scholarly journals An Economic Forecasting Method Based on the LightGBM-Optimized LSTM and Time-Series Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Jiehua Lv ◽  
Chao Wang ◽  
Wei Gao ◽  
Qiumin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Stock Price Prediction

Stock price prediction is very important in financial decision-making, and it is also the most difficult part of economic forecasting. The factors affecting stock prices are complex and changeable, and stock price fluctuations have a certain degree of randomness. If we can accurately predict stock prices, regulatory authorities can conduct reasonable supervision of the stock market and provide investors with valuable investment decision-making information. As we know, the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) algorithm is mainly used in large-scale data mining competitions, but it has not yet been used to predict the stock market. Therefore, this article uses this algorithm to predict the closing price of stocks. As an emerging research field, LSTM is superior to traditional time-series models and machine learning models and is suitable for stock market analysis and forecasting. However, the general LSTM model has some shortcomings, so this paper designs a LightGBM-optimized LSTM to realize short-term stock price forecasting. In order to verify its effectiveness compared with other deep network models such as RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit), the LightGBM-LSTM, RNN, and GRU are respectively used to predict the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes. Experimental results show that the LightGBM-LSTM has the highest prediction accuracy and the best ability to track stock index price trends, and its effect is better than the GRU and RNN algorithms.

scholarly journals Systematic optimization of Long Short-Term Memory model for predicting NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL) during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Dong ◽  
Amber Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Predicting stock prices has been both challenging and controversial. Since it first spread through the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the stock market in a multitude of ways. Thus, stock price prediction has become even more challenging. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been widely used in many fields to predict financial time series. In this study, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a special form of RNN, is used to predict the stock market direction for the US airline industry by using NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL). The LSTM model was optimized through changing different hyperparameters of the model architecture to find the best combination for increased accuracy and performance evaluated by several metrics, including raw RMSE (3.51) and MAPA (4.6%), and very high MAPA (95.4%) and R^2 (0.978).

scholarly journals A Novel Approach to Short-Term Stock Price Movement Prediction using Transfer Learning

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 4745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi-Thu Nguyen ◽  
Seokhoon Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Training Samples ◽  
Korean Market

Stock price prediction has always been an important application in time series predictions. Recently, deep neural networks have been employed extensively for financial time series tasks. The network typically requires a large amount of training samples to achieve high accuracy. However, in the stock market, the number of data points collected on a daily basis is limited in one year, which leads to insufficient training samples and accordingly results in an overfitting problem. Moreover, predicting stock price movement is affected by various factors in the stock market. Therefore, choosing appropriate input features for prediction models should be taken into account. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel framework, named deep transfer with related stock information (DTRSI), which takes advantage of a deep neural network and transfer learning. First, a base model using long short-term memory (LSTM) cells is pre-trained based on a large amount of data, which are obtained from a number of different stocks, to optimize initial training parameters. Second, the base model is fine-tuned by using a small amount data from a target stock and different types of input features (constructed based on the relationship between stocks) in order to enhance performance. Experiments are conducted with data from top-five companies in the Korean market and the United States (US) market from 2012 to 2018 in terms of the highest market capitalization. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of transfer learning and using stock relationship information in helping to improve model performance, and the proposed approach shows remarkable performance (compared to other baselines) in terms of prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Evolutionary Framework with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network for Stock Price Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Hongying Zheng ◽  
Hongyu Wang ◽  
Jianyong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Memory Network ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

As an important part of the social economy, stock market plays an important role in economic development, and accurate prediction of stock price is important as it can lower the risk of investment decision-making. However, the task of predicting future stock price is very difficult. This difficulty arises from stocks with nonstationary behavior and without any explicit form. In this paper, we propose a novel bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network (BiLSTM) framework called evolutionary BiLSTM (EBiLSTM) for the prediction of stock price. In the framework, three independent BiLSTMs correspond to different objective functions and act as mutation individuals, then their respective losses for evolution are calculated, and finally, the optimal objective function is identified by the minimum of loss. Since BiLSTM is effective in the prediction of time series and the evolutionary framework can get an optimal solution for multiple objectives, their combination well adapts to the nonstationary behavior of stock prices. Experiments on several stock market indexes demonstrate that EBiLSTM can achieve better prediction performance than others without the evolutionary operator.

scholarly journals Implementation of Long Short-Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units on Grouped Time-Series Data to Predict Stock Prices Accurately

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armin Lawi ◽  
Hendra Mesra ◽  
Supri Amir
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract Stocks are an attractive investment option since they can generate large profits compared to other businesses. The movement of stock price patterns on the stock market is very dynamic; thus it requires accurate data modeling to forecast stock prices with a low error rate. Forecasting models using Deep Learning are believed to be able to accurately predict stock price movements using time-series data, especially the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithms. However, several previous implementation studies have not been able to obtain convincing accuracy results. This paper proposes the implementation of the forecasting method by classifying the movement of time-series data on company stock prices into three groups using LSTM and GRU. The accuracy of the built model is evaluated using loss functions of Rooted Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the performance evaluation of both architectures is accurate in which GRU is always superior to LSTM. The highest validation for GRU was 98.73% (RMSE) and 98.54% (MAPE), while the LSTM validation was 98.26% (RMSE) and 97.71% (MAPE).

scholarly journals A Hybrid Prediction Method for Stock Price Using LSTM and Ensemble EMD

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Yang Yujun ◽  
Yang Yimei ◽  
Xiao Jianhua
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Hybrid Prediction ◽  
Original Stock ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Comparison Results

The stock market is a chaotic, complex, and dynamic financial market. The prediction of future stock prices is a concern and controversial research issue for researchers. More and more analysis and prediction methods are proposed by researchers. We proposed a hybrid method for the prediction of future stock prices using LSTM and ensemble EMD in this paper. We use comprehensive EMD to decompose the complex original stock price time series into several subsequences which are smoother, more regular and stable than the original time series. Then, we use the LSTM method to train and predict each subsequence. Finally, we obtained the prediction values of the original stock price time series by fused the prediction values of several subsequences. In the experiment, we selected five data to fully test the performance of the method. The comparison results with the other four prediction methods show that the predicted values show higher accuracy. The hybrid prediction method we proposed is effective and accurate in future stock price prediction. Hence, the hybrid prediction method has practical application and reference value.

scholarly journals Comparison of exponential time series alignment and time series alignment using artificial neural networks by example of prediction of future development of stock prices of a specific company

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 01006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Horák ◽  
Tomáš Krulický
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Exponential Time ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Time Series Alignment

Accurate stock price prediction is very difficult in today's economy. Accurate prediction plays an important role in helping investors improve return on equity. As a result, a number of new approaches and technologies have logically evolved in recent years to predict stock prices. One is also the method of artificial neural networks, which have many advantages over conventional methods. The aim of this paper is to compare a method of exponential time series alignment and time series alignment using artificial neural networks as tools for predicting future stock price developments on the example of the company Unipetrol. Time series alignment is performed using artificial neural networks, exponential alignment of time series, and then a comparison of time series of predictions of future stock price trends predicted using the most successful neural network and price prediction calculated by exponential time series alignment is performed. Predictions for 62 business days were obtained. The realistic picture of further possible development is surprisingly given based on the exponential alignment of time series.

scholarly journals STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING MARKOV CHAINS ANALYSIS WITH VARYING STATE SPACE ON DATA FROM THE CZECH REPUBLIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-155
Author(s):  
Milan Svoboda ◽  
Pavla Říhová
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
State Space ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Transaction Fees

The article describes empirical research that deals with short-term stock price prediction. The aim of this study is to use this prediction to create successful business models. A business model that outperforms the stock market, represented by the Buy and Hold strategy, is considered to be successful. A stochastic model based on Markov chains analysis with varying state space is used for short-term stock price prediction. The varying state spate is defined based on multiples of the moving standard deviation. A total of 80 state space models were calculated for the moving standard deviation with 5-step lengths from 10 to 30 in combination with the standard deviation multiples from 0.5 to 2.0 with the step of 0.1. The efficiency of the business models was verified for 3 long-term, liquid stocks of the Czech stock market, namely the stocks of KB, CEZ, and O2 within a 14-year period – from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2019. Business models perform best when they use a state space defined on the length of a moving standard deviation between 15 and 30 in combination with multiples of the standard deviation between 1.1 and 1.2. Business models based on these parameters outperform the passive Buy and Hold strategy. In fact, they outperform the Buy and Hold strategy for both the entire period under review and the yielded five-year periods (including transaction fees). The only exception is the five-year periods covering 2015 for O2 stocks. After the end of the uncertainty period caused by unclear intentions of the new majority stockholder, the stock price rose sharply. These results are in conflict with the efficient markets theory and suggest that in the period under review, the Czech stock market was not effective in any form.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 386-389
Author(s):  
Warade Kalyani Gopal ◽  
Jawale Mamta Pandurang ◽  
Tayade Pratiksha Devaram ◽  
Dr. Dinesh D. Patil
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Mathematical Functions ◽  
Stock Market Prediction ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Future Value ◽  
A Company ◽  
Stock Values

In Stock Market Prediction, the aim is to predict for future value of the financial stocks of a company. The recent trend in stock market prediction technologies is the use of machine learning which makes predictions based on the values of current stock market by training on their previous values. Machine learning itself employs different models to make prediction easier. The paper focuses on Regression and LSTM based Machine learning to predict stock values. Factors considered are open, close, low, high and volume. In order to predict market movement, the stock prices and stock indicators in addition to the news related to these stocks. Most of the previous work in this industry focused on either classifying the released market news and demonstrating their effect on the stock price or focused on the historical price movement and predicted their future movement. In this work, we propose an automated trading system that integrates mathematical functions, machine learning, and other external factors such as news’ sentiments for the purpose of a better stock prediction accuracy and issuing profitable trades. The aim to determine the price of a certain stock for the coming end-of-day considering the first several trading hours of the day.

scholarly journals LQ45 Stock Index Prediction using k-Nearest Neighbors Regression

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 2388-2391 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
The Capital Market

The capital market is an organized financial system consisting of commercial banks, intermediary institutions in the financial sector and all outstanding securities. One of the benefits of the capital market is creating opportunities for the community to participate in economic activities, especially in investing. In daily stock trading activities, stock prices tend to have fluctuated. Therefore, stock price prediction is needed to help investors make decisions when they want to buy or sell their shares. One asset for investment is shares. One of the stock price indices that attracts many investors is the LQ45 stock index on the Indonesian stock exchange. One of the algorithms that can be used to predict is the k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) algorithm. In the previous study, kNN had a higher accuracy than the moving average method of 14.7%. This study uses kNN regression method because it predicts numerical data. The results of the research in making the LQ45 stock index prediction application have been successfully built. The highest accuracy achieved reaches 91.81% by WSKT share.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 375-381
Author(s):  
Sai Manoj Cheruvu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Prediction Time ◽  
A Company ◽  
Series Technique

Abstract: Predicting Stock price of a company has been a challenge for analysts due to the fluctuations and its changing nature with respect to time. This paper attempts to predict the stock prices using Time series technique that proposes to observe various changes in a given variable with respect to time and is appropriate for making predictions in financial sector [1] as the stock prices are time variant. Keywords: Stock prices, Analysis, Fluctuations, Prediction, Time series, Time variant

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