scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Price Volatility Characteristics of China’s Soybean Futures Market Based on ARIMA-GJR-GARCH Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yang Xu ◽  
Zhihao Xia ◽  
Chuanhui Wang ◽  
Weifeng Gong ◽  
Xia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Volume Coefficient ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

As the main force in the futures market, agricultural product futures occupy an important position in the China’s market. Taking the representative soybean futures in Dalian Commodity Futures Market of China as the research object, the relationship between price fluctuation characteristics and trading volume and open position was studied. The empirical results show that the price volatility of China’s soybean futures market has a “leverage effect.” The trading volume and open interest are divided into expected parts and unexpected parts, which are added to the conditional variance equation. The expected trading volume coefficient is estimated. Also, the estimated value of the expected open interest coefficient is, respectively, smaller than the estimated value of the unexpected trading volume coefficient and the estimated value of the unexpected open interest coefficient. Therefore, the impact of expected trading volume on the price fluctuation of China’s soybean futures market is less than that of unexpected trading volume on the price of soybean futures market. This paper adds transaction volume as an information flow to the variance of the conditional equation innovatively and also observes transaction volume as the relationship between conditional variance and price fluctuations.

scholarly journals Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 342
Author(s):  
Lin Xie ◽  
Jiahua Liao ◽  
Haiting Chen ◽  
Xuefei Yan ◽  
Xinyan Hu
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
The Impact

China aims to utilize the futures market to stabilize agricultural product price fluctuation by quantifying the effects of risk transfer and price discovery. However, the role of futurization has been questioned and even posited as the cause of drastic fluctuations in spot market prices. This research aims to clarify the impact of futurization on the price fluctuation of agricultural products and to provide policy reference for the development of the agricultural futures market through the research. Here, we examine the spot price data for apples and use Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) and GARCH models to estimate the impact of apple futures on the volatility of spot prices. Our findings demonstrate that the launch of China’s apple futures did not increase the volatility of apple spot prices; that is, futurization was not the cause of skyrocketing apple spot prices. In the long term, our results suggest that futures will help reduce the volatility of apple spot prices and that the introduction of futures will ultimately reduce the price volatility of agricultural products.

scholarly journals How Does Suppliers’ Fairness Affect the Relationship Quality of Agricultural Product Supply Chains?

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuling Sun ◽  
Zehua Liu ◽  
Hui Yang
Keyword(s):  
Relationship Quality ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Procedural Fairness ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Fairness Perception ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributive Fairness ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Although many studies have suggested that the relationship between different supply chain members significantly affects agricultural product quality, suppliers’ perceptions of fairness, which greatly influence their decisions on building the relationship quality, are often overlooked. Particularly, the empirical evidence to investigate the impacts of suppliers’ fairness on the relationship quality and the factors that affect the suppliers’ fairness is missing, and therefore this knowledge gap needs to be filled by new research. Herein, we conducted a survey of 450 agricultural product suppliers and systemically analyzed the impact of antecedents on fairness perception and the impact of fairness perception on relationship quality. In addition, we developed a structural equation model and found that information sharing and price satisfaction had significantly positive effects on procedural fairness and distributive fairness, respectively. Furthermore, our studies demonstrated that procedural fairness is more important in improving the relationship quality than distributive fairness. However, supplier dependence is another important impact factor, and it greatly decreases the positive effects of suppliers’ fairness on relationship quality. In summary, the study results provide several managerial implications and extend our understanding of the importance of suppliers’ fairness in the relationship quality, which involves product development with respect to the supplier’s performance.

The impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity, and volatility in agricultural commodity markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 571-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Volkenand ◽  
Guenther Filler ◽  
Martin Odening
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Order Imbalance ◽  
New Information ◽  
Agricultural Futures ◽  
Best Offer ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity and price volatility in agricultural futures markets on an intraday basis. The authors examine whether order imbalance is more powerful to explain variations in asset prices compared to other indicators of trading activity, particularly trading volume.Design/methodology/approachUsing Chicago Mercantile Exchange best bid best offer data, the impact of order imbalance is analyzed via regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for corn, wheat, soy, live cattle and lean hogs in March 2008 and March 2016.FindingsResults confirm the positive relation between order imbalance and returns as well as between order imbalance and price volatility as suggested by market microstructure models. Order imbalance, however, does not generally outperform trading volume as an explanatory variable.Practical implicationsFor some contracts, returns can be predicted using lagged order imbalance. This offers the opportunity to derive profitable trading strategies.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between order imbalance and returns, liquidity and volatility for agricultural commodity futures on an intraday basis, accounting for the increased trading volume and for the high speed at which new information enters the market in an electronic trading environment.

Dividend policy and stock price volatility of industrial products firms in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rozaimah Zainudin ◽  
Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan ◽  
Chee Hong Yet
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Industrial Products ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between stock price volatility (SPV) and dividend policy of industrial products firms listed on Bursa Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach The sample comprises 166 industrial products public-listed firms covering a time span from year 2003 to 2012. Using Baskin’s framework, firm’s SPV is related to dividend payout, controlling for earnings volatility, firm size, leverage and growth of assets. Further, the impact of the global financial crisis on the relationship between SPV and the tested variables is examined. Findings Earning volatility significantly explains SPV of industrial product firms during the crisis period, while dividend payout ratio (PR) predominantly influences volatility during pre- and post-crisis sub-periods. The empirical results indicate that dividend policy is a strong predictor of SPV of industrial products firms in Malaysia, particularly during the post-crisis period. Originality/value The paper explores the firm’s SPV and dividend policy for a new set of data focussing on industrial products firms listed on the Malaysian Stock Exchange.

Volatility persistence and trading volume in an emerging futures market

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratap Chandra Pati ◽  
Prabina Rajib
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Futures Contract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to estimate time‐varying conditional volatility, and examine the extent to which trading volume, as a proxy for information arrival, explain the persistence of futures market volatility using National Stock Exchange S&P CRISIL NSE Index Nifty index futures.Design/methodology/approachTo estimate the volatility and capture the stylized facts of fat‐tail distribution, volatility clustering, leverage effect, and mean‐reversion in futures returns, appropriate ARMA‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) and ARMA‐EGARCH models with generalized error distribution have been used. The ARMA‐EGARCH model is augmented by including contemporaneous and lagged trading volume to determine their contribution to time‐varying conditional volatility.FindingsThe paper finds evidence of leverage effect, which indicates that negative shocks increase the futures market volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude. In addition, the results indicate that inclusion of both contemporaneous and lagged trading volume in the GARCH model reduces the persistence in volatility, but contemporaneous volume provides a greater reduction than lagged volume. Nevertheless, the GARCH effect does not completely vanish.Practical implicationsResearch findings have important implications for the traders, regulatory bodies, and practitioners. A positive volume‐price volatility relationship implies that a new futures contract will be successful only to the extent that there is enough price uncertainty associated with the underlying asset. Higher trading volume causes higher volatility; so, it suggests the need for greater regulatory restrictions.Originality/valueEquity derivatives are relatively new phenomena in Indian capital market. This paper extends and updates the existing empirical research on the relationship between futures price volatility and volume in the emerging Indian capital market using improved methodology and recent data set.

scholarly journals The Impact of Futures Price Volatility to Spot Market : Case of Coffee in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anis Erma Wulandari ◽  
Harianto Harianto ◽  
Bustanul Arifin ◽  
Heny K Suwarsinah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Futures Price ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia is the world 4th largest coffee producer after Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia with export potential and higher national consumption concluded in 2017 while the coffee production was relatively stagnant. This was led the producer to not only the production risk but also the price risk which then emphasize the importance of futures markets existence as price risk management. This study is performed to examine the impact of futures price volatility to spot market using ARCH-GARCH toward primary data of coffee futures and spot prices of 1172 trading days starting from January 2014 to June 2018. The ARCH-GARCH analysis result indicates that futures price volatility and monetary variables are impacting the volatility of spot price. Arabica spot price volatility is impacted by volatility of Arabica futures price, inflation and exchange rate while Robusta spot price is impacted by Robusta futures price volatility and exchange rate. This is confirming that futures market plays dominant role in spot price discovery. Local futures and spot prices are also found to be significantly influenced by volatility of offshore futures prices which indicates that emerging country futures market is actually influenced by offshore futures market which the price itself used as price reference.

scholarly journals The Price-Trading Volume Relationship in the Brazilian Stock Market, the Impact of Stock Lending and a Role for Technical Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 631
Author(s):  
Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente ◽  
Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente ◽  
Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Volume Relationship ◽  
Current Price ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Covariance

We examine the relationship between price and volume in the Brazilian stock market. It tests the “V-shaped relationship” developed by Karpoff (1987), identified in several empirical papers for the U.S. market. This is expressed by positive covariance between a stock’s market turnover and the absolute value of that stock’s price change in the same period. This would contradict the implication from weak market efficiency that current price would impound all information. We analyze daily data for 47 stocks covering the period from January 04, 2010 to June 28, 2013. The results indicate that the V-shaped relationship is significant.

The Impact of Trading Volumes by Trader Types in the KOSPI200 Futures Market

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Chang Hyeon Yun ◽  
Lee Seong Gu
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Persistent Effect ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
The Impact

In this study we examine the relationships between trader-type-specific trading volumes and the price volatility of the KOSPI200 stock index futures over the period of July 1997 through December 2001. The principal findings of this study are that the changes in trading volumes by foreign investors are positively associated with the return and the volatility of the index futures market. When trading volumes are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, unexpected shocks have more persistent effect on the volatility of the market than expected component. Meanwhile, individuals and domestic commercial investor seem to follow the lead made by foreign investors.

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