Measuring and Modeling Group Dynamics in Open-Source Software Development: A Tensor Decomposition Approach

Many open-source software projects depend on a few core developers, who take over both the bulk of coordination and programming tasks. They are supported by peripheral developers, who contribute either via discussions or programming tasks, often for a limited time. It is unclear what role these peripheral developers play in the programming and communication efforts, as well as the temporary task-related sub-groups in the projects. We mine code-repository data and mailing-list discussions to model the relationships and contributions of developers in a social network and devise a method to analyze the temporal collaboration structures in communication and programming, learning about the strength and stability of social sub-groups in open-source software projects. Our method uses multi-modal social networks on a series of time windows. Previous work has reduced the network structure representing developer collaboration to networks with only one type of interaction, which impedes the simultaneous analysis of more than one type of interaction. We use both communication and version-control data of open-source software projects and model different types of interaction over time. To demonstrate the practicability of our measurement and analysis method, we investigate 10 substantial and popular open-source software projects and show that, if sub-groups evolve, modeling these sub-groups helps predict the future evolution of interaction levels of programmers and groups of developers. Our method allows maintainers and other stakeholders of open-source software projects to assess instabilities and organizational changes in developer interaction and can be applied to different use cases in organizational analysis, such as understanding the dynamics of a specific incident or discussion.