GP VERSUS GLS SPATIAL INDEX MODELS TO FORECAST SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES

2008 ◽  
Vol 04 (02) ◽  
pp. 143-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAK KABOUDAN

This paper investigates use of genetic programming regression models to forecast home values. Neighborhood prices in a city are represented by a quarterly index. Index values are ratios of each local neighborhood to the global city average real price of homes sold. Relative average neighborhood home attributes, local socioeconomic characteristics, spatial measures, and real mortgage rates explain spatiotemporal variations in the index. To examine efficacy of model estimation, forecasts obtained using genetic programming are compared with those obtained using generalized least squares. Out-of-sample genetic programming predictions of home prices obtained using spatial index models deliver reasonable forecasts of home prices.

Author(s):  
M. Kaboudan

This chapter compares forecasts of the median neighborhood prices of residential single-family homes in Cambridge, Massachusetts, using parametric and nonparametric techniques. Prices are measured over time (annually) and over space (by neighborhood). Modeling variables characterized by space and time dynamics is challenging. Multi-dimensional complexities—due to specification, aggregation, and measurement errors—thwart use of parametric modeling, and nonparametric computational techniques (specifically genetic programming and neural networks) may have the advantage. To demonstrate their efficacy, forecasts of the median prices are first obtained using a standard statistical method: weighted least squares. Genetic programming and neural networks are then used to produce two other forecasts. Variables used in modeling neighborhood median home prices include economic variables such as neighborhood median income and mortgage rate, as well as spatial variables that quantify location. Two years’ out-of-sample forecasts comparisons of median prices suggest that genetic programming may have the edge.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie R. Yates ◽  
Lary B. Cowart

We measure the impact of a golf course as a residential amenity on surrounding home values in several communities in Shelby County, Alabama. We compare the values of homes in golf course communities (GCCs) and non-golf course communities, as well as the values of homes within these communities before and after the golf course closes. Using a methodology similar to Bond, Seiler, and Seiler (2002), we examine the sales prices of homes within GCCs both before and after a golf course closure to see how the closure affects the sales prices of homes and test for the significance of that difference. We calculate the difference in value for homes in GCCs before and after the golf course is closed and test for the significance of that difference. We estimate the degree to which specific factors explain the variance in home prices in these communities before and after the golf course closed. We find that homes in GCCs sell at a 9% premium compared to homes in non-GCCs. We also find that home prices in GCCs decrease by 17% after the related golf course closes; home prices for properties adjacent to a golf course diminish as well.


2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wafa Abdelmalek ◽  
Sana Ben Hamida ◽  
Fathi Abid

The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility's forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming's ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneyness-time to maturity classes. Total and out-of-sample mean squared errors are used as forecasting's performance measures. Comparisons reveal that the time series model seems to be more accurate in forecasting-implied volatility than moneyness time to maturity models. Overall, results are strongly encouraging and suggest that the genetic programming approach works well in solving financial problems.


Urban Studies ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 004209802092603
Author(s):  
Lindsey Conrow ◽  
Siân Mooney ◽  
Elizabeth A Wentz

City officials and planners have shown increased interest in pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly designs aimed at addressing urban problems such as traffic congestion, pollution, sprawl and housing availability. An important planning consideration is the economic impact associated with existing or planned infrastructure, especially in relation to home property values. In this study, we use measures of infrastructure and ridership to evaluate the relationship between bicycling infrastructure and activity and single-family home values in Tempe, Arizona. We apply a hedonic modelling approach and find that bicycle infrastructure density is positively associated with home sale price, while ridership density around home locations has no significant relationship with sale price. Our results inform discourse related to the potential economic values of residential bicycle infrastructure, especially in areas where property tax is a source of local public finance revenue. We show that the characteristics of bicycle-friendly design may be the same characteristics valued by homebuyers and the resulting increased home sale values may lead to increased property tax revenue in Tempe, Arizona.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 483-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Seong Lee

Purpose The primary purpose of this study is to identify whether there is a price premium and consumers’ preferences for higher housing density, and whether there is a relationship between housing densities and sales prices. The second purpose was to identify if there is a non-linear relationship between housing density and prices even though housing density is directly associated with housing prices. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies hedonic modeling techniques to measure the value of development density of apartments in the metropolitan area of Seoul, South Korea. The regression of the sale price is a function of different types of variables such as density, market, location and other control variables. Findings For the first question, this paper concludes that the higher densities cause housing prices to decrease in Seoul. The summary of the results presents that housing density, floor area ratio (FAR), building coverage ratio and floor level are all important components affecting housing prices. Generally, consumers tend to buy housing with central heating systems, more parking spaces, smaller portion of rental housing within an apartment and buildings that have more of a mixed-use function. Consumers are also found to pay higher premiums for housing in areas with high population growth and less housing supply. It is conclusive that people are inclined to live in populated areas but do not want more density. For the second question, the results show that generally FAR has quadratic effects, but most housing density variables tend to have a non-linear relationship depending on the different quantile groups. Originality/value There is a knowledge gap in the area of estimating development density of apartments. Generally, studies investigating property value impacts of multifamily housing focus on external effects of the multifamily housing on home values to examine whether high density development could result in a decrease in nearby property values. These studies found that there are some positive effects. A study found that high-density housing increases property values of existing single-family homes (Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2011). More specifically, developments that are of a high design quality and superior landscaping increase values of single-family homes as well. Also, those residents who live in these high-density apartments can be good potential buyers for the existing single-family homes. The greater the number of buyers, the greater the housing market becomes. Similarly, according to a report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (2011) at Harvard University, the presence of multifamily residents correlates with higher home values in “working communities”. Indeed, density can be an important factor determining value of apartments because of its unique characteristics. However, no empirical evidence has been provided in the literature with regard to the value of the development density. This study contributes toward improving this knowledge gap.


2022 ◽  
Vol 158 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob A. Dambon ◽  
Stefan S. Fahrländer ◽  
Saira Karlen ◽  
Manuel Lehner ◽  
Jaron Schlesinger ◽  
...  

AbstractThis article examines the spatially varying effect of age on single-family house (SFH) prices. Age has been shown to be a key driver for house depreciation and is usually associated with a negative price effect. In practice, however, there exist deviations from this behavior which are referred to as vintage effects. We estimate a spatially varying coefficients (SVC) model to investigate the spatial structures of vintage effects on SFH pricing. For SFHs in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland, we find substantial spatial variation in the age effect. In particular, we find a local, strong vintage effect primarily in urban areas compared to pure depreciative age effects in rural locations. Using cross validation, we assess the potential improvement in predictive performance by incorporating spatially varying vintage effects in hedonic models. We find a substantial improvement in out-of-sample predictive performance of SVC models over classical spatial hedonic models.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-315
Author(s):  
William Miles

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine whether house prices and income share a stable, stationary relationship in the G-7 countries. This stable relationship has been clearly implied by theory but has been difficult to uncover empirically in previous studies. Design/methodology/approach The analysis entails using nonlinear tests for a stationary relationship between home prices and per-capita income for the G-7 countries, whereas most previous papers on the topic have used linear methods. Findings When the standard linear ADF test is used, no stationary relationship for home prices and income is found for any of the G-7 countries. When the more powerful (but still linear) Ng–Perron test is used, the USA, but no other G-7 country, exhibits a stable relationship between the two variables. When the nonlinear Enders–Granger test is used, stationarity between home prices and income is found for five of the remaining six G-7 states. Practical implications Previous research has shown that as house prices have risen far above the income, especially over bubble periods, income has done a poor job in predicting home values. The findings show that income has a clear long-run stationary relationship with home values. This implies income could be helpful in providing home price forecasts. Originality/value Where previous studies have failed to find a long-run relationship between home prices and income while using linear methods, results in this paper show this theoretical asset–pricing relationship holds once the adjustment process is allowed to exhibit nonlinearity.


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