Abstract P365: Turning in the Mortality Trends from Coronary Heart Disease in Japan: Age-Specific Analysis of the Regional Difference in Japan from 1969 to 2007

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akira Okayama ◽  
Nagako Okuda ◽  
Hirotsugu Ueshima
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Younger Generation

Objective: To examine the recent mortality trends of coronary heart disease (CHD), we compared the age specific CHD mortality trends in Japan and in urban and in the rest of Japan, respectively using Vital Statistics. Methods and Results: We compared CHD mortality rates in all Japan, the urban population (20 million) and in the rest of Japan (100 million) from 1969 to 2007 for 30 to 69 years of age. In 1969 [[Unable to Display Character: &#8209;]] 1970, the age[[Unable to Display Character: &#8209;]]adjusted CHD mortality rate was 57.7 per 100,000 for men and 25.9 for women in Japan, and was the same as those of the urban population (59.2 for men and 26.8 for women) and the rest of Japan (57.3 for men and 25.9 for women). The CHD mortality rate in the rest of Japan decreased to 28.4 for men and 7.6 for women in 2006-2007. Although CHD mortality rate in the urban population also decreased to 39.9 for men and 10.1 for women in 2006 - 2007, the decline was much smaller. Trends in age-specific CHD mortality rates was compared between Period I (1969 - 1978), Period II (1981- 1994) and period III (1996 - 2007). Among men in Japan and in the rest of Japan, the decline in the mortality rate for the 30 to 49[[Unable to Display Character: &#8209;]]year[[Unable to Display Character: &#8209;]]old[[Unable to Display Character: &#8209;]]age group was initially observed in Period I and II, and has turned to increase significantly (p<0.001) in the Period III while continuous declining trends in 50-59 and 60-69 year old-age-group. Trends in urban population went ahead, changes in the declining trends was observed both the Period II and III among 30-49 year-old-age group and period III among 50-59 year-old-age group while continuous decline was observed among 60-69 year-old-age group. Similar trends were observed among women. These trends coincide with the increase in the fat intake mainly among younger generation. Conclusions: Observed increase in CHD mortality of men in Japan among younger generation proceeded by those in the urban population may predict the future increase in CHD mortality in Japan.

Abstract P401: Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends In England And Wales: A Bayesian Age Period Cohort Forecast Up To 2030

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Guzman Castillo ◽  
Duncan Gillespie ◽  
Kirk Allen ◽  
Piotr Bandosz ◽  
Volker Schmid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Underlying Assumption ◽  
Obesity And Diabetes ◽  
The Future

Background: Although the rate of death (mortality) from Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) has halved since the 1970s, CHD remains a major cause of all-cause mortality in the UK. Furthermore, population ageing plus recent increases in obesity and diabetes may soon increase total CHD deaths. Predictions of future CHD mortality are thus potentially problematic. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two conventional but dramatically contrasting assumptions. Materials and Methods: In SCENARIO A, we used a conventional counterfactual, assuming that the last-observed CHD mortality rates (ONS) from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030.The future number of deaths was then calculated by applying those rates onto 2012-2030 population estimates. In SCENARIO B, we assumed that the recent trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. We used a well-established hierarchical Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) model, which works under the assumption that variability in CHD mortality can be explained by a combination of age, period and cohort effects. We fitted this model to the observed CHD mortality from 1979 to 2011 and then continued the linear trends in age, period and cohort effects up to 2030. We then used the BAPC model to predict mortality rates in 2012-2030, and then applied these rates to population projections to compute future deaths. Results: In scenario A, by assuming that 2011 mortality rates would continue at that level, the number of CHD deaths would increase 61.5% (39,597 of 64,323) by 2030. In scenario B, by assuming recent trends continued, the number of deaths would decrease 56.7% (-36,500 of 64,323) by 2030. This substantial decrease would occur despite a predicted slowing of mortality decline in middle aged groups. Conclusion: The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The underlying assumption of a commonly used mortality counterfactual thus appears slightly dubious. By contrast, the BAPC model offers a far more plausible prediction of future trends by simultaneously considering age, period and cohort effects and projecting each into the future. Thus, despite population ageing, we estimated that the number of CHD deaths would halve again between 2011 and 2030. Even so, shifts in population risk factors might still cause CHD mortality to move away from a trajectory of decline. There is no room for complacency and the promotion of cardiovascular health remains a top policy priority.

scholarly journals Coronary heart disease incidence still decreased between 2006 and 2014 in France, except in young age groups: Results from the French MONICA registries

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 1178-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aline Meirhaeghe ◽  
Michèle Montaye ◽  
Katia Biasch ◽  
Samantha Huo Yung Kai ◽  
Marie Moitry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Coronary Event ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Acute Coronary Event ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Men And Women

Background Over the past few decades decreases in coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality rates have been observed throughout the western world. We sought to determine whether the acute coronary event rates had decreased between 2006 and 2014 among French adults, and whether there were sex and age-specific differences. Methods We examined the French MONICA population-based registries monitoring the Lille urban area in northern France, the Bas-Rhin county in north-eastern France and the Haute Garonne county in south-western France. All acute coronary events among men and women aged 35–74 were collected. Results Over the study period, the age-standardised attack rates decreased in both men (annual percentage change −1.5%, P = 0.0006) and women (annual percentage change −2.1%, P = 0.002). Also, the age-standardised incidence rates decreased in both men (annual percentage change −0.9%, P = 0.03) and women (annual percentage change −1.8%, P = 0.002) due to decreases in the 65–74 year age group. In men, age-standardised mortality rates decreased by 3.5% per year ( P = 0.0004), especially in the 55–64 and 65–74 year age groups. In women, these rates decreased by 4.3% per year ( P = 0.0009), particularly in the 35–44 and 65–74 year age groups. We also observed significant decreases in case fatality among both men (annual percentage change −1.7%, P < 0.0001) and women (annual percentage change −1.9%, P = 0.009). Conclusions Downward trends in acute coronary event attack, incidence and mortality rates were observed between 2006 and 2014 in men and women. This effect was age dependent and was primarily due to decreases in the 65–74 year age group. There were no substantial declines in the younger age groups except for mortality in young women. Prevention measures still need to be strengthened, particularly in young adults.

scholarly journals Coronary heart disease mortality is decreasing in Argentina, and Colombia, but keeps increasing in Mexico: a time trend study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Arroyo-Quiroz ◽  
Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez ◽  
Martin O'Flaherty ◽  
Maria Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Lina Sofia Palacio Mejia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Disease Mortality ◽  
Garbage Code

Abstract Background: Mortality rates due to coronary heart disease (CHD) have decreased in most countries, but increased in low and middle-income countries. Few studies have analyzed the trends of coronary heart disease mortality in Latin America, specifically the trends in young-adults and the effect of correcting these comparisons for nonspecific causes of death (garbage codes). The objective of this study was to describe and compare standardized, age-specific, and garbage-code corrected mortality trends for coronary heart disease from 1985 to 2015 in Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico. Methods: Deaths from coronary heart disease were grouped by country, year of registration, sex, and 10-year age bands to calculate age-adjusted and age and sex-specific rates for adults aged ≥25. We corrected for garbage-codes using the methodology proposed by the Global Burden of Disease. Finally, we fitted Joinpoint regression models.Results: In 1985, age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population were 136.6 in Argentina, 160.6 in Colombia, and 87.51 in Mexico; by 2015 rates decreased 51% in Argentina and 6.5% in Colombia, yet increased by 61% in Mexico, where an upward trend in mortality was observed in young adults. Garbage-code corrections produced increases in mortality rates, particularly in Argentina with approximately 80 additional deaths per 100,000, 14 in Colombia and 13 in Mexico.Conclusions: Latin American countries are at different stages of the cardiovascular disease epidemic. Garbage code correction produce large changes in the mortality rates in Argentina, yet smaller in Mexico and Colombia, suggesting garbage code corrections may be needed for specific countries. While coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is falling in Argentina, modest falls in Colombia and substantial increases in Mexico highlight the need for the region to propose and implement population-wide prevention policies.

scholarly journals Coronary heart disease mortality is decreasing in Argentina and Colombia, but keeps increasing in Mexico: a time trend study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Arroyo-Quiroz ◽  
Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez ◽  
Martin O'Flaherty ◽  
Maria Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Lina Sofia Palacio Mejia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Disease Mortality ◽  
Garbage Code

Abstract Background: Mortality rates due to coronary heart disease (CHD) have decreased in most countries, but increased in low and middle-income countries. Few studies have analyzed the trends of coronary heart disease mortality in Latin America, specifically the trends in young-adults and the effect of correcting these comparisons for nonspecific causes of death (garbage codes). Objective: To describe and compare standardized, age-specific, and garbage-code corrected mortality trends for coronary heart disease from 1985 to 2015 in Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico. Methods: Deaths from coronary heart disease were grouped by country, year of registration, sex, and 10-year age bands to calculate age-adjusted and age and sex-specific rates for adults aged ≥25. We corrected for garbage-codes using the methodology proposed by the Global Burden of Disease. Finally, we fitted Joinpoint regression models. Results: In 1985, age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population were 136.6 in Argentina, 160.6 in Colombia, and 87.51 in Mexico; by 2015 rates decreased 51% in Argentina and 6.5% in Colombia, yet increased by 61% in Mexico, where an upward trend in mortality was observed in young adults. Garbage-code corrections produced increases in mortality rates, particularly in Argentina with approximately 80 additional deaths per 100,000, 14 in Colombia and 13 in Mexico. Conclusions: Latin American countries are at different stages of the cardiovascular disease epidemic. Garbage code correction produce large changes in the mortality rates in Argentina, yet smaller in Mexico and Colombia, suggesting garbage code corrections may be needed for specific countries. While coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is falling in Argentina, modest falls in Colombia and substantial increases in Mexico highlight the need for the region to propose and implement population-wide prevention policies.

Abstract P115: Better Methodologies to Compare Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends in Latin American Countries: Argentina, Colombia and Mexico From 1985 to 2012

Circulation ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria C Arroyo Quiroz ◽  
Martin O’Flaherty ◽  
Hector Lamadrid-Figueroa ◽  
Maria L Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Simon Capewell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
P Value ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Garbage Code ◽  
Age And Sex

Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. CHD mortality rates have decreased in most high-income countries, but increased in some Latin-American countries. CHD mortality rates have plateaued among young adults (<55 years) in the US, UK and Australia, but trends in Latin-America are largely unknown. Few studies have analyzed trends in age and sex-specific CHD mortality rates in this region, and almost none has assured data quality by correcting for garbage codes (ICD codes for nonspecific causes of death) as recommended by WHO. Objective: To describe and compare standardized, age-specific and garbage-code corrected mortality trends for coronary heart disease (CHD) from 1985 to 2012 in three contrasting Latin American countries. Methods: CHD deaths (1985-2012) in Argentina, Colombia and Mexico were grouped by calendar year, sex and 10-year age bands to calculate the overall age-adjusted and age and sex specific mortality rates for adults aged ≥25 years. We corrected for garbage-codes for the three countries (1997-2012) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology. We then fitted Joinpoint regression models, using the original and garbage code corrected rates, to estimate the annual percent change (APC) and detect points in time when significant changes in the trends occurred. Results: In 2012, age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 were 65.3 in Argentina, 132.4 in Colombia and 130.3 in Mexico. Compared to 1985, by 2012 mortality fell by 17.5% in Colombia and 52.5% in Argentina. The largest annual decreases in mortality rates were observed in Argentina from 1988-1994 (APC=-5.7 p-value<0.01). The declines in Colombia were constant and smaller for the full period (APC=-0.4 p-value<0.01). CHD mortality rose by 48.9% in Mexico, particularly after 2000. Mortality rates increased in both men and women, particularly in younger men (<39 years) and older women (>60 years). Application of the garbage code corrections produced dramatic increases in mortality rates, more in women than men, and particularly in Argentina: approximately 80 additional deaths per 100,000 (compared with just 14 additional deaths per 10 5 in Colombia and 13 per 10 5 in Mexico). Conclusions: Different Latin American countries demonstrate dramatically different CHD epidemiology. Mortality rates increased after correcting for garbage code misclassification. Although CHD mortality is falling in Argentina, the modest falls in Colombia and substantial rises in Mexico highlight the region’s urgent need for effective, population-wide prevention policies.

scholarly journals Coronary heart disease and stroke mortality trends in Brazil 2000–2018

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0253639
Author(s):  
Patrícia Vasconcelos Leitão Moreira ◽  
Adélia da Costa Pereira de Arruda Neta ◽  
Sara Silva Ferreira ◽  
Flávia Emília Leite Lima Ferreira ◽  
Rafaela Lira Formiga Cavalcanti de Lima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Average Annual Rate ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Age Range

Objective To analyse the mortality rate trend due to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the adult population in Brazil. Methods From 2000 to 2018, a time trend study with joinpoint regression was conducted among Brazilian men and women aged 35 years and over. Age-adjusted and age, sex specific CHD and stroke trend rate mortality were measured. Results Crude mortality rates from CHD decreased in both sexes and in all age groups, except for males over 85 years old with an increase of 1.78%. The most accentuated declining occurred for age range 35 to 44 years for both men (52.1%) and women (53.2%) due to stroke and in men (33%) due to CHD, and among women (32%) aged 65 to 74 years due to CHD. Age-adjusted mortality rates for CHD and stroke decreased in both sexes, in the period from 2000 to 2018. The average annual rate for CHD went from 97.09 during 2000–2008 to 78.75 during 2016–2018, whereas the highest percentage of change was observed during 2008 to 2013 (APC -2.5%; 95% CI). The average annual rate for stroke decreased from 104.96 to 69.93, between 2000–2008 and 2016–2018, and the highest percentage of change occurred during the periods from 2008 to 2013 and 2016 to 2018 (APC 4.7%; 95% CI). Conclusion The downward trend CHD and stroke mortality rates is continuing. Policy intervention directed to strengthen care provision and improve population diets and lifestyles might explain the continued progress, but there is no room for complacency.

scholarly journals Coronary heart disease mortality is decreasing in Argentina and Colombia, but keeps increasing in Mexico: a time trend study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Arroyo-Quiroz ◽  
Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez ◽  
Martin O'Flaherty ◽  
Maria Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Lina Sofia Palacio Mejia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Garbage Code

Abstract Background : Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have decreased in most countries but increased in low and middle-income countries. Few studies have analyzed CHD mortality trends in Latin America, specifically trends in young-adults and the effect of correcting these comparisons for nonspecific causes of death (garbage codes).Objective: To describe and compare standardized, age-specific, and garbage-code corrected mortality trends for CHD from 1985 to 2015 in Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. Methods: CHD deaths were grouped by country, year of registration, sex and 10-year age bands to calculate age-adjusted and age and sex specific rates for adults aged ≥25. We corrected for garbage-codes using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. Finally, we fitted Joinpoint regression models.Results: In 1985, age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 were 136.6 in Argentina, 160.6 in Colombia and 87.51 in Mexico. Compared to 2015, mortality fell in Argentina and Colombia (51% and 6.5% respectively) and increased by 61% in Mexico. The steepest decline was observed in Argentinian women, and the sharpest increment in Mexican men. There has been an upward trend in young Mexicans since 1985. Garbage-code corrections produced increases in mortality rates, particularly in Argentina: approximately 80 additional deaths per 100,000 (14 in Colombia and 13 in Mexico). Conclusions: Latin American countries are at different stages of the epidemic. The disease burdens are bigger after correcting for misclassification. Although CHD mortality is falling in Argentina, the modest falls in Colombia and substantial rises in Mexico highlight the region’s need for effective, population-wide prevention policies.

scholarly journals Coronary heart disease mortality is decreasing in Argentina and Colombia, but keeps increasing in Mexico: a time trend study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Arroyo-Quiroz ◽  
Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez ◽  
Martin O'Flaherty ◽  
Maria Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Lina Sofia Palacio Mejia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Garbage Code

Abstract Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have decreased in most countries, but increased in low and middle-income countries. Few studies have analyzed CHD mortality trends in Latin America, specifically the trends in young-adults and the effect of correcting these comparisons for nonspecific causes of death (garbage codes). Objective: To describe and compare standardized, age-specific, and garbage-code corrected mortality trends for CHD from 1985 to 2015 in Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico. Methods: CHD deaths were grouped by country, year of registration, sex, and 10-year age bands to calculate age-adjusted and age and sex specific rates for adults aged ≥25. We corrected for garbage-codes using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. Finally, we fitted Joinpoint regression models. Results: In 1985, age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 were 136.6 in Argentina, 160.6 in Colombia and 87.51 in Mexico. Compared to 2015, mortality fell in Argentina and Colombia (51% and 6.5% respectively) and increased by 61% in Mexico. The steepest decline was observed in Argentinian women and the sharpest increment in Mexican men. There has been an upward trend in young Mexicans since 1985. Garbage-code corrections produced increases in mortality rates, particularly in Argentina: approximately 80 additional deaths per 100,000 (14 in Colombia and 13 in Mexico). Conclusions: Latin American countries are at different stages of the epidemic. The disease burdens are bigger after correcting for misclassification. Although CHD mortality is falling in Argentina, the modest falls in Colombia and substantial rises in Mexico highlight the region’s need for effective, population-wide prevention policies.

The Joy of Statistics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Selvin
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Short Stories ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Ethnic Differences ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Heart Disease Risk

The Joy of Statistics consists of a series of 42 “short stories,” each illustrating how elementary statistical methods are applied to data to produce insight and solutions to the questions data are collected to answer. The text contains brief histories of the evolution of statistical methods and a number of brief biographies of the most famous statisticians of the 20th century. Also throughout are a few statistical jokes, puzzles, and traditional stories. The level of the Joy of Statistics is elementary and explores a variety of statistical applications using graphs and plots, along with detailed and intuitive descriptions and occasionally using a bit of 10th grade mathematics. Examples of a few of the topics are gambling games such as roulette, blackjack, and lotteries as well as more serious subjects such as comparison of black/white infant mortality rates, coronary heart disease risk, and ethnic differences in Hodgkin’s disease. The statistical description of these methods and topics are accompanied by easy to understand explanations labeled “how it works.”

Mortality and associated risk factors in diabetics

1985 ◽  
Vol 110 (4_Suppl) ◽  
pp. S21-S26 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Jarrett ◽  
M. J. Shipley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Potential Risk Factors ◽  
Diabetic Population ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
The Relationship

Summary. In 168 male diabetics aged 40-64 years participating in the Whitehall Study, ten-year age adjusted mortality rates were significantly higher than in non-diabetics for all causes, coronary heart disease, all cardiovascular disease and, in addition, causes other than cardiovascular. Mortality rates were not significantly related to known duration of the diabetes. The predictive effects of several major mortality risk factors were similar in diabetics and non-diabetics. Excess mortality rates in the diabetics could not be attributed to differences in levels of blood pressure or any other of the major risk factors measured. Key words: diabetics; mortality rates; risk factors; coronary heart disease. There are many studies documenting higher mortality rates - particularly from cardiovascular disease -in diabetics compared with age and sex matched diabetics from the same population (see Jarrett et al. (1982) for review). However, there is sparse information relating potential risk factors to subsequent mortality within a diabetic population, information which might help to explain the increased mortality risk and also suggest preventive therapeutic approaches. In the Whitehall Study, a number of established diabetics participated in the screening programme and data on mortality rates up to ten years after screening are available. We present here a comparison of diabetics and non-diabetics in terms of relative mortality rates and the influence of conventional risk factors as well as an analysis of the relationship between duration of diabetes and mortality risk.

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