scholarly journals Application of Grey System Model to Forecast the Natural Gas Imports in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Zhuan-Zhuan Shi ◽  
Xiao-Yi Gou ◽  
Bo Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Grey System ◽  
New Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Relative Percentage Error ◽  
Grey System Model ◽  
Gas Supply

China’s natural gas imports will keep an upward trend in the future due to its increasing demands. A comparatively accurate prediction of natural gas imports will help the Chinese government make appropriate decisions when formulating energy policies. In this paper, a new grey predication model, GPM_NGI model, was proposed to forecast China’s natural gas imports. Compared with GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) model, the proposed new model performed better in the simulation process and bore smaller mean relative percentage error when used in simulating China’s natural gas imports from 2011 to 2019. Then, the new model was employed to forecast China’s natural gas imports from 2020 to 2022. The results showed that China’s natural gas imports would continue to grow rapidly over the next three years. Therefore, in order to strike a balance between the natural gas supply and demand in the future and avoid overdependence on imports, the Chinese government should take effective measures from both the supply and demand ends, such as making better use of shale gas, wind, and solar energy as well as reducing the industrial dependence on natural gas.

Forecasting for Chinese Natural Gas Supply and Demand and Solutions for the Optimization of the Supply and Demand Chain

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. 64-73
Author(s):  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Xiucheng Dong ◽  
Junchen Li ◽  
Shouhua Zhang ◽  
Yu Chi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Demand Chain ◽  
Gas Supply

Pendulum Policy: Natural Gas Forecasts and Canadian Energy Policy, 1969–1981

1983 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Bridger Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Policy Context ◽  
Future Supply ◽  
Major Project ◽  
Gas Supply

AbstractMajor energy policy decisions are usually based in part upon forecasts of energy supply and demand. However an examination of the Canadian National Energy Board's forecasts of natural gas supply and demand over the last decade indicates that these forecasts were not a reliable basis for policy decisions. An analysis of the policy context underlying those forecasts reveals that they were not neutral “best guess” estimates of future supply and demand, but instead closely reflected the policy context and major project proposals of the time. The reasons for this are rooted in the nature of forecasting techniques and the way that they are used by decision-makers. This, it is argued, has important implications for the use of energy forecasting in policy planning.

Forecasting the total energy consumption in China using a new-structure grey system model

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Zeng ◽  
Chengming Luo
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
System Model ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
Grey System Model

Purpose China is by far the world’s largest energy consumer and importer. Reasonably forecasting the trend of China’s total energy consumption (CTEC) is of great significance. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new-structure grey system model (NSGM (1, 1)) to forecast CTEC. Design/methodology/approach Two matrices for computing the parameters of NSGM (1, 1) were defined and the specific calculation formula was derived. Since the NSGM (1, 1) model increases the number of its background values, which improves the smoothness effect of the background value and weakens the effects of extreme values in the raw sequence on the model’s performance; hence it has better simulation and prediction performances than traditional grey models. Finally, NSGM (1, 1) was used to forecast China’s total energy consumption during 2016-2025. The forecast showed CTEC will grow rapidly in the next ten years. Findings Therefore, in order to meet the target of keeping CTEC under control at 4.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2020, Chinese government needs to take necessary measures such as transforming the economic development pattern and enhancing the energy utilization efficiency. Originality/value A new-structure grey forecasting model, NSGM (1, 1), is proposed in this paper, which improves the smoothness and weakens the effects of extreme values and has a better structure and performance than those of other grey models. The authors successfully employ the new model to simulate and forecast CTEC. The research findings could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and help energy exporters make rational energy yield plans.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA'S GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE

2003 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
A. Dickson ◽  
K. Noble
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
The Face ◽  
Level Building ◽  
Coal Seam Methane ◽  
Gas Supply

Concerns have been raised about the capacity for Australia’s natural gas supplies to keep pace with growing demand, particularly in eastern Australia. Specifically, it has been suggested that unless significant infrastructure investment is undertaken now the demand/supply balance situation in eastern Australia will deteriorate quickly as natural gas resources are depleted in the face of strongly growing demand.The purpose of this study is to examine whether and when supplies in eastern Australia are likely to fall short of growing demand.A modelling framework was developed by ABARE to examine these issues at a regional level, building on ABARE’s MARKAL model of the Australian energy system. The modelling framework includes representations of potential sources of natural gas and coal seam methane in Australia by basin, existing and proposed pipeline options and regional gas demands. A number of alternative supply side assumptions were also examined to evaluate their impact on the final results, including annual production rates from various basins and the availability of commercial and non-commercial reserves.

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