Extreme Precipitation Changes in the Semiarid Region of Xinjiang, Northwest China

This study focuses on extreme precipitation changes in Xinjiang Province of Northwest China, which has experienced an increase in climate disasters in recent years. This paper investigates extreme precipitation events in Xinjiang, using 54 stations with daily precipitation records from the period 1961–2008. Different statistical tests and approaches were used to check the significance of trends of single and Xinjiang regionally aggregated precipitation series for intensity and in frequency. There were predominantly positive trends in annual maximum precipitation and a remarkable increment in the frequency of extreme precipitation over certain thresholds (from 10 to 40 mm). Although the series of frequencies exceeding thresholds had positive trends, only a minority were statistically significant. This lack of significance is because of the high variability of extreme precipitation in space and time. Thus, significant trends were evident when we assessed the extreme precipitation indicators of intensity and frequency at the regional level, both in intensity and frequency over thresholds, with a clearer signal in Xinjiang.

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ENSO and Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events over the Contiguous United States

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2007jcli1705.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 22-39 ◽

Cited By ~ 48

Author(s):

Siegfried D. Schubert ◽

Yehui Chang ◽

Max J. Suarez ◽

Philip J. Pegion

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

West Coast ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

East Coast ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Variability ◽

The West ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Impact ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study the authors examine the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation events over the continental United States using 49 winters (1949/50–1997/98) of daily precipitation observations and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. The results are compared with those from an ensemble of nine atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST for the same time period. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the daily precipitation fields together with compositing techniques are used to identify and characterize the weather systems that dominate the winter precipitation variability. The time series of the principal components (PCs) associated with the leading EOFs are analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions to quantify the impact of ENSO on the intensity of extreme precipitation events. The six leading EOFs of the observations are associated with major winter storm systems and account for more than 50% of the daily precipitation variability along the West Coast and over much of the eastern part of the country. Two of the leading EOFs (designated GC for Gulf Coast and EC for East Coast) together represent cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally move and/or redevelop along the East Coast producing large amounts of precipitation over much of the southern and eastern United States. Three of the leading EOFs represent storms that hit different sections of the West Coast (designated SW for Southwest coast, WC for the central West Coast, and NW for northwest coast), while another represents storms that affect the Midwest (designated by MW). The winter maxima of several of the leading PCs are significantly impacted by ENSO such that extreme GC, EC, and SW storms that occur on average only once every 20 years (20-yr storms) would occur on average in half that time under sustained El Niño conditions. In contrast, under La Niña conditions, 20-yr GC and EC storms would occur on average about once in 30 years, while there is little impact of La Niña on the intensity of the SW storms. The leading EOFs from the model simulations and their connections to ENSO are for the most part quite realistic. The model, in particular, does very well in simulating the impact of ENSO on the intensity of EC and GC storms. The main model discrepancies are the lack of SW storms and an overall underestimate of the daily precipitation variance.

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Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in Extreme Precipitation on the European Macaronesian Islands

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos9080325 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (8) ◽

pp. 325 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Alexandre M. Ramos ◽

Ricardo M. Trigo ◽

Ricardo Tomé ◽

Margarida L. R. Liberato

Keyword(s):

Canary Islands ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Comprehensive Assessment ◽

Atmospheric Rivers ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Macaronesian Islands ◽

Weather Stations ◽

The Relationship ◽

Precipitation Events

The European Macaronesia Archipelagos (Azores, Madeira and Canary Islands) are struck frequently by extreme precipitation events. Here we present a comprehensive assessment on the relationship between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation events in these three Atlantic Archipelagos. The relationship between the daily precipitation from the various weather stations located in the different Macaronesia islands and the occurrence of atmospheric rivers (obtained from four different reanalyses datasets) are analysed. It is shown that the atmospheric rivers’ influence over extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) is higher in the Azores islands when compared to Madeira or Canary Islands. In Azores, for the most extreme precipitation days, the presence of atmospheric rivers is particularly significant (up to 50%), while for Madeira, the importance of the atmospheric rivers is reduced (between 30% and 40%). For the Canary Islands, the occurrence of atmospheric rivers on extreme precipitation is even lower.

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Climatology of Daily Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeast United States

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-14-0147.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 16 (6) ◽

pp. 2537-2557 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Laurie Agel ◽

Mathew Barlow ◽

Jian-Hua Qian ◽

Frank Colby ◽

Ellen Douglas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Seasonal Cycle ◽

Large Scale ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Warm Season ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Tail Distribution ◽

Hourly Data ◽

Early Fall ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract This study examines U.S. Northeast daily precipitation and extreme precipitation characteristics for the 1979–2008 period, focusing on daily station data. Seasonal and spatial distribution, time scale, and relation to large-scale factors are examined. Both parametric and nonparametric extreme definitions are considered, and the top 1% of wet days is chosen as a balance between sample size and emphasis on tail distribution. The seasonal cycle of daily precipitation exhibits two distinct subregions: inland stations characterized by frequent precipitation that peaks in summer and coastal stations characterized by less frequent but more intense precipitation that peaks in late spring as well as early fall. For both subregions, the frequency of extreme precipitation is greatest in the warm season, while the intensity of extreme precipitation shows no distinct seasonal cycle. The majority of Northeast precipitation occurs as isolated 1-day events, while most extreme precipitation occurs on a single day embedded in 2–5-day precipitation events. On these extreme days, examination of hourly data shows that 3 h or less account for approximately 50% of daily accumulation. Northeast station precipitation extremes are not particularly spatially cohesive: over 50% of extreme events occur at single stations only, and 90% occur at only 1–3 stations concurrently. The majority of extreme days (75%–100%) are related to extratropical storms, except during September, when more than 50% of extremes are related to tropical storms. Storm tracks on extreme days are farther southwest and more clustered than for all storm-related precipitation days.

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Understanding the mechanisms of summer extreme precipitation events in Xinjiang of arid Northwest China

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2020jd034111 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Guicai Ning ◽

Ming Luo ◽

Qiang Zhang ◽

Shigong Wang ◽

Zhen Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Northwest China ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Precipitation Events ◽

Arid Northwest China

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Assessing the Use of Satellite-Based Estimates and High-Resolution Precipitation Datasets for the Study of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Iberian Peninsula

Water ◽

10.3390/w10111688 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1688 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Riccardo Hénin ◽

Margarida Liberato ◽

Alexandre Ramos ◽

Célia Gouveia

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Real Time ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Winter Period ◽

Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Precipitation Events

An assessment of daily accumulated precipitation during extreme precipitation events (EPEs) occurring over the period 2000–2008 in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. Different sources for precipitation data, namely ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), both in near-real-time and post-real-time releases, are compared with the best ground-based high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) gridded precipitation dataset available for the IP (IB02). In this study, accuracy metrics are analysed for different quartiles of daily precipitation amounts, and additional insights are provided for a subset of EPEs extracted from an objective ranking of extreme precipitation during the extended winter period (October to March) over the IP. Results show that both reanalysis and multi-satellite datasets overestimate (underestimate) daily precipitation sums for the least (most) extreme events over the IP. In addition, it is shown that the TRMM TMPA precipitation estimates from the near-real-time product may be considered for EPEs assessment over these latitudes. Finally, it is found that the new ERA5 reanalysis accounts for large improvements over ERA-Interim and it also outperforms the satellite-based datasets.

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Trends in Persistent Seasonal-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Responsible for Seasonal Precipitation Totals and Occurrences of Precipitation Extremes over Canada

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0408.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (21) ◽

pp. 7105-7126 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Xuezhi Tan ◽

Thian Yew Gan ◽

Shu Chen ◽

Daniel E. Horton ◽

Xiaohong Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Circulation Pattern ◽

Atmospheric Moisture ◽

Dynamic Changes ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Circulation Patterns ◽

Precipitation Changes ◽

Synoptic Circulation ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract Both large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture content in the atmosphere govern regional precipitation. We partition recent changes in mean, heavy, and extreme precipitation for all seasons over Canada to changes in synoptic circulation patterns (dynamic changes) and in atmospheric moisture conditions (thermodynamic changes) using 500-hPa geopotential height and precipitation data over 1979–2014. Using the self-organizing map (SOM) cluster analysis, we identify statistically significant trends in occurrences of certain synoptic circulation patterns over the Canadian landmass, which have dynamically contributed to observed changes in precipitation totals and occurrence of heavy and extreme precipitation events over Canada. Occurrences of circulation patterns such as westerlies and ridges over western North America and the North Pacific have considerably affected regional precipitation over Canada. Precipitation intensity and occurrences of precipitation extremes associated with each SOM circulation pattern also showed statistically significant trends resulting from thermodynamic changes in the atmospheric moisture supply for precipitation events. A partition analysis based on the thermodynamic–dynamic partition method indicates that most (~90%) changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Canada resulted from changes in precipitation regimes occurring under each synoptic circulation pattern (thermodynamic changes). Other regional precipitation changes resulted from changes in occurrences of synoptic circulation patterns (dynamic changes). Because of the high spatial variability of precipitation response to changes in thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, dynamic contributions could offset thermodynamic contributions to precipitation changes over some regions if thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are in opposition to each other (negative or positive), which would result in minimal changes in precipitation intensity and occurrences of heavy and extreme precipitation events.

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Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12050620 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 620

Author(s):

Jin Ding ◽

Lan Cuo ◽

Yongxin Zhang ◽

Cunjie Zhang ◽

Liqiao Liang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Opposite Pattern ◽

Westerly Jet ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Daily Precipitation Data ◽

Moisture Transports ◽

Precipitation Events

Based on daily precipitation data from 115 climate stations, seasonal and annual precipitation and their extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS) in 1963–2015 are investigated. There exists a clear southeast-northwest gradient in precipitation and extreme daily precipitation but an opposite pattern for the consecutive dry days (CDDs). The wet southeast is trending dry while the dry center and northwest are trending wet in 1963–2015. Correspondingly, there is a drying tendency over the wet basins in the southeast and a wetting tendency over the dry and semi-dry basins in the center and northwest in summer, which will affect the water resources in the corresponding areas. The increase (decrease) in precipitation tends to correspond to the increase (decrease) in maximum daily precipitation but the decrease (increase) in CDDs. Extreme precipitation events with 20-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year recurrence occurred frequently in the past decades especially in the 1980s. The greatest extreme precipitation events tend to occur after the late 1990s and in the southeastern TPS. The ERA5 reanalysis and climate system indices reveal that (1) decreased moisture transports to the southeast in summer due to the weakening of the summer monsoons and the East Asian westerly jet; (2) increased moisture transports to the center in winter due to the strengthening of the winter westerly jet and north Atlantic oscillation; and (3) decreased instability over the southeast thus suppressing precipitation and increased instability over the northwest thus promoting precipitation. All these are conducive to the drying trends in the southeast and the wetting trends in the center.

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Long term changes of the sub-daily precipitation extremes in Hungary

10.5194/ems2021-251 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Monika Lakatos ◽

Olivér Szentes

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Data Series ◽

Precipitation Frequency ◽

Maximum Rainfall ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Digital Database ◽

Precipitation Changes

The warming climate evokes increasing frequency of extreme precipitation in some region. Analysis of long-term measurements could support the better understanding of the processes that cause extreme precipitation events.Automatic stations replaced the ombrometer in many places in Hungary, particularly from the late 1990s. The change of the measurement practice do not allow simply merging the data recorded form the registering paper in the past and the recent 10 minutes measurements.&#160; &#160;The most intense 5, 10, 20, 30, 60, 180 min sub-totals per rainfall events were recorded from the ombrometer registering paper before atomization, typically until 1993. By contrast, the 10 min precipitation sum from the AWSs are stored in the meteorological database of the Hungarian Meteorological Service from automatization. In order to join together the older and the AWS measurements it was necessary to develop a method to make this possible. Therefore we downscaled the 10 min data in time. The sampling of the AWSs is one minute, although the 1-minute data are available only for some stations in the digital database. &#160;We applied a linear regression model to downscale the 10-miniute data for 1 min. After this, we can derive the most intense sub-totals per events from the AWS data as if they have been measured with the ombrometers.Thereby a set of sub-daily precipitation indices defined in the INTENSE project (https://research.ncl.ac.uk/intense/aboutintense/ can be computed for longer data series. Some of the indices specified in INTENSE project describes the maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of heavy precipitation, frequency of rainfall above specific thresholds and some of them is related to diurnal cycle. A few of these indices are analysed for long data series to detect the sub-daily precipitation changes in Hungary.

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