scholarly journals International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia

2014 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesus Sierra
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
Predictive Regressions ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bond Risk

We investigate whether foreign purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury securities significantly affect their expected excess-returns. We run predictive regressions of realized excess returns on measures of net purchases of treasuries by both foreign official and private agents. We find that official flows, with a negative effect, appear similar to relative supply shocks; private flows, with a positive impact, resemble flows that absorb excess-supply and are thus compensated for this service, similar to the role of arbitrageurs. The results are robust to out-of-sample tests and the use of benchmark survey-consistent adjusted flows data.

scholarly journals Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 1667-1703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas N. Eriksen
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
Predictive Regressions ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Business Conditions ◽  
Bond Risk

In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market.

scholarly journals The Role of Confucius Institutes and One Belt, One Road Initiatives on the Values of Cross-Border M&A: Empirical Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10277
Author(s):  
Jin-Young Jung ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Sung-Woo Cho
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cultural Distance ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Long Run ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Confucius Institutes

This study examines how national cultural policies such as Confucius Institutes and One Belt, One Road initiatives (BRI) affect the post-acquisition returns of Chinese cross-border mergers and acquisitions based on data from a sample of 192 transactions covering 2011 to 2015. We find that the cultural export of Chinese Confucius Institutes and the BRI exert a significantly positive impact on long-term acquirer returns, while cultural/institutional distance exerts a negative impact. Further evidence shows that Confucius Institutes and BRI mitigate the negative effect of cultural distance between merging firms. These results offer the first evidence that national cultural translation has substantial impacts on the long-run acquirer financial performance of cross-border mergers that decrease cultural institutional heterogeneity between countries.

Labor lawsuits and debt maturity

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Unsal
Keyword(s):  
Chief Executive ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Employee Relations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Legal Fees

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how firms’ relationships with employees define their debt maturity. The authors empirically test the role of employee litigations in influencing firms’ choice of short-term versus long-term debt. The authors study employee relations by analyzing the importance of the workplace environment on capital structure. Design/methodology/approach The author’s test hypotheses using a sample of US publicly traded firms between 2000 and 2017, including 3,056 unique firms with 4,256 unique chief executive officer, adopting the fixed effect panel model. Findings The authors document that employee litigations have a significant negative effect on the use of short-term debt and a significant positive affect on long-term debt. Employee litigations, along with legal fees, outcomes and charging parties, matter the most in explaining debt maturity. In addition, frequently sued firms abandon the short-term debt market and use less shareholders’ equity to finance their operations while relying more on the longer debt market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the role of employee mistreatment in debt maturity choice. The study extends the lawsuit and finance literature by examining unique, hand-collected data sets of employee lawsuits, allegations, violations, settlements, charging parties, case outcomes and case durations.

The persistent effect of banking crises on investment and the role of financial markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Rioja ◽  
Fernando Rios-Avila ◽  
Neven Valev
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Negative Effect

Purpose – While the literature studying the effect of banking crises on real output growth rates has found short-lived effects, recent work has focused on the level effects showing that banking crises can reduce output below its trend for several years. This paper aims to investigate the effect of banking crises on investment finding a prolonged negative effect. Design/methodology/approach – The authors test to see whether investment declines after a banking crisis and, if it does, for how long and by how much. The paper uses data for 148 countries from 1963 to 2007. Econometrically, the authors test how banking crises episodes affect investment in future years after controlling for other potential determinants. Findings – The authors find that the investment to GDP ratio is on average about 1.7 percent lower for about eight years following a banking crisis. These results are robust after controlling for credit availability, institutional characteristics, and a host of other factors. Furthermore, the authors find that the size and duration of this adverse effect on investment varies according to the level of financial development of a country. The largest and longer-lasting decrease in investment is found in countries in a middle region of financial development, where finance plays its most important role according to theory. Originality/value – The authors contribute by finding that banking crisis can have long-term effects on investment of up to nine years. Further, the authors contribute by finding that the level of development of the country's financial markets affects the duration of this decrease in investment.

The relationship between training satisfaction, organisational citizenship behaviour, and turnover intention

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mumtaz Ali Memon ◽  
Rohani Sallaeh ◽  
Mohamed Noor Rosli Baharom ◽  
Shahrina Md Nordin ◽  
Hiram Ting
Keyword(s):  
Turnover Intention ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Training Satisfaction ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Unexpected Findings

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of training satisfaction as a predictor of organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB) and turnover intention. The study further examines the mediating role of OCB between training satisfaction and turnover intention. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from 409 Malaysian oil and gas (O&G) sector employees. Partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was used to test the hypotheses in the research model using SmartPLS 3.0. Findings This study highlights the significant positive impact of training satisfaction on OCB and the negative effect on turnover intention. Contrary to expectations, OCB proved to be neither a predictor of turnover intention nor a mediator in the model. Practical implications Although the main aim of this study was to test the theoretically driven hypotheses, the findings have a number of valuable implications for organisations. This study suggests that O&G organisations should focus on increasing employee satisfaction with training to maximise desired workplace attitudes and behaviours. Originality/value This is the first study to explore the causal links between training satisfaction, OCB and turnover intention. Although it has been observed in the past that training does not directly influence turnover intention, the present study indicates that training satisfaction significantly influences turnover intention. Further, this study unexpectedly found no direct relationship between OCB and turnover intention. Also, OCB was not a significant mediator in the present study. These unexpected findings open new avenues for future research, thus representing an important contribution of the present study.

scholarly journals Environmental sustainable value in agriculture revisited: How does Common Agricultural Policy contribute to eco-efficiency?

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-152
Author(s):  
Bazyli Czyżewski ◽  
Anna Matuszczak ◽  
Aleksander Grzelak ◽  
Marta Guth ◽  
Adam Majchrzak
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Common Agricultural Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Small Farms ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Sustainable Value ◽  
Negative Effect

AbstractThe conflict between capital-intensive agriculture, often called industrial agriculture, and sustainable farming is ongoing, and not because of Western European countries, where intensification is increasingly sustainable. It is caused by several million small farms in Central and Eastern Europe that must choose a long-term development path. This is also a dilemma for agricultural policy: Are small farms so environmentally friendly that they should play the role of ‘landscape guardians’ at the expense of public support and economic vegetation, or should they strive to improve productivity through investments? This study offers a methodological contribution to the value-based sustainability approach by computing indicators of environmental sustainable value (ESV). The authors have attempted to combine the value-oriented approach with frontier benchmarking. They then tested how the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) schemes contribute to ESV using a long-term panel of regionally representative farms from Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) with regard to factor endowments, for the years 2004–2017. The seminal within–between specification was employed to control the time variant and time invariant space heterogeneity of European regions. The main finding is that higher investment support is beneficial to ESV. Regarding factor endowment influence, there was a positive impact of the capital–labour ratio. Except the cross-sectional impact of environmental subsidies, the payments exert a negative effect on ESV.

The effect of task conflict on outsourcers’ long-term orientation toward suppliers: the moderating role of formal control and Chinese guanxi

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuting Li ◽  
Mark H. Haney ◽  
Gukseong Lee ◽  
Mingu Kang ◽  
Changsuk Ko
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Management ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Task Conflict ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Formal Control ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Moderating Role

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the antecedents of manufacturing firms’ long-term orientation towards their suppliers in the context of outsourcing relationships in China. Design/methodology/approach Based on survey data collected from 224 manufacturing firms in China, this study examines the hypothesized relationships. Findings The results show that task conflict has a negative effect on long-term orientation, both Chinese guanxi and formal control are useful governance mechanisms to enhance long-term orientation, and the negative effect of task conflict on the long-term orientation weakens as Chinese guanxi between a manufacturer and its supplier increases. Originality/value This study contributes to a better understanding of conflict management in outsourcing relationships in China.

Rainfall trends in hindsight and in foresight

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theano Iliopoulou ◽  
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Linear Trends

<p>Trends are customarily identified in rainfall data in the framework of explanatory modelling. Little insight however has been gained by this type of analysis with respect to their performance in foresight. In this work, we examine the out-of-sample predictive performance of linear trends through extensive investigation of 60 of the longest daily rainfall records available worldwide. We devise a systematic methodological framework in which linear trends are compared to simpler mean models, based on their performance in predicting climatic-scale (30-year) annual rainfall indices, i.e. maxima, totals, wet-day average and probability dry, from long-term daily records. Parallel experiments from synthetic timeseries are performed in order to provide theoretical insights to the results and the role of parsimony in predictive modelling is discussed. In line with the empirical findings, it is shown that, prediction-wise, simple is preferable to trendy.</p>

School Physical Education, Extracurricular Sports, and Lifelong Active Living

2008 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Bocarro ◽  
Michael A. Kanters ◽  
Jonathan Casper ◽  
Scott Forrester
Keyword(s):  
Physical Education ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
After School ◽  
Active Living ◽  
Physically Active ◽  
Obesity Epidemic ◽  
Intramural Sports

The purpose of this article is to examine the role of school-based extracurricular initiatives in facilitating immediate and long-term positive impact on physical activity, healthy behavior, and obesity in children. A critique of the role of various sports-related initiatives that have been developed to address the obesity epidemic currently facing children within the United States is provided, with a specific emphasis on intramural sports as a preferred mechanism to encourage long-term involvement in sport and physically active pursuits. The article presents support for the notion that a physical education curriculum that includes intramurals before, during, and after school can help children learn the skills to enjoy participation in a variety of sports designed to facilitate lifelong active living.

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