scholarly journals Prediction of Income of Rural Residents Based on Markov Model under the Background of Rural Revitalization

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Xiaorong Li ◽  
Qianli Xing
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Rural Economy ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Rural Revitalization ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Real Value ◽  
Per Capita

The income of rural residents is not only an important indicator to measure the development of rural economy, but also a key factor in the livelihood of farmers. The accurate prediction of income of rural residents can provide data supporting for promoting rural revitalization strategy. This paper selects per capita disposable income of rural residents in China as the research object and uses the macrostatistical data from 2011 to 2020 to predict farmers’ income. Firstly, the grey prediction model is constructed, and the grey prediction value is corrected by Markov chain. The simulation value is compared with the real value. And the results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher. It shows that the results of using the grey Markov model to predict the income of rural residents in China from 2021 to 2025 are reliable. Finally, the article puts forward policy recommendations to promote the income of rural residents.

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint in Jilin Province of China Based on Grey Prediction Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 472 ◽  
pp. 899-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Gao ◽  
Qing Tao Xu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Ecological Capacity ◽  
Grey Prediction Model ◽  
Ecological Deficit ◽  
Gray Prediction ◽  
Per Capita

The paper calculates ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in the Jilin province during 1998 and 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory, and analyzes the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita, and obtains development prediction model of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita based on grey prediction model. The results indicate the ecological footprint per capita had increased continuously from 1.7841 hm2 per capita to 3.2013 hm2 per capita between 1998 and 2010. During this period, ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.3535 hm2 per capita to 1.3028 hm2 per capita. Ecological deficit had increased from 0.4306 hm2 per capita to 1.8985 hm2 per capita that showed that the development of Jilin province was in an unsustainable status. The gray prediction model shows the ecological footprint per capita in the Jilin province will increase from 3.4833 hm2 per capita to 5.7022 hm2 per capita between 2011 and 2020, ecological capacity per capita will drop from 1.2978 hm2 per capita to 1.2676 hm2 per capita and ecological deficit will increase from 2.1855 hm2 per capita to 4.4346 hm2 per capita.

scholarly journals Research on the Influencing Factors of the Willingness of New Professional Farmers to Participate in Skills Training and Its Promotion during the Development of Urban ModernAgriculture

CONVERTER ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 199-210
Author(s):  
Yixi Liu, Pingyan Guo, Zhiyao Ma, Chun Hu
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Skill Training ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Training Effect ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Technical Problems ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Rural Revitalization ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Times

Objective: Talent is the key factor in the implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy. Based on the willingness and influencing factors of new professional farmers to participate in skill training in the development of modern urban agriculture, this study seeks to study the education of professional farmers from the perspective of demand. Methods: Based on the questionnaire survey data of new vocational farmers in Wenzhou, this study systematically analyzed the current situation, training willingness, training methods, and training effect of new vocational training, and made quantitative statistical analysis of the original basic data. Combined with the characteristics of agricultural industry and post, this study empirically analyzed their perception of participating in skill training and the influencing factors. Results: The number of new vocational farmers willing to participate in training was significantly higher than that of farmers unwilling to participate in training. The frequency of technical problems encountered in agricultural production, the times of training, the evaluation of training effect, effect, cost, teacher level, hardware level, certificate, and other factors have a significant impact on the willingness of new vocational farmers to participate in skills training. Conclusion: This study proposes to build a vocational occupation education system to enhance the training intention of new occupation farmers. During the COVID-19, the innovative form of webcast sales realized the unification of technology and service.

Prediction Model of Micum Strength for Iron Ore Sinter

2011 ◽  
Vol 402 ◽  
pp. 476-479
Author(s):  
Wei Wang ◽  
Zhi Hui Xu ◽  
Long Long Yang ◽  
Zheng Liang Xue ◽  
Dong Nan Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Maximum Absolute Error ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Iron Ore Sinter ◽  
Real Value ◽  
The Law

Micum strength is an important indicator of quality of sinter; BP artificial neural network model is built to predict the strength of sinter drum. The neural network use the main factors that influence the sinter drum as input data, and output is Micum strength. Experiment results shows that the maximum absolute error between the Micum strength predicted by neural network and real value from the sinter plant is 0.3346, and the average absolute error is 0.1154. These prove that the prediction is accuracy. In addition, because of the "black box" characteristic of the neural network model, the neural network model can not give the law of how the various factors affect the micum strength of sinter ore, this paper also uses the model to analysis the law of how TFe, SiO2 content affect the micum strength. The results not only consist with the sintering theory, but also verify the validity of the model.

scholarly journals Spatial Differences in Carbon Intensity in Polish Households

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edyta Sidorczuk-Pietraszko
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Carbon Intensity ◽  
Greenhouse Gasses ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Per Capita

Knowledge about the driving forces behind greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions is crucial for informed and evidence-based policy towards mitigation of GHG emission and changing production and consumption patterns. Both national and regional-level authorities are capable of addressing their actions more effectively if they have information about the spatial distribution of phenomena related to the policies they conduct. In this context, the main aim of this paper is to explain the regional differences in carbon intensity in Poland. The differences in carbon intensity between regions and the national average were analysed using index decomposition analysis (IDA). Aggregate carbon intensity for regional economies as well as the carbon intensity of households was investigated. For both levels of analysis: total emissions and emission from households economic development is the key factor responsible for the inter-regional differences in carbon emission per capita. In the case of total emissions, the second important factor influencing these differences is the structure of the national power system, i.e., its concentration and the production of energy from fossil fuels. For households, disposable income per capita is a key factor of differences in CO2 emission per capita between regions. Higher households’ incomes contribute to higher emission per capita, mostly due to the shift in consumption towards more energy- and material-intensive goods. The contribution of energy emissivity is quite low and not as varied as in the case of income. This suggests that policy instruments targeted at the consumption of fuels can be rather uniform across regions, while more developed regions should also be subject to measures supporting less energy-intensive consumption. On the other hand, policy in less developed regions should prevent them from following the path of per capita emissions growth.

Analysis of Consumption of Rural Residents in Jilin Province Based on Hidden Markov Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 971-973 ◽  
pp. 2281-2284
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Qian Sun ◽  
Yan Hong Huang Fu ◽  
Chao Ran Li
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Future Situation ◽  
Estimation Function ◽  
Sample Interval

Analysis status consumption of residents according to the statistical data in the recently twenty years of rural residents in Jilin province the Engel Coefficient.Select the sample interval properly based on hidden markov model,modeled using MATLAB and estimate the transition probability between states using probability estimation function of MATLAB’s hidden markov model toolbox, contact probability estimation in Markov model toolbox function, and predicting the Engel Coefficients of rural residents in the province for the next ten years (2013-2022). Studies have shown that, using the hidden Markov model established by MATLAB can accurately predict the future situation of residents consumption.

Extended Theory of Planned Behaviour Modelfor Measuring Households’ Recycling Behaviour in Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 622-623 ◽  
pp. 1691-1695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goh Mei Ling ◽  
David Yoon Kin Tong ◽  
Elsadig Musa Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Theory Of Planned Behaviour ◽  
Recycling Rate ◽  
Planned Behaviour ◽  
Extended Theory ◽  
Behavioural Determinants ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Per Capita

Malaysia generates 0.8 kg waste per capita per day. Despite the recycling previous programmeslaunched, the national recycling rate was as low as 5%. Households’ involvement is expected to be the key factor to the success of recycling. Therefore, empirical study is needed to examineon the behavioural determinants of households’ recycling behaviour. The paper aims to extend the Theory of Planned Behaviour in predicting the households’ recycling behaviour. The paper will provide useful information and guidelines to the respective authorities in designingstrategies to encourage higher participation from households in the recycling programs.

Utilization of Hospital Services by the Elderly: Geriatric Crisis in one Canadian Single Payer System

1997 ◽  
Vol 10 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 42-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Bay ◽  
M. J. Long ◽  
J. C. Ross Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Average Length ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Elderly Persons ◽  
Hospital Services ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Single Payer ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relative Utilization

As the number and proportion of elderly persons in the Canadian population increase, utilization of health services by the elderly becomes a growing concern for health service insurers, financial managers and policy makers, as well as for care providers. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a study to analyse the use of hospital services by the elderly in Alberta since the introduction of a universal single payer health care insurance system in 1970. The study period coincides with the implementation of publicly-financed comprehensive medical and hospital insurance programmes for all Alberta residents, making it possible to perform historical and population-based utilization analyses. Thus the data used for the study included all hospital discharge abstracts generated by all Alberta hospitals from 1971 to 1991. Trends in hospital service utilization by the elderly in terms of total number of separations, patient-days, and per case measures such as average length of stay as well as per capita utilization rates were reviewed to identify utilization patterns over the study period. Further, relative per capita utilization measures, in comparison with the base year (1971), age group 15–44, male, metropolitan residents, were derived and historical trends identified. A series of regression analyses were carried out to estimate the effects of age, sex and origin on utilization rates. In addition, for the period of 1984–1991, Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) case weights were used to measure per capita and per case rates and to analyse historical relative utilization rates over the 8-year period. In general, there has been a significant decline in hospital utilization by Albertans under the publicly-financed single payer system, but utilization rates for the elderly have remained high, resulting in high relative utilization rates in comparison with other age groups. It was also noted that per capita utilization rates for rural residents were substantially higher than urban residents. It appears that these higher utilization rates by the elderly and rural residents in combination with tight bed and financial control by the government have been causing significant bed shortage problems for non-elderly elective patients in urban areas.

Analysis on Spatial Difference of the Rural Resident’s per Capita Net Income in Qinhuangdao City Based on ESDA

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3893-3898
Author(s):  
Yu Hong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Rural Economy ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Moran’S I

Based on the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and GIS technology, the spatial differences of the rural economic development level of Qinhuangdao city was investigated by adopting the rural resident’s per capita net income data at town level in Qinhuangdao city from 2007 to 2011. The results of global Moran’s I value for rural resident’s per capita net income at town level showed that there existed significant positive spatial autocorrelation and significant spatial aggregation in the spatial distribution of rural resident’s per capita net income. However, the global Moran’s I value showed a decreasing trend during 2007 to 2011, indicating an enlarged spatial disparity of rural economy at the town level. The results of the Moran scatter plots and LISA cluster maps of 2007 and 2011 showed that most of towns were characterized by positive local spatial association , ie. They were located in the HH or the LL quadrant. The significant HH towns were mostly to be found in the south of Qinhuangdao city, Haigang district, Changli county, Lulong county. The significant LL towns were mostly to be found in the Qinglong county, north of Qinhuangdao city.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document