scholarly journals Distribution Network Risk Assessment Using Multicriteria Fuzzy Influence Diagram

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Circuit Breaker ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Influence Diagram ◽  
Planning Decision ◽  
Fuzzy Probabilities ◽  
Operational Issues ◽  
The Impact

Risk assessment of distribution assets is one of the most important factors in the process of network development or maintenance planning decision-making. The process of decision-making is faced with uncertainties, involving technical, financial, safety, environmental, and other operational issues that make standard risk assessment techniques insufficient. Probabilistic uncertainties require appropriate mathematical modeling and quantification when predicting future state of the nature or the value of certain parameters. The paper is proposing a new methodology for the multicriteria risk assessment of the distribution network assets, based on influence diagrams and fuzzy probabilities. Influence diagram has been used to determine all relevant factors concerning risks and their interdependencies are depicted. Fuzzy probabilities are represented by triangular fuzzy numbers with constraints on feasibility of elicited probabilities. This methodology enables the decision process in uncertain environment, with the impact evaluation of each particular distribution asset, or the asset component. The methodology is illustrated on the example of a distribution substation circuit breaker maintenance strategy selection.

Parole Guidelines: Suggested Research Questions

1981 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
James L. Galvin ◽  
Kenneth Polk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Statistical Procedures ◽  
Offense Severity ◽  
Rehabilitation Model ◽  
Time Served ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact

Three factors have supported the development of parole guidelines: criticism of the rehabilitation model as a basis for parole decision making and the accompanying movement toward a just deserts model of punishment, the development of sophisticated statistical procedures for risk assessment, and increasing questions about disparity in criminal justice decision making. This paper raises questions related to each of these three factors that should be addressed by the research community as guidelines are implemented. With respect to offense severity and sentence served, key considerations are the rationale for sentence lengths, the degree to which discretion is being structured, inmates' perceptions of the guidelines, and the effect of guidelines on time served. Under risk assessment and parole prediction, the accuracy of the salient factors as predictors, the problem of false positives, and the possibility of unan ticipated bias must be addressed. In terms of effects on the overall system, questions are raised about the extent to which discretion can be structured, the effect on correctional staffs of changing the purpose of correction, and the impact of such a shift on the already dwindling resources for the parolee. The paper closes with a call for a coherent program of research to accompany the implementation of guidelines.

SUSTAINABILITY-ORIENTED INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGIES & FINANCE IN CONSTRUCTION: A MULTI-CRITERIA METHODOLOGY

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriano A. R. Barbosa ◽  
Martins Vilnits ◽  
Walter Leal Filho
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Environmental Awareness ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Planning Decision ◽  
The Impact

Considering the efforts to adjust the great demand of the civil construction in the developing countries and the economic interests of the sector, in line with current sustainable trends, this article presents a methodology to support the planning and decision making of construction companies. An analysis of the elements involved in the process, their interaction and proposed application priorities are evaluated using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method as a multi-criteria decision support tool. The results obtained allow us to observe the parameters that guide the decision-making of the managers in the construction sites, the impact of low productivity and limited investments in innovation and processes, which still adopts the traditional methods of construction. However, exists a margin that is sustainable, without major financial impact, through the management and encouragement of the environmental awareness of investors, entrepreneurs and construction workers. The actions that interfere with the process and its application priorities in construction are related, within the context of innovation, technology and finance oriented to sustainability. Supported by the concepts of management and SOI (Sustainability-oriented innovation) topics, a discussion of the civil construction scenario in Brazil is carried out through the economic, social, technological and managerial issues typical of developing countries, guided by the strong trends in the macro-economics adjustments and rational use of natural resources in the coming decades. It highlights the main challenges of the sector and presents a analysis, planning, decision-making approach and collective impact actions that could support the development actions of the sector, in order to reduce the distance from the concepts of environmental awareness and attitudes existing in developed countries.

Equity in Distance Education

2013 ◽  
pp. 17-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distance Education ◽  
Curriculum Design ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Research Practice ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Meta Level ◽  
Planning Decision ◽  
The Impact

Within the context of distance education, an understanding of the impact of social justice issues is crucial for informing research, practice, funding, and policy. Equity and the related concerns of access, social inclusion, and ethics impact all levels of distance education, from the macro (research and development, including the globalisation of distance education), through the meso (community and open learning, including choices in educational technology), and down to the micro (teaching and learning, including choices in curriculum design). As a consequence, a modification to the macro-meso-micro framework of distance education is called for: one that situates equity at a meta level. This meta level encompasses all aspects in the field of distance education, and acts as a guide for policy-makers, academics, and administrators on planning, decision-making, and practice within the discipline.

scholarly journals Service Innovation Decision Analysis Based on Influence Diagrams

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 895-907
Author(s):  
Liang Tan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Directed Graph ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Service Innovation ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Influence Diagram ◽  
Interactive Dynamic

The influence diagram is a probabilistic model for presenting decision problems as a directed graph. In this study, the dynamic influence diagram and the interactive dynamic influence diagram are used to model the three parties to service innovation: customers, suppliers, and service enterprises. The models analyze the decisions of these dierent parties and describe the process by which service enterprises should consider their own innovation conditions as well as those of the other parties, that is, customers and suppliers. Moreover, during the process of service innovation, service enterprises should be in constant communication with customers and suppliers. After the customers and suppliers respond, service enterprises can modify their innovation decision-making, and improve service innovation quality and income.

The Impact of Risk Assessment on Juvenile Justice Decision-Making and New Adjudication: An Analysis of Usage and Outcome

2021 ◽  
pp. 154120402110612
Author(s):  
Amber A. Petkus ◽  
Christopher J. Sullivan ◽  
Melissa Lugo ◽  
Jamie Newsome
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
The Impact

Analysis of PSA Conservative Assumptions’ Impact on Risk Profile for Armenian NPP Unit 2

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahen Poghosyan ◽  
Armen Amirjanyan ◽  
Surik Bznuni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Comparative Risk Assessment ◽  
Comparative Risk ◽  
Full Power ◽  
Power Operation ◽  
The Impact

PSA is a powerful tool for detailed risk assessment and risk-informed decision making. The main deliverables from PSA models is comparative risk assessment of different risk contributors including systems, components, IEs, etc. Risk-informed decision making process is based on obtained risk profile. In comparison with deterministic approach conservatism included in PSA models could lead to deformation of risk profile which will bring to inappropriate decision making based on PSA results. This paper presents analysis done for Armenian NPP PSA study in order to assess the impact of conservative assumptions on final risk profile coming from potential internal initiating events at full power operation.

scholarly journals Tracking the Differentiation of Risk: The Impact of Subject Framing in CDC Communication Regarding COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-100
Author(s):  
Kathryn Lambrecht
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Important Decision ◽  
Public Risk ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Centers For Disease Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Communicating Risk ◽  
Decision Making Tool

Communicating risk amid moments of scientific ambiguity requires balance: Overdelivering certainty levels can cause undue alarm whereas underdelivering them can lead to increased public risk. Despite this complexity, risk assessment is an important decision-making tool. This article analyzes the circulation of the term “risk” in a corpus (74,804 words) of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention communications regarding COVID-19 from January 1 to April 30, 2020. Tracking collocations of the 147 instances of risk in this corpus reveals that experts initially framed risk away from individuals, complicating people’s differentiation between public and personal impacts. Recommendations are offered for how institutions can reframe subjectivity to promote vigilance during pandemics.

scholarly journals The Study on Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment Model of 10kV Overhead Line

2018 ◽  
Vol 173 ◽  
pp. 01008
Author(s):  
Song wei ◽  
Wang Yanfeng ◽  
Wang shuanghu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Weight Ratio ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Overhead Line ◽  
The Impact

Taking all kinds of affecting factors into account, the 10kV overhead line of distribution network lighting disaster risk is studied. Historical hidden fault, line equipment, topography, climatic conditions and social impact are selected as key factors of damage and the impact. The correlation among the factors and the weight ratio of each factor were studied. The risk assessment model of 10kV distribution network overhead line was established by multi-factor, hierarchical classification assessment method. It solves the evaluation index insufficient problem of the single factor as the evaluation condition, and provides the theoretical research and practical support to the 10kV overhead line reconstruction and the lightning prevention. The reliability and effectiveness of the research results have been proved by practical application in distribution network operation and maintenance control.

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