Abstract WMP27: PAT Model Accurately Predicts Aneurysm Enlargement in 16 Growing Aneurysm Cases

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aichi Chien ◽  
Michelle Hildebrandt ◽  
Geoffrey Colby ◽  
Victor Chang ◽  
Gary Duckwiler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Records ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Behavior

Objective: Imaging technology for unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) has improved detection of such aneurysms. However, there is limited information on UIA change over time, and how to predict the rate of enlargement. The objective of this study was to quantify the accuracy of the Predicted Aneurysm Trajectory (PAT) model recently developed by Chien et al. (J Neurosurgery. 2019; Mar 1:1-11). Methods: Patients diagnosed with UIA were prospectively enrolled at the UCLA Medical Center, and followed through serial imaging. 16 UIA cases exhibiting growth across multiple follow-ups were included in this study. Prior images and medical records were collected. Characteristics relevant to the PAT model (mean ± stdev), including initial UIA size (7.26 ± 6.38), patient age (67.4 ± 9.48 yrs.), sex (4 male), history of smoking (n=5), hypothyroidism (n=4), and follow-up duration (36.5 ± 50.0 mos.) were used to predict UIA size at each follow-up. Predicted and actual UIA sizes at follow-up were compared using symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) with percentage error ranging from 0-100%. Results: The 16 UIA cases were split by initial UIA size. For UIA smaller than 7 mm (10 cases, 23 follow-up), SMAPE = 11.13%. For UIA greater than 7 mm (6 cases, 15 follow-up), SMAPE = 8.07%. For all UIA cases (16 cases, 38 follow-up), SMAPE = 9.92%. Conclusions: The PAT model predicts the rate of enlargement for UIA, as opposed to whether or not UIA will grow. With this new sample of data, we found the predicted UIA size at follow-up to be quite accurate, deviating in the range of 10% from the actual, measured size. Patient characteristics such as the demographics and behavior included in the model influence the growth of UIA, which allows prediction of growth to optimize treatment and management in future cases.

Unruptured intracranial aneurysms in children: 18 years’ experience in a tertiary care pediatric institution

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel-Alexandre Bisson ◽  
Peter Dirks ◽  
Afsaneh Amirabadi ◽  
Manohar M. Shroff ◽  
Timo Krings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carotid Artery ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Internal Carotid Artery ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Internal Carotid ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of ◽  
Mean Size

OBJECTIVEThere are little data in the literature on the characteristics and natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms in children. The authors analyzed their experience with unruptured intracranial aneurysms in the pediatric population at their tertiary care pediatric institution over the last 18 years. The first objective was to assess the imaging characteristics and natural history of these aneurysms in order to help guide management strategies in the future. A second objective was to evaluate the frequency of an underlying condition when an incidental intracranial aneurysm was detected in a child.METHODSThe authors conducted a Research Ethics Board–approved retrospective review of incidental intracranial aneurysms in patients younger than 18 years of age who had been treated at their institution in the period from 1998 to 2016. Clinical (age, sex, syndrome) and radiological (aneurysm location, type, size, thrombus, mass effect) data were recorded. Follow-up imaging was assessed for temporal changes.RESULTSSixty intracranial aneurysms occurred in 51 patients (36 males, 15 females) with a mean age of 10.5 ± 0.5 years (range 9 months–17 years). Forty-five patients (88.2%) had a single aneurysm, while 2 and 3 aneurysms were found in 3 patients each (5.8%). Syndromic association was found in 22 patients (43.1%), most frequently sickle cell disease (10/22 [45.5%]). Aneurysms were saccular in 43 cases (71.7%; mean size 5.0 ± 5.7 mm) and fusiform in the remaining 17 (28.3%; mean size 6.5 ± 2.7 mm). Thirty-one aneurysms (51.7%) arose from the internal carotid artery (right/left 1.4), most commonly in the cavernous segment (10/31 [32.3%]). Mean size change over the entire follow-up of 109 patient-years was a decrease of 0.6 ± 4.2 mm (range −30.0 to +4.0 mm, rate −0.12 ± 9.9 mm/yr). Interval growth (2.0 ± 1.0 mm) was seen in 8 aneurysms (13.3%; 4 saccular, 4 fusiform). An interval decrease in size (8.3 ± 10.7 mm) was seen in 6 aneurysms (10%). There was an inverse relationship between aneurysm size and growth rate (r = −0.82, p < 0.00001). One aneurysm was treated endovascularly with internal carotid artery sacrifice.CONCLUSIONSUnruptured pediatric intracranial aneurysms are most frequently single but can occur in multiples in a syndromic setting. None of the cases from the study period showed clinical or imaging signs of rupture. Growth over time, although unusual and slow, can occur in a proportion of these patients, who should be identified for short-term imaging surveillance.

Natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: probability of and risk factors for aneurysm rupture

2008 ◽  
Vol 108 (5) ◽  
pp. 1052-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seppo Juvela ◽  
Matti Porras ◽  
Kristiina Poussa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Significant Risk Factor ◽  
Aneurysm Rupture ◽  
Unruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of

Object The authors conducted a study to investigate the long-term natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms and the predictive risk factors determining subsequent rupture in a patient population in which surgical selection of cases was not performed. Methods One hundred forty-two patients with 181 unruptured aneurysms were followed from the 1950s until death or the occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage or until the years 1997 to 1998. The annual and cumulative incidence of aneurysm rupture as well as several potential risk factors predictive of rupture were studied using life-table analyses and Cox's proportional hazards regression models including time-dependent covariates. The median follow-up time was 19.7 years (range 0.8–38.9 years). During 2575 person-years of follow up, there were 33 first-time episodes of hemorrhage from previously unruptured aneurysms, for an average annual incidence of 1.3%. In 17 patients, hemorrhage led to death. The cumulative rate of bleeding was 10.5% at 10 years, 23% at 20 years, and 30.3% at 30 years after diagnosis. The diameter of the unruptured aneurysm (relative risk [RR] 1.11 per mm in diameter, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1–1.23, p = 0.05) and patient age at diagnosis inversely (RR 0.97 per year, 95% CI 0.93–1, p = 0.05) were significant independent predictors for a subsequent aneurysm rupture after adjustment for sex, hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status at the time of diagnosis was a significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.04–2.06, p = 0.033) after adjustment for size of the aneurysm, patient age, sex, presence of hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status as a time-dependent covariate was an even more significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (adjusted RR 3.04, 95% CI 1.21–7.66, p = 0.02). Conclusions Cigarette smoking, size of the unruptured intracranial aneurysm, and age, inversely, are important factors determining risk for subsequent aneurysm rupture. The authors conclude that such unruptured aneurysms should be surgically treated regardless of their size and of a patient's smoking status, especially in young and middle-aged adults, if this is technically possible and if the patient's concurrent diseases are not contraindications. Cessation of smoking may also be a good alternative to surgery in older patients with small-sized aneurysms.

scholarly journals Residuals, recurrences and re-treatment after endovascular repair of intracranial aneurysms: A retrospective methodological comparison

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens J Froelich ◽  
Nicholas Cheung ◽  
Johan AB de Lange ◽  
Jessica Monkhorst ◽  
Michael W Carr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Endovascular Treatment ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Aneurysm Rupture ◽  
Flow Diversion ◽  
Unruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Ruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Methodological Comparison

Objective Incomplete aneurysm occlusions and re-treatment rates of 52 and 10–30%, respectively, have been reported following endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms, raising clinical concerns regarding procedural efficacy. We compare residual, recurrence and re-treatment rates subject to different endovascular techniques in both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms at a comprehensive state-wide tertiary neurovascular centre in Australia. Methods Medical records, procedural and follow-up imaging studies of all patients who underwent endovascular treatment for intracranial aneurysms between July 2010 and July 2017 were reviewed retrospectively. Residuals, recurrences and re-treatment rates were assessed regarding initial aneurysm rupture status and applied endovascular technique: primary coiling, balloon- and stent-assisted coiling and flow diversion. Results Among 233 aneurysms, residual, recurrence and re-treatment rates were 27, 11.2 and 9.4%, respectively. Compared with unruptured aneurysms, similar residual and recurrence (p > .05), but higher re-treatment rates (4.5% vs. 19%; p < .001) were found for ruptured aneurysms. Residual, recurrence and re-treatment rates were: 13.3, 16 and 12% for primary coiling; 12, 12 and 10.7% for balloon-assisted coiling; 14.9, 7.5 and 4.5% for stent-assisted coiling; 91.9, 0 and 5.4% for flow diversion. Stent-assistance and flow-diversion were associated with lower recurrence and re-treatment rates, when compared with primary- and balloon-assisted coiling (p < .05). Conclusions Residuals and recurrences after endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms are less common than previously reported. Stent assistance and flow diversion seem associated with reduced recurrence- and re-treatment rates, when compared with primary- and balloon-assisted coiling. Restrained use of stents in ruptured aneurysms may be a contributing factor for higher recurrence/retreatment rates compared to unruptured aneurysms.

ELAPSS score for prediction of risk of growth of unruptured intracranial aneurysms

Neurology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 88 (17) ◽  
pp. 1600-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daan Backes ◽  
Gabriel J.E. Rinkel ◽  
Jacoba P. Greving ◽  
Birgitta K. Velthuis ◽  
Yuichi Murayama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of ◽  
Aneurysm Growth ◽  
Risk Factor Status

Objective:To develop a risk score that estimates 3-year and 5-year absolute risks for aneurysm growth.Methods:From 10 cohorts of patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms and follow-up imaging, we pooled individual data on sex, population, age, hypertension, history of subarachnoid hemorrhage, and aneurysm location, size, aspect ratio, and shape but not on smoking during follow-up and family history of intracranial aneurysms in 1,507 patients with 1,909 unruptured intracranial aneurysms and used aneurysm growth as outcome. With aneurysm-based multivariable Cox regression analysis, we determined predictors for aneurysm growth, which were presented as a risk score to calculate 3-year and 5-year risks for aneurysm growth by risk factor status.Results:Aneurysm growth occurred in 257 patients (17%) and 267 aneurysms (14%) during 5,782 patient-years of follow-up. Predictors for aneurysm growth were earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, location of the aneurysm, age >60 years, population, size of the aneurysm, and shape of the aneurysm (ELAPSS). The 3-year growth risk ranged from <5% to >42% and the 5-year growth risk from <9% to >60%, depending on the risk factor status.Conclusions:The ELAPSS score consists of 6 easily retrievable predictors and can help physicians in decision making on the need for and timing of follow-up imaging in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms.

Unruptured intracranial aneurysm growth trajectory: occurrence and rate of enlargement in 520 longitudinally followed cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (4) ◽  
pp. 1077-1087 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aichi Chien ◽  
Rashida A. Callender ◽  
Hajime Yokota ◽  
Noriko Salamon ◽  
Geoffrey P. Colby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Growth Trajectory ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Initial Size ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Aneurysm Growth

OBJECTIVEAs imaging technology has improved, more unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) are detected incidentally. However, there is limited information regarding how UIAs change over time to provide stratified, patient-specific UIA follow-up management. The authors sought to enrich understanding of the natural history of UIAs and identify basic UIA growth trajectories, that is, the speed at which various UIAs increase in size.METHODSFrom January 2005 to December 2015, 382 patients diagnosed with UIAs (n = 520) were followed up at UCLA Medical Center through serial imaging. UIA characteristics and patient-specific variables were studied to identify risk factors associated with aneurysm growth and create a predicted aneurysm trajectory (PAT) model to differentiate aneurysm growth behavior.RESULTSThe PAT model indicated that smoking and hypothyroidism had a large effect on the growth rate of large UIAs (≥ 7 mm), while UIAs < 7 mm were less influenced by smoking and hypothyroidism. Analysis of risk factors related to growth showed that initial size and multiplicity were significant factors related to aneurysm growth and were consistent across different definitions of growth. A 1.09-fold increase in risk of growth was found for every 1-mm increase in initial size (95% CI 1.04–1.15; p = 0.001). Aneurysms in patients with multiple aneurysms were 2.43-fold more likely to grow than those in patients with single aneurysms (95% CI 1.36–4.35; p = 0.003). The growth rate (speed) for large UIAs (≥ 7 mm; 0.085 mm/month) was significantly faster than that for UIAs < 3 mm (0.030 mm/month) and for males than for females (0.089 and 0.045 mm/month, respectively; p = 0.048).CONCLUSIONSAnalyzing longitudinal UIA data as continuous data points can be useful to study the risk of growth and predict the aneurysm growth trajectory. Individual patient characteristics (demographics, behavior, medical history) may have a significant effect on the speed of UIA growth, and predictive models such as PAT may help optimize follow-up frequency for UIA management.

Enlargement of small, asymptomatic, unruptured intracranial aneurysms in patients with no history of subarachnoid hemorrhage: the different factors related to the growth of single and multiple aneurysms

2013 ◽  
Vol 119 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aichi Chien ◽  
Feng Liang ◽  
James Sayre ◽  
Noriko Salamon ◽  
Pablo Villablanca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Posterior Circulation ◽  
Unruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Multiple Aneurysms ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of ◽  
Aneurysm Growth ◽  
Small Aneurysms

Object This study was performed to investigate the risk factors related to the growth of small, asymptomatic, unruptured aneurysms in patients with no history of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods Between January 2005 and December 2010, a total of 508 patients in whom unruptured intracranial aneurysms were diagnosed at the University of California, Los Angeles medical center did not receive treatment to prevent rupture. Of these, 235 patients with no history of SAH who had asymptomatic, small, unruptured aneurysms (< 7 mm) were monitored with 3D CT angiography images. Follow-up images of the lesions were used to measure aneurysm size changes. Patient medical history, family history of SAH, aneurysm size, and location were studied to find the risk factors associated with small aneurysm growth. Results A total of 319 small aneurysms were included, with follow-up durations of 29.2 ± 20.6 months. Forty-two aneurysms increased in size during the follow-up; 5 aneurysms grew to become ≥ 7 mm within 38.2 ± 18.3 months. A trend of higher growth rates was found in single aneurysms than in multiple aneurysms (p = 0.07). A history of stroke was the only factor associated with single aneurysm growth (p = 0.03). The number of aneurysms (p = 0.011), number of aneurysms located within the posterior circulation (p = 0.030), and patient history of transient ischemic attack (p = 0.044) were related to multiple aneurysm growth. Conclusions Multiple small aneurysms are more likely to grow, and multiple aneurysms located in the posterior circulation may require additional attention. Although single aneurysms have a lower risk of growth, a trend of higher growth rates in single aneurysms was found.

Abstract TP82: The Growth of Small, Asymptomatic, Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms with no History of SAH -Different Risk Factors Associated with Single and Multiple Aneurysms

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aichi Chien ◽  
Feng Liang ◽  
James Sayre ◽  
Noriko Salamon ◽  
Pablo Villablanca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Posterior Circulation ◽  
Rupture Risk ◽  
Multiple Aneurysms ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of ◽  
Aneurysm Growth

Introduction: The International Study on Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms suggests that small (<7mm), asymptomatic, unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) in patients with no history of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) should be managed conservatively. Recent research has independently shown considerable variation in the rupture risk of small UIA. As enlargement may indicate increased risk of rupture, the factors related to UIA growth may also influence rupture risk. Information about small UIA growth is limited and heterogeneous due to limited follow-up data. Hypothesis: Growth factors for small UIA vary between subset groups. Methods: A retrospective study was performed based on a total of 508 patients diagnosed with UIA from 2005-2010 in our center. 235 patients with asymptomatic, small UIA and no history of SAH were monitored with high resolution 3D CTA. Patient medical history and aneurysm characteristics (size, growth, location and multiplicity) were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic were used to identify the factors associated with growth. The Student’s t-test was applied to compare the aneurysm growth rate between subset groups. Results: A total of 319 UIA were included with follow-up durations of 29.2 20.0 months. 42 UIA increased in size during the follow-up. 5 UIA grew to become ≥ 7 mm (within 38.2±18.3 months). A trend of higher growth rates was found in single aneurysms than in multiple aneurysms (P=0.07). History of stroke was the only factor associated with single aneurysm growth (P=0.03). The number of aneurysms (P=0.014), aneurysms located within the posterior circulation (P=0.023), and patient history of transient ischemic attack (P=0.032) were related to multiple aneurysm growth. Conclusion: We found that multiple small aneurysms were more likely to grow, especially those at posterior circulation. Although single aneurysms have a lower risk of growth, a trend of higher growth rates was found.

Results of watchful waiting of unruptured intracranial aneurysms in a Western patient population: a single-center cohort

2021 ◽  
pp. neurintsurg-2021-018151
Author(s):  
Mathilde Aubertin ◽  
Clément Jourdaine ◽  
Cédric Thépenier ◽  
Marc-Antoine Labeyrie ◽  
Vittorio Civelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Watchful Waiting ◽  
Single Center ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Patient Decision ◽  
Radiological Data ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
Risk Of Rupture ◽  
History Of

BackgroundThe natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) in Western populations is still debated, especially for those <7 mm. Reporting data of a large single-center cohort managed with watchful waiting is therefore interesting.MethodsFrom January 2011 to June 2019, 662 UIAs were followed up by yearly MR angiography. Morphologically stable UIAs were managed conservatively while unstable UIAs were offered treatment. The patients’ clinical and radiological data were analyzed retrospectively.ResultsUIAs were ≤4 mm in 60%, 4.1–7.0 mm in 33%, and >7 mm in 7%. They were located on the anterior circulation in 90% of cases. The mean follow-up duration was 51.32 months for a total of 2831 aneurysm-years. During follow-up, 37 UIAs (5.5%) were treated because of an increase in size, and 8 UIAs were treated because of patient decision. Three aneurysms ruptured during follow-up for an annual risk of rupture of 0.1% (95% CI 0% to 0.24%). No risk factors for rupture were identified. The three ruptured cases made an excellent recovery. During follow-up, annual mortality from unrelated causes was 0.8% (95% CI 0.51% to 1.18%).ConclusionsThis single-center cohort evaluated our watchful waiting policy applied in two-thirds of all incidental UIAs. Morphological change of UIAs during follow-up led to treatment in 5.5% of cases. With such a management paradigm, we found a low rupture rate in these selected UIAs and the mortality was unrelated to aneurysms.

Awareness of Pregnant Women for COVID-19 Infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Okuyan ◽  
Emre Gunakan ◽  
Sertaç Esin
Keyword(s):  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Home Birth ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Emotional Status ◽  
Prevention Method ◽  
And Behavior

Covid outbreak has been getting worse and spread affected all over the world. Pregnant patients are also vulnerable to respiratory diseases. We aimed to evaluate the awareness, emotional status, and behavior of pregnant during the COVID outbreak. This study's main benefit is to analyze the knowledge and understanding of pregnant women about the pandemic and draw attention to the prevention issues that need improvement. This research is a prospective observational study that 199 patients subjected to a questionnaire including 29 questions about patient characteristics, pregnancy information, knowledge about COVID19-infection, behavioral and emotional changes. 130 (65.3) of the patients stated an above-average knowledge level. Television was the most frequent information source (75.4%, n:150) and was the only information source for 90 (45.1%) of the patients. Sixty-nine patients used more than one information source. More than one prevention method uses by 149 (75%) of the patients. Washing hands (n:183, 92.0%) and cleaning the house (n:122, 61.3%) were the most preferred methods. Only 55 (27.6%) of the patients used a mask for prevention. 88(44.2%) of the patients stated that they preferred a shorter hospital stay, and 75 (37.7%) of the patients indicated that they postponed or avoided the pregnancy follow-up visits due to the COVID-19 issue. Pregnant women seem to be aware and stressed of COVID-19, but knowledge of what to do seems insufficient. Patients informed of risks of COVID infection, unplanned hospital admission, and chances of avoiding necessary visits and home birth demands.

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