Forecasting the total energy consumption in China using a new-structure grey system model

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Zeng ◽  
Chengming Luo
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
System Model ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
Grey System Model

Purpose China is by far the world’s largest energy consumer and importer. Reasonably forecasting the trend of China’s total energy consumption (CTEC) is of great significance. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new-structure grey system model (NSGM (1, 1)) to forecast CTEC. Design/methodology/approach Two matrices for computing the parameters of NSGM (1, 1) were defined and the specific calculation formula was derived. Since the NSGM (1, 1) model increases the number of its background values, which improves the smoothness effect of the background value and weakens the effects of extreme values in the raw sequence on the model’s performance; hence it has better simulation and prediction performances than traditional grey models. Finally, NSGM (1, 1) was used to forecast China’s total energy consumption during 2016-2025. The forecast showed CTEC will grow rapidly in the next ten years. Findings Therefore, in order to meet the target of keeping CTEC under control at 4.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2020, Chinese government needs to take necessary measures such as transforming the economic development pattern and enhancing the energy utilization efficiency. Originality/value A new-structure grey forecasting model, NSGM (1, 1), is proposed in this paper, which improves the smoothness and weakens the effects of extreme values and has a better structure and performance than those of other grey models. The authors successfully employ the new model to simulate and forecast CTEC. The research findings could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and help energy exporters make rational energy yield plans.

Forecasting the total energy consumption in Ghana using grey models

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 488-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Kwadzo Katani
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Grey Verhulst Model ◽  
Verhulst Model ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to forecast the future trend of Ghana’s total energy consumption (GTEC) using two grey models, which are GM(1,1) and the grey Verhulst model. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs the use of Even model GM(1,1) and the grey Verhulst model to forecast GTEC for the next five years. Since various models were used, the margin for error is minimal, hence resulting in a better choice for forecasting the future. The forecast reveals that the GTEC for the next five years will increase rapidly. Findings The results reveal that the models can be used accurately to predict the total energy consumption smoothly. This will aid the government of Ghana to take necessary measures such as transforming the economic development pattern and enhancing the energy utilization efficiency since future patterns of energy consumed can be predicted. Research limitations/implications This research is meaningful to the government and all stakeholders in Ghana to help develop and appreciate the energy sector and its economic impact. This research is going to help government put in measures for efficient utilization of energy since results reveal an increase in energy consumption. Practical implications Research results could be used for development of the energy sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Ghana is a developing country and has great prospects in terms of boosting or resourcing its energy sector to meet future demands. The successfully explored models could aid the government of Ghana to formulate policies in the energy sector and generate future consumption plans.

GDP growth – energy consumption relationship: revisited

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 356-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usama Al-mulali
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in 82 developing countries categorized by region. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the goal of this study, the panel model was used taking the period 1990-2009. Findings – The Kao co-integration test results showed that both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption had a long-running relationship with all the economic sectors in all regions. Moreover, the FMOLS revealed that the renewable and non-renewable energy consumption had a long-run positive relationship with the economic sectors. However, the results also revealed that non-renewable energy consumption has a more significant effect on the economic sectors than the renewable energy consumption. In addition, the Granger causality showed the same results, that the causal relationship between the economic sectors and non-renewable energy consumption is more significant than the causal relationship between the economic sectors and renewable energy. Practical implications – The reason behind these results is that these regions still depend on fossil fuels to promote their economic growth. Fossil fuels basically contribute more than 80 per cent of their total energy consumption. Thus, the study recommends the developing countries to increase their investment on renewable energy projects to increase the share of the renewable energy of total energy consumption. Originality/value – This study is considered different from all the previous studies because it will investigate the disaggregate relationship between GDP and energy consumption (renewable and non-renewable) in East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and the Sub-Saharan African developing countries.

Energy savings potential of new aeration system: Full scale trials

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Lazić ◽  
V. Larsson ◽  
Å. Nordenborg
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Savings ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Aeration System ◽  
Fine Bubble ◽  
Aeration Control

The objective of this work is to decrease energy consumption of the aeration system at a mid-size conventional wastewater treatment plant in the south of Sweden where aeration consumes 44% of the total energy consumption of the plant. By designing an energy optimised aeration system (with aeration grids, blowers, controlling valves) and then operating it with a new aeration control system (dissolved oxygen cascade control and most open valve logic) one can save energy. The concept has been tested in full scale by comparing two treatment lines: a reference line (consisting of old fine bubble tube diffusers, old lobe blowers, simple DO control) with a test line (consisting of new Sanitaire Silver Series Low Pressure fine bubble diffusers, a new screw blower and the Flygt aeration control system). Energy savings with the new aeration system measured as Aeration Efficiency was 65%. Furthermore, 13% of the total energy consumption of the whole plant, or 21 000 €/year, could be saved when the tested line was operated with the new aeration system.

scholarly journals Correction to: Improvement of Grey System Model using Particle Swarm Optimization

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elvis Twumasi ◽  
Emmanuel Asuming Frimpong ◽  
Daniel Kwegyir ◽  
Denis Folitse
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Body Text ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
System Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Grey System Model

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors reported an error in the title and body text.

scholarly journals Energy Recovery Potential in Industrial and Municipal Wastewater Networks Using Micro-Hydropower in Spain

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 691
Author(s):  
Aida Mérida García ◽  
Juan Antonio Rodríguez Díaz ◽  
Jorge García Morillo ◽  
Aonghus McNabola
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Recovery ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Municipal Wastewater ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Recovery Potential

The use of micro-hydropower (MHP) for energy recovery in water distribution networks is becoming increasingly widespread. The incorporation of this technology, which offers low-cost solutions, allows for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions linked to energy consumption. In this work, the MHP energy recovery potential in Spain from all available wastewater discharges, both municipal and private industrial, was assessed, based on discharge licenses. From a total of 16,778 licenses, less than 1% of the sites presented an MHP potential higher than 2 kW, with a total power potential between 3.31 and 3.54 MW. This total was distributed between industry, fish farms and municipal wastewater treatment plants following the proportion 51–54%, 14–13% and 35–33%, respectively. The total energy production estimated reached 29 GWh∙year−1, from which 80% corresponded to sites with power potential over 15 kW. Energy-related industries, not included in previous investigations, amounted to 45% of the total energy potential for Spain, a finding which could greatly influence MHP potential estimates across the world. The estimated energy production represented a potential CO2 emission savings of around 11 thousand tonnes, with a corresponding reduction between M€ 2.11 and M€ 4.24 in the total energy consumption in the country.

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