scholarly journals Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Implication on the Nigerian Economy (1995-2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-38
Author(s):  
Andabai P.W. ◽  
Ogaga T.C.
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Import Trade

The study investigates the determinants of exchange rate volatility and its implication on the growth of the Nigerian economy; for the period (1995-2020). Secondary data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2020. The study employs Gross Domestic Product as proxy for the Nigerian economy and used as the dependent variable; whereas, exchange rate, import trade and export trade were used as explanatory variables to measure exchange rate fluctuation. Time series econometric techniques are used to test the hypotheses. Exchange rate has an insignificant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Import trade has a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Export trade has a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The error-correction result confirms that about 71% short-run adjustment speed from long-run disequilibrium. The coefficient of determination indicates that about 68% of the variations in the growth of the Nigerian economy can be explain by changes in exchange rate volatility variables. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuation is positive; but, had a significant impact on the performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommends that Government should encourage the export promotion strategies in order to maintain a surplus balance of trade and also conducive environment, adequate security, effective fiscal. The policy towards interest rate should be made such that savings would be stimulated thereby placing more funds in the hands of banks to intermediate to investors seeking funds. Government and policy makers should provide infrastructural facilities so that foreign investors will be attracted to invest in Nigeria. Government and policy makers should increase their surveillance on the commercial banks; in order to address the issue of arbitrarily increase of the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate, Inflation, Export and Import on Gross Domestic Product in Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
pp. 170-175
Author(s):  
Papi Halder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports: Evidence from Two Small Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Serenis ◽  
Nicholas Tsounis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Small Countries ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for two small countries, Croatia and Cyprus, on aggregate exports during the period of first quarter of 1990 to first quarter of 2012. It is claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction on the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study, we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall, our results suggest that there is a positive effect of volatility on exports of Croatia and Cyprus.

Effect Of Leverage, Inflation And GDP To Share Price Pt. Astra Otoparts Tbk.

ProBank ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Heriyanta Budi Utama ◽  
Florianus Dimas Gunurdya Putra Wardana
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Purposive Sampling

The purpose of this study was to obtain empirical evidence about the effect of leverage, inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the share price at PT. Astra Autopart, Tbk. companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2011-2015. The sampling technique in this study using a purposive sampling. With the technique of purposive  sampling, all the members of the research samples by criteria. Samples that meet the criteria are used research data. Then followed the classic assumption test and test hypotheses by linear regression. The results of this study demonstrate the regression results in regression equation that Y = 2605,424 + 1561,550 X1 + 2,338 X2 + 38,994X3. T test results showed that the leverage anda GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is positive and significant effect on stock prices, while inflation is not positive and significant effect on stock prices. F test results showed that jointly leverage variables, inflation and GDP variables affecting the stock price significantly. The test results R2 (coefficient of determination) found that the variable leverage, inflation and GDP able to explain 35,4% of the stock price variable, while the remaining 64,6% is explained by other variables.Keywords: leverage, inflation, GDP, and the share priceThe purpose of this study was to obtain empirical evidence about the effect of leverage, inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the share price at PT. Astra Autopart, Tbk. companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2011-2015.The sampling technique in this study using a purposive sampling. With the technique of purposive  sampling, all the members of the research samples by criteria. Samples that meet the criteria are used research data. Then followed the classic assumption test and test hypotheses by linear regression.The results of this study demonstrate the regression results in regression equation that Y = 2605,424 + 1561,550 X1 + 2,338 X2 + 38,994X3. T test results showed that the leverage anda GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is positive and significant effect on stock prices, while inflation is not positive and significant effect on stock prices. F test results showed that jointly leverage variables, inflation and GDP variables affecting the stock price significantly. The test results R2 (coefficient of determination) found that the variable leverage, inflation and GDP able to explain 35,4% of the stock price variable, while the remaining 64,6% is explained by other variables.Keywords: leverage, inflation, GDP, and the share price

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Samuel Erasmus Alnaa ◽  
Ferdinand Ahiakpor
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Data Set

The paper seeks to determine the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment in Ghana from 1986 to 2017. The study adopted the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model to fit the data set from 1986-2017. The results indicate that, previous quarter information can influence current quarter volatility in Foreign Direct Investment. Real exchange rate, gross domestic product and treasure bill rate considered as external factors, are all found to be significant. This shows that, volatility from these factors can spillover to volatility in foreign direct investment.  To ensure stable inflow of foreign direct investment, we recommend that policies should gear towards stability in the forex market and interest rate among others.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KURS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DAN SOLVABILITAS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM INVESTOR PADA PERUSAHAAN PERTAMBANGAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 6262
Author(s):  
Martina Carissa Dewi ◽  
Luh Gede Sri Artini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Regression Test

The level of return obtained by investors is influenced by microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. This study aims to obtain empirical evidence regarding the effect of exchange rates, Gross Domestic Product and solvency on stock returns. This research was conducted at the mining company in the coal sub-sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. All the coal mining sub-sector companies listed on the Stock Exchange for the period 2014-2017 used as the population. The method of determining the sample used is using a saturated sampling technique. Multiple linear regression test used as the data analysis on this research. Based on the results of the analysis of this study it was found that the exchange rate and GDP had a negative and significant effect on stock returns. The solvency proxied by DER has a positive and significant effect on stock returns. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Solvability and Return.

scholarly journals Empirical Relationship of Exchange Rate with Inflation, International Trade and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Pakistan’s Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 171-182
Author(s):  
Erum Khushnood Zahid Shaikh ◽  
Zahid H. Channa ◽  
Mehwish Bhutto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Relationship Of

In the modern world, the exchange rate plays an important role in measuring the strength of country’s economy in global economic conditions. An exchange rate is an important tool for controlling various macro-economic variables, and it is itself affected by different macro-economic variables. Pakistan is a developing country of the world and its unstable economy faces high variability in the exchange rate or devaluation of the domestic currency. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship of an exchange rate with selected macro-economic variables (i.e. import, GDP, Inflation & export), with a special focus on Pakistan’s economy. It also aims at finding out the degree of strength at which selected independent variables to leave a significant impact on the exchange rate in the economy of Pakistan (i.e. during the period of 1992 to 2017). For this secondary database study, data extracted from official website of World Bank, State Bank of Pakistan and Economic Surveys of Pakistan. Multiple regression models were used to measure the empirical impact of selected independent variables on exchange rate. Findings show that the Import and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have a significant negative impact on exchange rate whereas, export and inflation have a significant positive impact on the exchange rate in the economy of Pakistan. The study recommends that the Government of Pakistan should adapt to make its exchange rate policy more effective through high production, more export with a reduction of import and price stability.

scholarly journals VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH AFTER FIRST DIFFERENCING: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFLATION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN TANZANIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Rachel R. Cheti ◽  
Bahati Ilembo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

The objective of the study was to examine the trend of inflation and its key determinants in Tanzania. We used secondary time series data observed annually from January 1970 to 2020 which are inflation rate, GDP, Exchange rate and money supply. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model was employed for modeling. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) found that inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and Money supply (M3) were initially non-stationary but they became stationary after first differencing so as to proceed with the analysis. Preliminary tests before obtaining vector auto regressive model were carried out before determining the relationship between the variables. Diagnostic test such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, stability and normality were also important to evaluate the model assumptions and investigate whether or not there are observations with a large, undue influence on the analysis. We used Granger causality test (GCT) to determine causal- effect relationship between the variables. The results show that, there is a long run relationship between the variables, also the results showed that exchange rate and money supply (M3) both have a positive impact on inflation rate while gross domestic product (GDP) revealed a negative impact on inflation rate. Finally, the forecast of inflation rate for 15 years ahead was performed. The study recommends that the government should pursue both contractionary monetary policy and fiscal policy in order to control inflation in the country.

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