Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy M. Iler ◽  
Paul J. CaraDonna ◽  
Jessica R.K. Forrest ◽  
Eric Post
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life History ◽  
Life History Theory ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vital Rate ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Phenological Shifts

When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The Evolution of Human Infancy: Why It Helps to Be Helpless

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen R. Rosenberg
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Material Culture ◽  
Cultural Adaptation ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Developmental State ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Cultural Adaptations ◽  
Social And Emotional ◽  
Emotional Relationships

Humans have a prolonged childhood, which begins with an immature developmental state at birth. We take care of these helpless infants through a variety of cultural adaptations, including material culture, provisioning of food, and shared child care. Our species has long been characterized as having secondary altriciality, but an examination of human life history shows that we are fundamentally precocial, despite seeming helpless at birth. Human babies are also relatively large and overall require substantial attention and energy from caregivers. Previous work has focused on how culture permits us to give birth to helpless young and how our cultural adaptation solves problems stemming from encephalization. The birth of these dependent, costly creatures poses challenges but also creates opportunities by enhancing the development of social and emotional relationships with caregivers as well as language acquisition and enculturation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Anthropology, Volume 50 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Consolidating the Circuit Model for Addiction

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Lüscher ◽  
Patricia H. Janak
Keyword(s):  
Negative Reinforcement ◽  
Circuit Model ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Early Model ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Individual Vulnerability ◽  
Core Components ◽  
Natural Rewards ◽  
Pathological Behavior

Addiction is a disease characterized by compulsive drug seeking and consumption observed in 20–30% of users. An addicted individual will favor drug reward over natural rewards, despite major negative consequences. Mechanistic research on rodents modeling core components of the disease has identified altered synaptic transmission as the functional substrate of pathological behavior. While the initial version of a circuit model for addiction focused on early drug adaptive behaviors observed in all individuals, it fell short of accounting for the stochastic nature of the transition to compulsion. The model builds on the initial pharmacological effect common to all addictive drugs—an increase in dopamine levels in the mesolimbic system. Here, we consolidate this early model by integrating circuits underlying compulsion and negative reinforcement. We discuss the genetic and epigenetic correlates of individual vulnerability. Many recent data converge on a gain-of-function explanation for circuit remodeling, revealing blueprints for novel addiction therapies. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Neuroscience, Volume 44 is July 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristie L. Ebi ◽  
Jennifer Vanos ◽  
Jane W. Baldwin ◽  
Jesse E. Bell ◽  
David M. Hondula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Health System ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Resilient Infrastructure

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Disinformation, and How to Combat It

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Lewandowsky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cognitive Abilities ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Public Acceptance ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Multiple Levels

Climate change presents a challenge at multiple levels: It challenges our cognitive abilities because the effect of the accumulation of emissions is difficult to understand. Climate change also challenges many people's worldview because any climate mitigation regime will have economic and political implications that are incompatible with libertarian ideals of unregulated free markets. These political implications have created an environment of rhetorical adversity in which disinformation abounds, thus compounding the challenges for climate communicators. The existing literature on how to communicate climate change and dispel misinformation converges on several conclusions: First, providing information about climate change, in particular explanations of why it occurs, can enhance people's acceptance of science. Second, highlighting the scientific consensus can be an effective means to counter misinformation and raise public acceptance. Third, culturally aligned messages and messengers are more likely to be successful. Finally, climate misinformation is best defanged, through a process known as inoculation, before it is encountered, although debunking techniques can also be successful. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Nina von Uexkull
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Economic Prosperity ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Humanitarian Crises ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Conflict Risk

Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: ( a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, ( b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and ( c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 46 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon R. Graham ◽  
Michael D. Makowsky
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Justice System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Negative Consequences

Revenue generated through the criminal justice system has become a key component of local government budgets across the United States. Although numerous restrictions exist to constrain traditional sources of revenue, only recently have legislators introduced checks on the fiscal profitability of fines, fees, forfeitures, and asset seizures. Left unrestricted, fiscal incentives have demonstrably manifested in the enforcement patterns and discretionary decisions of police. The transformation of officers into agents of revenue creation leads to increased targeting of minority populations and out-of-towners, with emphasis on arrests that yield potential property seizure, with negative consequences for both community trust and the provision of public safety. Those burdened with legal financial obligations are disproportionately poor, positioning the criminal justice system as a pointedly regressive form of taxation. We discuss the mechanisms behind criminal justice revenue generation, the consequences to law enforcement outcomes, and policies designed to reform and mitigate revenue-driven law enforcement. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 4 is January 13, 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1964) ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Bull ◽  
Owen R. Jones ◽  
Luca Börger ◽  
Novella Franconi ◽  
Roma Banga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Phenological Shifts

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992–2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus , to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.

scholarly journals At the Water's Edge: Coastal Settlement, Transformative Adaptation, and Well-Being in an Era of Dynamic Climate Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
William Solecki ◽  
Erin Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Community Change ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Transformative Adaptation

With accelerating climate change, US coastal communities are experiencing increased flood risk intensity, resulting from accelerated sea level rise and stronger storms. These conditions place pressure on municipalities and local residents to consider a range of new disaster risk reduction programs, climate resilience initiatives, and in some cases transformative adaptation strategies (e.g., managed retreat and relocation from highly vulnerable, low-elevation locations). Researchers have increasingly understood that these climate risks and adaptation actions have significant impacts on the quality of life, well-being, and mental health of urban coastal residents. We explore these relationships and define conditions under which adaptation practices will affect communities and residents. Specifically, we assess climate and environmental stressors, community change, and well-being by utilizing the growing climate change literature and the parallel social science literature on risk and hazards, environmental psychology, and urban geography work, heretofore not widely integrated into work on climate adaptation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Domestic Pressure and International Climate Cooperation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Tavoni ◽  
Ralph Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Environmental Agreements ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
International Policy ◽  
International Climate Policy ◽  
Important Challenge ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Shed Light

In the wake of 25 United Nations Climate Change Conferences of the Parties (and counting), international cooperation on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to avoid substantial and potentially irreversible climate change remains an important challenge. The limited impact of the Kyoto Protocol on curbing emissions, and the gap between the ambitions of its successor and the Paris Agreement's lack of sanctioning mechanisms for addressing noncompliance, demonstrates both the difficulties in negotiating ambitious environmental agreements and the reluctance of countries to comply with their agreed emission targets once they have joined the treaty. Therefore, a better understanding of the obstacles and opportunities that the interactions between domestic and international policy pose for the design of successful international climate cooperation is of utmost importance. To shed light on the roots of the stalemate (and suggest possible ways out), this article reviews and draws lessons from a growing theoretical, experimental, and empirical literature that accounts for the hierarchical interplay between domestic political pressure and international climate policy. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Resource Economics, Volume 13 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Civilization-Saving Science for the Twenty-First Century

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcia K. McNutt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Health ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Earth Science ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Change Mitigation

Geoscientists have generally been at the leading edge of predicting the challenges society faces from hazards both natural and anthropomorphic. As geoscientists, we have been less successful in devising the solutions to those problems to ensure a habitable planet for ourselves and future generations because often the solutions lie in creating novel partnerships with other researchers, including engineers, biologists, and social scientists. These sorts of transdisciplinary partnerships have been leading to radical advances in human health, under the banner of convergence science. Application of these principles of convergence science offers significant promise for addressing challenges such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, environmental health, protecting ecosystem services, and advancing sustainability science. To apply this approach rigorously, however, will involve a culture change in the geosciences in terms of how students are educated, how researchers are rewarded, and how projects are funded. ▪ Geoscientists need to work collaboratively with life, physical, and social scientists, as well as engineers, to solve the problems of our time. ▪ Universities need to address financial, procedural, educational, and cultural impediments to the conduct of convergence research. ▪ Adopting a solutions orientation to major environmental issues could help attract a more diverse geoscience workforce. ▪ Climate change mitigation would benefit from partnerships between geoscientists and social scientists to make the right behavior easy. ▪ The current course of Earth science education, research, and partnerships is inadequate to address sustainability. ▪ Ensuring environmental health requires collaboration between experts in health, environment, infrastructure, and economics. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 50 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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