical implications The results of present study suggest that the frontier markets are not cointegrated in the long run as well as in the short run, which opens the doors for long-term investments in these markets in future, which may lead to decent returns. Long-term investors may draw the benefits from including the financial assets in their portfolios from these non-integrated frontier markets; nevertheless, they have to consider and implement diversification and hedging strategies during the period of financial turmoil, so as to protect themselves against economic and financial distress. Originality/value Significant work has been done on developed, developing and emerging markets but frontier markets are not explored much so far. This paper is an attempt to see the status of frontier stock markets as potential financial markets for diversification benefits.

Do ‘Shariah’ indices surpass conventional indices? A study on Dhaka Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Bokhtiar Hasan Aarif ◽  
Muhammad Rafiqul Islam Rafiq ◽  
Abu N.M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Two Indices

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether the Sharīʿah indices outperform the conventional indices as evident from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). To achieve the objective, the study, first, assesses the risk adjusted returns of the Sharīʿah and conventional indices and compares the same between the two indices. Second, it examines the short-run and long-run associations between the two indices. Design/methodology/approach The DSEX Sharīʿah index and DSE broad index of the DSE are used as representatives of the Sharīʿah and conventional indices, respectively. The study uses monthly data for the period 2014–2018 and applies a number of techniques such as risk adjusted returns, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response functions techniques. Findings The study reveals that albeit there is no significant difference in simple mean between the two indices, the Sharīʿah index outperforms its conventional counterpart based on the risk adjusted returns. The two indices are associated only in the long-run, while no causal relationship is spotted between them. The overall results show that the Sharīʿah index has dominance over the conventional index in Bangladesh. Research limitations/implications The study could use more pairs of indices, including additional variables such as financial crisis and macroeconomic variables. Practical implications The study has important implications to investors, especially the religious Muslims and ethical ones, who are suggested to invest their funds in the Sharīʿah index without sacrificing returns, rather be monetarily more benefited. Moreover, the other investors can generate diversification benefits by adding both Sharīʿah and conventional indices in their portfolios in the short-run. Originality/value Unlike previous studies, this study endeavors to use a comprehensive methodology to conduct its analysis. Moreover, this is supposedly the first ever effort to conduct such a study in the context of Bangladesh.

scholarly journals IPO Intra Industry Effects on Peer Firm's Earnings, Composition and Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irfan Khadim ◽  
Samreen Fahim Babar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Industry Effects ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study is conducted to see how an IPO event affects the existing firm's performance within the same industry. For this purpose, 88 IPO firms were examined from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from 1998-2016. IPO is examined from three major perspectives IPO proceeds, initial returns and time Lag between IPO listing date and IPO subscription. The study uses Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) to calculate competitor's abnormal returns. To calculate the operating performance of competitors, the Wilcoxon significance test was applied. IPO intra-industry effects are significant in the long run, whereas insignificant results are shown in the short run. In addition, IPO proceeds and abnormal returns are significant but negatively related to competitors' stock returns (long term). Moreover, Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) finds IPO improves competitiveness in the industry environment. This present study is an important one from an emerging economy perspective.

scholarly journals International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Teguh Sugiarto ◽  
Ludiro Madu ◽  
Ahmad Subagyo ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARY More recently, significant fluctuations in the Indonesian economy justify the need to pay more attention to this issue. In this case, the main purpose of this research is to know the relationship between two issues related to Indonesian macro economy called consumption and GDP for data period during 1967 until 2014. This study investigates the relationship between GDP variables and Indonesian consumption consumption variables using the test ARDL, cointegration and Granger causality. The result of the research can be concluded that, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption with long-term ARDL model, 10% change of consumption will produce long-term change of 44% in GDP. It is not surprising that there is no short-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption. 10% of consumption will result in a short-term ARDL model change of 95% in GDP. The variables and consumption of GDP are cointegrated in the long run significantly at lag interval 10, whereas the use of lag interval 1 and 5 is not credited in the long run. Using a cointegration test with lag interval 1, 5 and 10 indicates significant for all usage slowness. So it can be summarized in the context of GDP and coordinated short-term economic consumption for all the prevailing interval lags. concluded that long-term causality test results between GDP variables and significant consumption with time intervals 5 and 10. intervals 1, 15 and 20 have no long-term causality relationship between GDP variables and consumption variables. a short-term causal model. With lagging intervals of 1, 5, 10 and 15, there is a short-term causal relationship between the variable GDP and consumption. As for the use of delay interval 20 there is no causal relationship in the short term between the variable GDP and consumption in Indonesia.

Inflation and Stock Returns: Implication for Nigerian Stock Exchange Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bidemi S. Adegboyega
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Convergence To Equilibrium ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Analytical Technique ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Understanding various hypotheses often dictates the nexus between inflation and stock returns and over the years studies have failed to establish which among these hypotheses are examined in Nigeria. Therefore, this present study examines the long-run relationships and dynamic interactions between stock returns and inflation in Nigeria using quarterly data of the All Share Price Index from the Nigerian Stock Exchange and Inflation rate together with other selected macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, exchange rate and growth in real GDP from 1985Q1 to 2018Q4. The analytical technique of Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Co-integration technique and Granger Causality test were exploited. From the results, it is evident there exists a long run relationship between stock returns and inflation in Nigeria. The short run dynamic model also revealed that the speed of convergence to equilibrium is moderate implying that there is a short run relationship between stock returns and inflation. However, in order to establish the causal links and its directions between inflation rate and stock returns, the Johansen co-integration shows that there exist a unidirectional relationship between stock return and inflation rate. This is attributable perhaps to the instability of prices of stocks noticed over time and also the study supported the Proxy hypothesis. Based on the above, it is a perfect avenue for investors to use in an attempt to hedge against inflation.

Nexus Between Discount Rate and Industrial Performance

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110287
Author(s):  
Ajab Khan
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Industrial Performance ◽  
Long Term Performance ◽  
Term Performance

This study investigates the short-run responses and long-run performances of seven industries’ stock indices with discount rate changes in the firms listed in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE) between 2009 and 2018. The results indicate that short-run returns react positively to discount rate reduction, excluding the oil industry and vice versa. Therefore, long-term performance responds favourably with a reduction in the discount rate. Discount rate changes affect the apparel industry the most, while the oil industry is the least on the list. This study serves potential investors for their returns against investment among these industries. Furthermore, it works as a guideline for regulators and policymakers to manage fluctuations for a stable capital market.

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