scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT FOR VIOLATION OF ANTI-TRUST LEGISLATION BY STATE EXECUTIVE AUTHORITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-401
Author(s):  
A. B. Androsova ◽  
O. N. Orlova ◽  
S. D. Furta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Bow Tie

The article deals with a problem of building an anti-trust compliance system in state executive authorities from the point of view of contemporary risk management. The authors expound a well-known instrument based on the bow-tie diagram construction which successfully helps to develop effective measures to prevent violation of anti-trust legislation cases by state executive authorities. They also give some numeric results of statistical modelling of anti-trust legislation violation risks by state executive authorities by means of the Monte-Carlo method.

THE MONTE CARLO METHOD AS A RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL IN THE FORMATION OF A STOCK PORTFOLIO IN A CRISIS SITUATION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Екатерина Андреевна Винниченко ◽  
Светлана Валентиновна Пупенцова
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Stock Portfolio

В работе разработан алгоритм применения метода имитационного моделирования при оценке эффективности финансовых инвестиций на примере оценки корпоративных облигаций в кризисной ситуации. Авторы рассчитали доходность к погашению корпоративных облигаций в период кризиса 2020 года и подготовили рекомендации по выбору наиболее привлекательных ценных бумаг для инвестора. In this paper, we have developed an algorithm for applying the simulation method to evaluate the effectiveness of financial investments on the example of evaluating corporate bonds in a crisis situation. The authors calculated the yield to maturity of corporate bonds during the crisis in 2020 and prepared recommendations for choosing the most attractive securities for investors.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-101
Author(s):  
OSAMA A. B. HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

This article attempts to adapt the Monte Carlo method to the quantitative risk management of environmental pollution. In this context, the feasibility of stochastic models to quantitatively evaluate the risk of chemical pollution is first discussed and then linked to a case study in which Monte Carlo simulations are applied. The objective of the case study is to develop a Monte Carlo scheme for evaluating the pollution in a lake environment. It is shown that the results can be of interest as they define the risk margins that are important to the sustainability of the ecosystem in general, and human health in particular. Moreover, assessing the environmental pollution with the help of the Monte Carlo method can be feasible and serve the purpose of investigating and controlling the environmental pollution, in the long and short terms.

scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT WITH THE USE OF THE MONTE-CARLO METHOD

2019 ◽  
Vol 0 (6(84)) ◽  
pp. 16-26
Author(s):  
L. V. Amelina ◽  
M. M. Biliaiev ◽  
O. V. Berlov ◽  
L. A. Cherednychenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

scholarly journals Risk Assessment Models to Improve Environmental Safety in the Field of the Economy and Organization of Construction: A Case Study of Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13539
Author(s):  
Arkadiy Larionov ◽  
Ekaterina Nezhnikova ◽  
Elena Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Future

This article assesses risks in order to substantiate the economic and organizational efficiency of housing and industrial construction. This topic is relevant because it is necessary for sustainable development. In Russia, environmental safety in construction and housing, as well as communal services, is poorly developed and not regulated by the legal system. As building construction, housing, and communal services should be based on environmental safety, this topic requires rapid development. Methods related to quantifying environmental risk and making decisions under conditions of uncertainty were studied. A quantitative risk assessment was performed using the Monte Carlo method for pessimistic and optimistic options to prevent environmental damage. The model reproduced the distribution derived from the evidence-based fit. The results of sensitivity analysis are also presented to prove the hypothesis. The selection of the most appropriate probability density functions for each of the input quantities was implemented through settings in a computer program. The simulation modeling results clearly illustrate the choice of the general principle of assessment and the adoption of the optimal decision. In conditions of uncertainty, the decision to choose the optimistic options with high cost (to maintain the reliability of the technical system) but less risk plays a decisive role in the future environmental safety strategies of construction projects. The Monte Carlo method is preferable for environmental impact assessments. In the future, the amended methodology can be applied to raise environmental safety in the field of construction.

scholarly journals Improving the assessment of the environmental and economic efficiency of measures

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Inna P. Bandurinа ◽  
Mikhail A. Bandurin ◽  
Alexander P. Bandurin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The purpose of the study is to improve methods for improving the regulatory and methodological framework for assessing the environmental and economic effectiveness of land reclamation investment projects. The research methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method, which corresponds to international standards, the theory and algorithms of innovative methods for determining risks, as well as the ability to provide the user with information about the content of risk assessment operations and ensure that their preferences are taken into account in the calculation process. Currently, many tools have been developed for automating risk analysis procedures, including those performed by the Monte Carlo method, which are described in various studies with varying degrees of completeness. The analysis of priority methods of assessing the risks of achieving the projected economic indicators of project solutions is performed and the prospects of the simulation method for practical use in the field of land reclamation are shown. The results of the risk assessment of environmental and economic efficiency of anti-filtration coatings of hydraulic structures of irrigation systems performed by the Monte Carlo method in the environment of the Crystal Ball software product are presented, and the need to improve the reliability of the predicted results of the effectiveness of the designed measures is established. Future research is risk assessment of profitability of the designed activities promote the development of existing and formation of new theories to justify the feasibility of implementation of reclamation investment projects.

scholarly journals Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Baumgertel ◽  
Nada Dragovic ◽  
Tijana Vulevic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flow Profile ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relevant Variables

Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.

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