MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-101
Author(s):  
OSAMA A. B. HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

This article attempts to adapt the Monte Carlo method to the quantitative risk management of environmental pollution. In this context, the feasibility of stochastic models to quantitatively evaluate the risk of chemical pollution is first discussed and then linked to a case study in which Monte Carlo simulations are applied. The objective of the case study is to develop a Monte Carlo scheme for evaluating the pollution in a lake environment. It is shown that the results can be of interest as they define the risk margins that are important to the sustainability of the ecosystem in general, and human health in particular. Moreover, assessing the environmental pollution with the help of the Monte Carlo method can be feasible and serve the purpose of investigating and controlling the environmental pollution, in the long and short terms.

Spreading Characteristics of Molecularly Thin Lubricant on Surfaces With Groove-Shaped Textures: Effects of Molecular Weight and End-Group Functionality

2003 ◽  
Vol 125 (2) ◽  
pp. 350-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hedong Zhang ◽  
Yasunaga Mitsuya ◽  
Maiko Yamada
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Weight ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Ising Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Solid Surfaces ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
End Groups ◽  
End Group

Effects of molecular weight and end-group functionality on spreading of molecularly thin perfluoropolyether (PFPE) film over solid surfaces with groove-shaped textures have been studied by experiments and Monte Carlo simulations. In the experiments, lubricant spreading on a surface with groove-shaped textures was measured by making use of the phenomenon in which diffracted light weakens in the lubricant-covered region. It is found that grooves serve to accelerate spreading and this effect increases for deeper grooves, and also the accelerating rate becomes larger for a lubricant having a larger molecular weight or functional end-groups. In the simulations, the Monte Carlo method based on the Ising model was extended to enable us to evaluate the effect of molecular weight on the spreading of non-functional lubricant inside a groove. The validity of the newly developed simulation method was well confirmed from the agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

scholarly journals Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Baumgertel ◽  
Nada Dragovic ◽  
Tijana Vulevic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flow Profile ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relevant Variables

Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.

scholarly journals Prediction Of Amount Of Use Of Planning Family Contraception Equipment Using Monte Carlo Method (Case Study In Linggo Sari Baganti District)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rani Yunima Astia ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Sumijan Sumijan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Married Couple ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Numerical Analysis Method ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Family planning aims to minimize birth rates in Indonesia. To conduct socialization, it is carried out to existing fertile couples. Pus is a married couple whose wife is in the range of 15-49 years. Contraception itself consists of 2 periods, namely short and long. Where the pus can choose according to what they want, therefore there is often a lack of stock. Thus it is necessary to predict how many contraceptives are used with a method to be more efficient. The Monte Carlo method is used which is a numerical analysis method that involves a sample of random numbers. Where to use the previous year's data to get the predicted results of the next year in the form of numbers. After passing the simulation series the percentage results have been obtained with an average of over 80%.

scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT FOR VIOLATION OF ANTI-TRUST LEGISLATION BY STATE EXECUTIVE AUTHORITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-401
Author(s):  
A. B. Androsova ◽  
O. N. Orlova ◽  
S. D. Furta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Bow Tie

The article deals with a problem of building an anti-trust compliance system in state executive authorities from the point of view of contemporary risk management. The authors expound a well-known instrument based on the bow-tie diagram construction which successfully helps to develop effective measures to prevent violation of anti-trust legislation cases by state executive authorities. They also give some numeric results of statistical modelling of anti-trust legislation violation risks by state executive authorities by means of the Monte-Carlo method.

scholarly journals Evaluation of costs and reworks in the tires recovery process by the Monte Carlo Method: case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2925-2942
Author(s):  
Fernando Ailton Castellani de Oliveira ◽  
Nilson Brandalise
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Productive Process ◽  
Quality Tools

Companies are increasingly seeking methods to eliminate costs, and one of the big problems in companies is rework. The objective of this study was to identify costs and rework through the application of quality tools, allied to the Monte Carlo method (MMC), comprising the productive process of tire retreading, through an exploratory study. The applied methodology was in a tire retreading industry, located in the southern Fluminense region, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. One can conclude from the use of quality tools that the main failures within the process were the vulcanization, bonding and scarification / repair and also analyze by the Monte Carlo method the costs presented in the tire reform process through 5000 interactions. Through the tools, we can quantify the failures occurred in each stage. The main contribution of this work is the identification of the costs caused by the rework in the tires of automobiles and of load.

Entropy and Pressure of Attractive Hard Squares by the Monte Carlo Method

1997 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 571-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo A. Sauerwein ◽  
Mário J. De Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Numerical Integration ◽  
Transfer Matrix ◽  
Thermodynamic Integration ◽  
Direct Approach ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Hard Squares

The pressure and entropy of hard squares with attractive interactions are calculated from Monte Carlo simulations by an approach that avoids the numerical integration along a path in the thermodynamic space. The approach is useful whenever we are faced to a model that can be written in terms of a transfer matrix. The results coming from this direct approach are compared with those obtained from numerical thermodynamic integration.

Stochastic models based on the Monte Carlo method for the hydrolysis of oligogalacturonates and polygalacturonates by endopolygalacturonases and exopolygalacturonases

2017 ◽  
Vol 322 ◽  
pp. 417-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aline Bescrovaine Pereira ◽  
Larissa Madureira Pacholak do Espírito Santo ◽  
Wellington Balmant ◽  
Ivo Nietzel ◽  
Nadia Krieger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Hydrolysis Of
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