scholarly journals Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dezhi Zhang ◽  
Jiehui Jiang ◽  
Shuangyan Li ◽  
Xiamiao Li ◽  
Qingwen Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Logistics Park ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Government Subsidies ◽  
Investment Size ◽  
Logistics Demand

This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1) investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2) the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3) logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

scholarly journals INVESTMENT TIMING UNDER REGIME SWITCHING

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 443-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT J. ELLIOTT ◽  
HONG MIAO ◽  
JIN YU
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Investment Cost ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Option Model

We investigate the optimal investment timing strategy in a real option framework. Depending on the state of the economy, whose changes are modeled by a Markov chain, the investment cost can take one of two values. The optimal investment timing decision is determined by finding the free boundary of a perpetual American option. Three investment timing policies, based on different assumptions of investors' information sets, are determined and compared. In the full information case, a significantly earlier optimal exercising time is indicated. We show that an optimal-timing policy suggested by the conventional real option model might ruin the investment opportunities.

scholarly journals Missed Opportunities: Optimal Investment Timing When Information is Costly

2007 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Guthrie
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Opportunity ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Optimal Delay

AbstractReal option analysis typically assumes that projects are continuously evaluated and launched at precisely the time determined to be optimal, but real world projects cannot be managed in this way because of the costs of formally evaluating an investment opportunity. This paper shows that immediate investment is more attractive if evaluation costs are high or the amount of information to be revealed by an evaluation is large. The optimal delay until a reevaluation is long if evaluation costs are high or the amount of information to be revealed by an evaluation is small. The reduction in the value of project rights is especially severe when the value of the completed project is strongly mean reverting because then precision in investment timing is particularly important.

scholarly journals A New Look at the Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy as an Alternative to Electric and Natural Gas-Powered Irrigation

2013 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 739-751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Lima ◽  
Gregory Colson ◽  
Berna Karali ◽  
Bridget Guerrero ◽  
Stephen Amosson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Stochastic Nature ◽  
Replacement Decisions

An extension of the Guerrero et al. (2010) net present value (NPV) analysis using real options analysis (ROA) is offered to improve machinery replacement decisions. Specifically, the feasibilities of replacing natural gas irrigation systems with either electric or hybrid (electric/wind) systems are evaluated. Results indicate NPV and ROA criteria can yield opposite decisions depending on the stochastic nature of the parameters, reversibility of the investment, and flexibility of investment timing. For policy, NPV results indicate that replacing natural gas with a hybrid is on the cusp of being optimal. However, ROA indicates this NPV implication may not hold.

scholarly journals A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4181
Author(s):  
Antonio Di Bari
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Real Option Value

Solar energy investment represents currently a valid reason to support sustainable economic development. In fact, over the last few years, governments have applied different measures to incentivize private consumers and firms to use renewable energies. Photovoltaic (PV) projects are characterized by uncertainty due to meteorological conditions, the unpredictable behavior of government, and managerial flexibility. Since the Net Present Value (NPV) approach is not able to capture these uncertain factors, it was replaced with the Real Options Approach (ROA). The latter method manages to embed flexibility in PV investment using binomial trees. This paper valuates PV investment in all regional areas in Italy using an integrated approach between the discounted cash flows method and real option value, called Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV). We fit the probability of tax benefits into a binomial lattice model after analyzing the geographical position and weather conditions of all regional capitals of Italy. The results show that the cities with high irradiance/temperature have positive NPV and high investment values. On the other hand, while most cities have negative NPV, the inclusion of the flexibility in investment decisions gives additional value to the project, making the ENPV positive and implying an attractive investment opportunity with the possibility of delaying the project. We also propose a sensitivity analysis that shows how the real option value changes when incentive policies of the government become more attractive. This paper contributes to the existing literature in the way of considering financial, meteorological/geographical, and political factors to valuate PV investment.

Natural disasters, mitigation investment and financial aid

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-625
Author(s):  
Rainer Andergassen ◽  
Luigi Sereno
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Financial Aid ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Investment Size ◽  
Financial Insurance

AbstractWe consider firms facing the risk of natural disasters and study their problem of investing in mitigation if financial insurance is not available. The firms' problem is to choose the optimal timing and size of the investment. The timing problem leads to a critical productivity size where firms above it invest in mitigation while firms below the threshold decide to not invest. We investigate how cash aid such as emergency response, and in-kind aid such as reconstruction, rehabilitation or disaster risk reduction investments, affect the critical productivity threshold and the optimal investment size and characterize the international donor's optimal charity strategy.

scholarly journals Forest management decision making based on a real options approach: An application to a case in northeastern Argentina

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Broz ◽  
Gastón Milanesi ◽  
Daniel Alejandro Rossit ◽  
Diego Gabriel Rossit ◽  
Fernando Tohmé
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Management Decision Making

Abstract The Net Present Value (NPV) approach is widely applied to assess forest investments, but this method has serious shortcomings, which we propose to overcome by switching to the assessment through the Real Options Approach (ROA). The model in this paper starts with the simulation of the forest’s growth, combined with the projection of the products’ prices and valuing the assets using a binomial model. We include an option of postponement, determining the optimal period of felling. We find that ROA is more robust than the NPV approach because it relaxes the assumption of constancy of both the prices and the discount rate, allowing the determination of the optimal time of felling based on the growth rate of either the forest or the prices of its products. Contrary to the traditional NPV approach, the results obtained with ROA exhibit longer harvest turns and consequently higher profits. The key variable in the ROA, the Real Option Value (ROV) can be shown to be less (albeit moderately) sensitive to decreases of the discount rate than NPV. Moreover, ROV is moderately sensitive to decreases in the price of logs and is negligibly affected by rises in the costs of harvesting, loading and transporting rolls.

scholarly journals The Method of Real Options in the Evaluation of Strategic and Investment Decisions

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-45
Author(s):  
Гераськина ◽  
A. Geraskina
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Option Price ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Important Addition ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow Method

The method of real options is one of the new approaches to estimate investment projects’ cost and it is an important addition to discounted cash flow method. Real option significantly increases the efficiency of the project due to the possibility of decision-making during its implementation. This aspect is especially important in unstable environmental conditions. The main differences between the financial and real options are presented. The differences of valuation of investment projects by the real options method and net present value are examined. The article presents the types of real options, as well as the methods of calculating the option price.

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