scholarly journals Market Power, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Derek Zweig
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Short Run

We explore the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the United States (1949-2019) through both Bayesian and spectral lenses. We employ Bayesian vector autoregression (“BVAR”) to expose empirical interrelationships between unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Generally, we do find short-run behavior consistent with the Phillips curve, though it tends to break down over the longer term. Emphasis is also placed on Phelps’ and Friedman’s NAIRU theory using both a simplistic functional form and BVAR. We find weak evidence supporting the NAIRU theory from the simplistic model, but stronger evidence using BVAR. A wavelet analysis reveals that the short-run NAIRU theory and Phillips curve relationships may be time-dependent, while the long-run relationships are essentially vertical, suggesting instead that each relationship is primarily observed over the medium-term (2-10 years), though the economically significant medium-term region has narrowed in recent decades to roughly 4-7 years. We pay homage to Phillips’ original work, using his functional form to compare potential differences in labor bargaining power attributable to labor scarcity, partitioned by skill level (as defined by educational attainment). We find evidence that the wage Phillips curve is more stable for individuals with higher skill and that higher skilled labor may enjoy a lower natural rate of unemployment.

scholarly journals Offre globale en économie ouverte, courbe de Phillips et détermination du taux de chômage naturel : une reformulation théorique

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Phaneuf
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run

Criticizing the fact the Phillips curve wage and price equations are usually reduced form or quasi-reduced form equations without an explicit structural model behind, this article is an attempt to provide a supply side based structural model of the Phillips curve. Of special importance are the theoretical specifications of the resulting wage and price equations that include several new explanatory variables and especially policy variables. After having demonstrated under what structural conditions the price-Phillips curve of this model will be a vertical in the long run, the model is solved for the theoretical specification of the natural rate of unemployment.

Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy

1990 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 91-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.G. Fisher ◽  
D.S. Turner ◽  
K.F. Wallis ◽  
J.D. Whitley
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Uk

The nature of the association between inflation and the level of unemployment has been a persistent issue of controversy over the last three decades. Initially, attention focussed on the statistical relationship between nominal wage inflation and unemployment— the Phillips curve—which could be seen equally as a relationship between price inflation and unemployment, if prices are a constant mark-up on wages. This was quickly adopted as a menu for policy choice, describing the trade-off between increases in unemployment and reductions in inflation. By the 1970s, however, the question was whether a long-run trade-off existed at all, the OECD economies having experienced rising unemployment and, simultaneously, rising inflation. The subsequent re-examination of labour market behaviour introduced the concept of an equilibrium rate (the natural rate) of unemployment which, in the monetarist view, was not amenable to demand management policies. More recent developments reflect a growing concern with the supply side of the economy, including the question of what determines the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).

scholarly journals Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips curve viewed from a half century's perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 425-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Demand Curve ◽  
Wage Setting ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Underlying Assumption ◽  
The Past ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The 1960S

In the late 1960s the stable negatively sloped Phillips curve was overturned by the Friedman–Phelps natural rate model. Their Phillips curve was vertical in the long run at the natural unemployment rate, and their short-run curve shifted up whenever unemployment was pushed below the natural rate. This paper criticizes the underlying assumption of the Friedman–Phelps approach that the labor market continuously clears and that changes in unemployment down or up occur only in response to ‘fooling’ of workers, firms, or both. A preferable and resolutely Keynesian approach explains quantity rationing by inertia in price and wage setting. The positive correlation of inflation and unemployment in the 1970s and again in the 1990s is explained by joining the negatively sloped Phillips curve with a positively sloped dynamic demand curve. For any given growth of nominal GDP, higher inflation implies slower real GDP growth and higher unemployment. This ‘triangle’ model based on demand, supply, and inertia worked well to explain why inflation and unemployment were both positively and negatively correlated between the 1960s and 1990s, but in the past decade the slope of the short-run Phillips curve has flattened as inflation exhibited a muted response to high unemployment in 2009–2013 and low unemployment in 2016–2018.

AGGREGATE PHILLIPS CURVES ARE NOT ALWAYS VERTICAL: HETEROGENEITY AND MISMATCH IN MULTIREGION OR MULTISECTOR ECONOMIES

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 534-546 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.J. Hughes Hallett
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Vertical Heterogeneity ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Individual

The aggregation of sectoral or regional Phillips curves yields an inflation–unemployment trade-off that is not vertical in the long run if there are mismatches between supply and demand in the regional or sectoral labor markets. This remains true even when the individual Phillips curves are all vertical. This result stems from variations in the slope of the individual short-run Phillips curves, rather than from changes to the equilibrium level of unemployment. It implies a role for the management of the distribution of demand over different sectors or regions, in order to minimize the natural rate of unemployment.

scholarly journals The governance of federal debt in the United States of America

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
Gisele Mah
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Interest Payment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Federal Debt

The United State of America has been experiencing high debt to GDP ratio of more than 100% and these Public debts are detrimental. The main purpose of this study was to examine the shocks of the variables on others in the USA economy by using quarterly data. The variance decomposition and the Generalised Impulse Response Function techniques were employed to analyse the data. The result revealed that high variation of shocks in real federal debt is explained by their own innovations in the short run, by CPI followed by real federal debt its self. In the long run, this leads to CPI and real government spending. The GIRF reveals that in the short run, real federal debt responds negatively to shocks from CPI, real federal interest payment and real federal government tax receipts and positively to real federal debt and real government spending. In medium term, only real federal government tax receipts are negative while the others are positive. In the long run, the response are all positive to shock from the independent variables. The results lead to the recommendation that the US government should focus on real federal debt in the short run. In the medium term, US government should focus on increasing real government spending and reducing only real federal government tax receipts. In the long run the target should real be federal debt, CPI, real federal interest payment, real government spending and real federal government tax receipts.

scholarly journals The time-varying long-run rate of unemployment in Colombia

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (269) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis E. Arango ◽  
Carlos E. Posada
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Classical Approach ◽  
Equilibrium Equations ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Cost

After the failure of the Phillips curve to explain the simultaneous ocurrence of rising inflation  and unemployment, the classical approach to the  theory of unemployment and inflation reemerged (see Friedman 1968; Phelps 1967, 1968). Milton Friedman (1968) defined the natural rate of unemployment as the level that would be ground out by the Walrasian system of general equilibrium equations, provided there is imbedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets, including market imperfections, stochastic variability in demand and supplies, the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor avialabilities, the cost of mobility, and so on.

scholarly journals The Influence of Interest Rates on Rental Rate in the United States Islamic Home Financing

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.30) ◽  
pp. 351
Author(s):  
Jamilu Jamilu A Salihu ◽  
. .
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
States Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rental Rate

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, whether the rental rate is free from the influence of interest rates on Islamic home financing. The study considers some selected macroeconomic variables to analyze the influence of interest rates on the rental rate. The study focuses on the United States data covering from the first quarter of 1990 to the last quarter of 2016. The study adopts Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships between the rental rate and the macroeconomic variables. The study finds consistent evidence that rental rate is free from the influence of short term and long term interest rates in both long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic results in the United States Islamic home financing. Hence, the rental rate could be accepted as an alternative to interest rates in Islamic home financing. The result contributes towards finding that the rental rate is free from the influence of interest rate in Islamic home financing. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the present study is the first of its kind which empirically investigates the influence of interest rates on the rental rate in Islamic home financing.  

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A Wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Morris Perlman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Gibson Paradox ◽  
The Relationship

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasising the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes ([1930] 1971) labelled this positive relationship the ‘Gibson Paradox’. A number of theories have been put forward as possible explanations of the paradox but they do not fit the long-run pattern of the relationship. We find that a formal model in the spirit of Wicksell (1907) and Keynes ([1930] 1971) offers an explanation for the paradox: where the need to stabilise the banking sector's reserve ratio, in the presence of an uncertain ‘natural’ rate, can lead to persistent deviations of the market rate of interest from its ‘natural’ level and consequently long-run swings in the price level.

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