scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports: Evidence from Two Small Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Serenis ◽  
Nicholas Tsounis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Small Countries ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for two small countries, Croatia and Cyprus, on aggregate exports during the period of first quarter of 1990 to first quarter of 2012. It is claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction on the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study, we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall, our results suggest that there is a positive effect of volatility on exports of Croatia and Cyprus.

FORECASTING THE RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE BASED ON THE MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
L. A. CHALDAEVA ◽  
◽  
A. A. DANILIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Major Factors

This article covers the forecasts of the USD/RUB exchange rate based on the econometric model. The major factors effect on the national currency exchange rate are interest rate, inflation, and price of oil. The reasons of the exchange rate fluctuation have been presented in this paper. A possible scenario of future USD/RUB fluctuations has been considered in this article.

scholarly journals Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Implication on the Nigerian Economy (1995-2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-38
Author(s):  
Andabai P.W. ◽  
Ogaga T.C.
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Import Trade

The study investigates the determinants of exchange rate volatility and its implication on the growth of the Nigerian economy; for the period (1995-2020). Secondary data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2020. The study employs Gross Domestic Product as proxy for the Nigerian economy and used as the dependent variable; whereas, exchange rate, import trade and export trade were used as explanatory variables to measure exchange rate fluctuation. Time series econometric techniques are used to test the hypotheses. Exchange rate has an insignificant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Import trade has a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Export trade has a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The error-correction result confirms that about 71% short-run adjustment speed from long-run disequilibrium. The coefficient of determination indicates that about 68% of the variations in the growth of the Nigerian economy can be explain by changes in exchange rate volatility variables. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuation is positive; but, had a significant impact on the performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommends that Government should encourage the export promotion strategies in order to maintain a surplus balance of trade and also conducive environment, adequate security, effective fiscal. The policy towards interest rate should be made such that savings would be stimulated thereby placing more funds in the hands of banks to intermediate to investors seeking funds. Government and policy makers should provide infrastructural facilities so that foreign investors will be attracted to invest in Nigeria. Government and policy makers should increase their surveillance on the commercial banks; in order to address the issue of arbitrarily increase of the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkire Nneamaka Loretta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

This study examines the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomics Performance in Nigeria from 1980-2019. The variables of interest include External Debt, Reserves, Exchange Rate, External Debt Servicing and Government Expenditure were analyzed using co-integration, auto-redistribution lag model (ARDL) and Granger Causality test to understand the long and short run relationship between the variables. Result revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign reserves and the exchange rate. Exchange rate Granger causes foreign reserves in Nigeria, while foreign reserves do not granger cause exchange rate Granger. This means that as the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates, it always has an impact on Nigeria's foreign reserves. The study recommends among other thing that the government should ensure that the country's foreign reserves are used and managed efficiently. This is because it has been established that foreign reserves have a beneficial impact on macroeconomic performance and stimulate economic growth both of which help to enhance the Nigerian economy.

Exchange-rate fluctuation and pricing behavior in China’s wood-based panel exporters: evidence from panel data

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 1392-1404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Zhonghua Yin ◽  
Jianbang Gan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
International Market ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Pricing To Market ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Pricing Behavior ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

As the largest wood-based panel producing and exporting country, China has experienced sharp reductions in the growth rate of its wood-based panel exports because of pressure caused by exchange-rate fluctuation. These fluctuations were exacerbated by the global financial crisis. China’s wood-based panel exporters need to adjust their pricing strategy to cope with the changes of international market conditions. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the relationship between exchange-rate fluctuation and the pricing behavior of China’s wood-based panel exporters. To evaluate the impact of the exchange rate on China’s wood-based panel export prices across multiple destinations, a pricing-to-market model incorporating panel data was used. The empirical results suggest that although complete exchange-rate pass-through exists widely in China’s wood-based exports, China’s fiberboard and plywood exporters tended to adopt different pricing strategies in the international wood-based panel market during the post-crisis era. China’s fiberboard exporters often used the pricing-to-market model to determine prices in the main export destination countries, while China’s plywood exporters tended to amplify the exchange-rate effects. This indicates that China’s plywood exporters have stronger international market power than China’s fiberboard exporters, partly because China’s plywood exporters have more advantages in terms of skilled labor.

scholarly journals Impact of the Exchange Rate and Price Volatility on FDI Inflows: Case of Morocco and Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Azzouzi Asmae ◽  
Bousselhami Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Turkish Government ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper aims to examine empirically the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. The sample used is based on the Mediterranean countries of Morocco and Turkey for the period 1990-2017. Empirical findings for Morocco revealing that in both short and long-terms, real exchange rate volatility is negative and highly significant. Price volatility depicts a positive effect, which means that greater volatility of inflation may cause greater marginal profitability of capital and hence increase investment. On the other hand, for Turkey, FDI inflows are found more elastic to domestic price fluctuations. The exchange rate volatility, instead, turned out to have a positive but insignificant effect. In addition, we found that the potential market size rate, institution quality, and infrastructure appear to be the key factors in attracting foreign capital in both countries. As for trade openness, a positive effect on FDI flows is only perceptible in Morocco. In addition, the series of structural reforms carried out by Turkish government have generated real benefits for foreign investors by creating the adequate environment. This has allowed Turkey to overcome the problems it was facing in attracting foreign investment during the period analysed.

scholarly journals CAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY PREDICT EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS VOLATILITY? EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN COUNTRIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinh Hoang Bach Phan ◽  
Solikin M. Juhro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asean Countries

This paper studies whether the global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) predicts the exchange rate and its volatility in 10 ASEAN countries using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2017. Applying the recently developed predictive regression model of Westerlund and Narayan (2012, 2015), we discover that the EPU positively and statistically significantly predicts the exchange rate of six out of ten currencies. One standard deviation increase in the EPU index leads to a depreciation of between 0.050% and 2.047% in these currencies. Moreover, the EPU predicts the exchange rate volatility for all 10 ASEAN countries. Their exchange rate volatilities increase by between 0.107% and 0.645% as a result of a one standard deviation increase in the EPU index. These results are robust to different forecasting horizons, different sub-sample periods, and after controlling for the global financial crisis.

Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria: Evidence from a Parametric Measure

2013 ◽  
Vol 03 (05) ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
Olusola Oloba ◽  
Opeyemi Abogan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Agent ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Degree

The study uses a parametric measure to discover the trend and possible causes of exchange rate volatility in Nigeria over the period 1986: 1-- 2009: 4. The study revealed that exchange rate has been volatile in Nigeria given the fact that the standard deviation of exchange rate has been unusually high and unusually low during the period under investigation. The parametric measure of exchange rate further confirmed a high degree of volatility which portrays higher risk to a risk-averse economic agent. The study therefore recommends that the government should always take a cognizance look at the frequent movement in the exchange rate with a view to regulating it because higher risks attached to high degree of volatility may scare off both domestic and foreign investors.

Employment Adjustments of Regular and Non-Regular Workers to Exogenous Shocks: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Fluctuation

ILR Review ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 001979391988796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izumi Yokoyama ◽  
Kazuhito Higa ◽  
Daiji Kawaguchi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Japanese Yen ◽  
Specific Human Capital

The authors investigate the adjustments in employment of regular and non-regular workers, exploiting the exchange-rate fluctuation and heterogeneous dependence on international trade across firms as a source of exogenous variation. An analysis of panel data of Japanese manufacturers reveals that the appreciation of the Japanese yen spontaneously decreased the sales of exporters and the employment of non-regular workers, but it did not reduce the employment of regular workers. This finding provides support for the claim that firms are likely to adjust the employment of non-regular workers to absorb exogenous shocks and to insulate regular workers from the shocks in an uncertain business environment. In exploring the mechanism driving these results, the authors also find that exporters use the employment of non-regular workers and wages of regular workers as adjustment margins for the exchange-rate fluctuation to hoard regular workers, who presumably hold higher levels of firm-specific human capital.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate and International Trade: Case From Indonesian Manufacturing Sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-266
Author(s):  
Anung Yoga Anindhita
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to have impacts on the international trade through its adjustment to the price and its volatility to the trade risk. This paper is aimed at estimating those impacts on the international trade of manufacturing sector in Indonesia for period 2007 to 2014. To conduct estimation, it uses multiple regression analysis on two models: First, the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials; Second, the export of manufacturing sector. The results show that the exchange rate impacts both work significantly on the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials. The finding implies that, through the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials, manufacturing sector is very susceptible to the shock caused by exchange rate changes. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing sector is not able to take advantage of the depreciation of the exchange rate due to the lack of competitiveness.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5210

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