Association between the Biophysical Environment in Coastal South China Sea and Large-Scale Synoptic Circulation Patterns: The Role of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High and Typhoons

Synoptic weather conditions can modulate short-term variations in the marine biophysical environment. However, the impact of large-scale synoptic circulation patterns (LSCPs) on variations in chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) remains unclear. Using a T-mode principal component analysis method, four types of LSCP related to the Northwest Pacific subtropical high are objectively identified over the SCS for the summers of 2015–2018. Type 1 exhibits a lower chl-a concentration of <0.3 mg m−3 offshore of southern Vietnam with respect to the other three types. For Type 2, the high chl-a concentration zone (>0.3 mg m−3) along the coast of Guangdong exhibits the widest areas of coverage. The offshore chl-a bloom jet (>0.3 mg m−3) formed in southern Vietnam is the most obvious under Type 3. Under Type 4, the high chl-a concentration zone along the coast of Guangdong is the narrowest, while the chl-a concentration in the middle of the SCS is the lowest (<0.1 mg m−3). These type differences are mostly caused by the various monsoon circulations, local ocean mesoscale processes and resultant differences in localized precipitation, wind vectors, photosynthetically active radiation and SST. In particular, precipitation over land helps to transport nutrients from the land to the shore, which is conducive to the increase of chl-a. However, precipitation over ocean will dilute the upper seawater and reduce chl-a. Typhoons pump the deeper seawater with nutrients to the surface, and therefore make a positive contribution to chl-a in most offshore areas; however, they also disturb shallower water and hinder the growth of phytoplankton, making a negative contribution near the coast of Guangdong. In general, our findings will provide a better understanding of wind pump impact: the responses of marine biophysical environments to LSCPs.

Application to NWP Models Verification of an Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Classification

&lt;p&gt;At Meteo Expert, a Italian private organization providing weather and climate services and formerly known as Epson Meteo Centre, we are using the Self Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm to study synoptic circulation over Southern Europe, evaluating the capability of five NWP global models and one multi-model ensemble to predict its variability in order to relate synoptic circulation patterns to temperature and precipitation forecast&amp;#8217;s quality over Italy. SOM is an iterative algorithm that &amp;#8216;learns&amp;#8217; the patterns of the input data vectors and organizes them into nodes within the SOM space, arranging like patterns in neighboring nodes and the most unlike patterns in nodes farthest from each other. Daily observed and predicted weather types from the five NWP global models and the multi-model ensemble were recognized and classified by the SOM. The SOM-based classification built for our purposes produces a 12-weather-type set using daily 500 hPa and 700 hPa geopotential, sea level pressure, 850 hPa temperature and 700 hPa specific humidity. The five global models are GFS from National Centers for Environmental Prediction, IFS from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather (ECMWF), Arpege from Meteo France, GEM from Canadian Meteorological Centre, ICON from Deutscher Wetterdienst, together with MIX, our multi-model ensemble. Here we would like to present some examples of this operational activity in the one-year-period, also showing how much the source of forecast errors may depend on large-scale dynamics rather than model's physical parameterisations. A quality index has been used to quantify the overall ability of models in predicting the circulation patterns, showing that MIX and ECMWF reached the best performance within 96 hours of forecast.&lt;/p&gt;

Impacts of the Westerlies on Planetary Boundary Layer Growth Over a Valley on the North Side of the Central Himalayas

&lt;p&gt;The spatial-temporal structure of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) over mountainous areas can be strongly modified by topography. The PBL over the mountainous terrain of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is more complex than that observed over its flat areas. To date, there have been no detailed analyses which have taken into account the topography effects exerted on PBL growth over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A clear understanding of the processes involved in the PBL growth and depth over the TP&amp;#8217;s mountainous areas is therefore long overdue.The PBL in the Himalayan region of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is important to the study of interaction between the area&amp;#8217;s topography and synoptic circulation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study used radiosonde, &lt;em&gt;in-situ&lt;/em&gt; measurements, ERA5 reanalysis dataset and numerical model to investigate the vertical structure of the PBL and the land surface energy balance in the Rongbuk Valley on the north of the central Himalaya, and their association with the Westerlies, which control the climate of the Himalaya in winters. Two sunny November days in 2014 with different synoptic conditions in terms of large-scale wind direction and speed were selected to investigate the ways in which large-scale synoptic forcing affected the vertical structure of the PBL, atmospheric stability, surface wind field, and land surface energy fluxes. The results revealed that the valley winds and PBL growth were strongly influenced by the variations of the westerlies. When the synoptic wind direction at the height of the mountain ridges was parallel to the axis of the valley, the downward transmission of the westerlies to the valley floor (DTWTV) was strong and cause high near-surface wind speeds and sensible heat flux value, then produced an extremely deep PBL (9 km above sea level) in the early afternoon of November 23. When the synoptic wind direction at the ridge height intersected the axis of the valley and was weak, the DTWTV was weak, and the PBL became relatively low on November 28. These results demonstrate that the interaction between the topography and synoptic circulation plays a critical role in PBL growth.&lt;/p&gt;

Convection-circulation interactions over West Africa in simulations with explicit and parameterised convection

&lt;p&gt;This work examines the representation of convection-circulation coupling over tropical West Africa in convection-permitting models. Tropical West Africa is not only a region characterised by extremely high-impact weather, in the form of intense and frequent organised convection, but it is also a region of strong baroclinicity and wind shear, and therefore an excellent natural laboratory for examining the connections between mesoscale convection and synoptic circulations. Developing understanding of&lt;sub&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;convection-circulation coupling is crucial to informing development of convection parameterisations and improving regional forecasts of high-impact weather.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We evaluate output from the CP4-Africa configuration of the Met Office Unified Model to investigate links between convective activity and synoptic motions. To illustrate its strengths in representing convection-circulation feedbacks, CP4 output is compared to that from a similar UM configuration which uses a convection parameterisation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We examine the mean diurnal cycle of circulation during the storm season. Distinct diurnal patterns in circulation tendency are compared to patterns in updraughts and precipitation, which illustrate different forms of convection which can be observed at different points during the day. A &amp;#8220;congestus&amp;#8221; mode convects up to around the freezing level from morning until early evening, while deep organised convection triggers in the mid-to-late afternoon and persists overnight. The two forms of convection appear to cause characteristically different responses in the synoptic circulation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To confirm which physical processes cause changes to circulation in the region, we calculate terms in the circulation tendency equation. Separating these terms into mean and eddy-flux contributions allows us to establish the extent to which mesoscale systems and synoptic structures each influence the diurnal changes to circulation.&lt;/p&gt;