Economic Consequences of Divorce in the United States: Recent Developments

Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Davahli ◽  
Krzysztof Fiok ◽  
Waldemar Karwowski ◽  
Awad M. Aljuaid ◽  
Redha Taiar

The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented social and economic consequences in the United States. Therefore, accurately predicting the dynamics of the pandemic can be very beneficial. Two main elements required for developing reliable predictions include: (1) a predictive model and (2) an indicator of the current condition and status of the pandemic. As a pandemic indicator, we used the effective reproduction number (Rt), which is defined as the number of new infections transmitted by a single contagious individual in a population that may no longer be fully susceptible. To bring the pandemic under control, Rt must be less than one. To eliminate the pandemic, Rt should be close to zero. Therefore, this value may serve as a strong indicator of the current status of the pandemic. For a predictive model, we used graph neural networks (GNNs), a method that combines graphical analysis with the structure of neural networks. We developed two types of GNN models, including: (1) graph-theory-based neural networks (GTNN) and (2) neighborhood-based neural networks (NGNN). The nodes in both graphs indicated individual states in the US states. While the GTNN model’s edges document functional connectivity between states, those in the NGNN model link neighboring states to one another. We trained both models with Rt numbers collected over the previous four days and asked them to predict the following day for all states in the USA. The performance of these models was evaluated with the datasets that included Rt values reflecting conditions from 22 January through 26 November 2020 (before the start of COVID-19 vaccination in the USA). To determine the efficiency, we compared the results of two models with each other and with those generated by a baseline Long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The results indicated that the GTNN model outperformed both the NGNN and LSTM models for predicting Rt.


2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyn Hinds ◽  
Kathleen Daly

This article explores the contemporary phenomenon of “naming and shaming” sex offenders. Community notification laws, popularly known as Megan's Law, which authorise the public disclosure of the identity of convicted sex offenders to the community in which they live, were enacted throughout the United States in the 1990s. A public campaign to introduce “Sarah's Law” has recently been launched in Britain, following the death of eight-year old Sarah Payne. Why are sex offenders, and certain categories of sex offenders, singled out as targets of community notification laws? What explains historical variability in the form that sex offender laws take? We address these questions by reviewing the sexual psychopath laws enacted in the United States in the 1930s and 40s and the sexual predator and community notification laws of the 1990s, comparing recent developments in the United States with those in Britain, Canada, and Australia. We consider arguments by Garland, O'Malley, Pratt, and others on how community notification, and the control of sex offenders more generally, can be explained; and we speculate on the likelihood that Australia will adopt community notification laws.


2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (12) ◽  
pp. 1387-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hodda ◽  
D. C. Cook

Potato cyst nematodes (PCN) (Globodera spp.) are quarantine pests with serious potential economic consequences. Recent new detections in Australia, Canada, and the United States have focussed attention on the consequences of spread and economic justifications for alternative responses. Here, a full assessment of the economic impact of PCN spread from a small initial incursion is presented. Models linking spread, population growth, and economic impact are combined to estimate costs of spread without restriction in Australia. Because the characteristics of the Australian PCN populations are currently unknown, the known ranges of parameters were used to obtain cost scenarios, an approach which makes the model predictions applicable generally. Our analysis indicates that mean annual costs associated with spread of PCN would increase rapidly initially, associated with increased testing. Costs would then increase more slowly to peak at over AUD$20 million per year ≈10 years into the future. Afterward, this annual cost would decrease slightly due to discounting factors. Mean annual costs over 20 years were $18.7 million, with a 90% confidence interval between AUD$11.9 million and AUD$27.0 million. Thus, cumulative losses to Australian agriculture over 20 years may exceed $370 million without action to prevent spread of PCN and entry to new areas.


Ecclesiology ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-219
Author(s):  
Paul Fiddes

AbstractThe main substance of this article is an extended review of a recent book by a Southern Baptist historical theologian, Malcolm Yarnell, entitled The Formation of Christian Doctrine, which aims to root the development of doctrine in a free-church ecclesiology. This review offers the opportunity to examine a spectrum of ecclesiologies that has recently emerged among Baptists in the Southern region of the United States of America. Four 'conservative' versions of ecclesiology are identified, which are named as 'Landmarkist', 'Reformed', 'Reformed-Ecumenical' and 'Conservative Localist'. Four 'moderate' versions are similarly identified, and named as 'Voluntarist', 'Catholic', 'Moderate Localist' and 'World-Baptist'. While these categories are not intended to be mutually exclusive, the typology is useful both in positioning Yarnell's particular thesis, and in making comparisons with recent Baptist ecclesiology in Great Britain, which has focussed on the concept of covenant. Yarnell's own appeal to covenant is unusual in Southern Baptist thinking, and means that he cannot be easily fitted into the typology suggested. Though he belongs most evidently to the group named here as 'Conservative Localists', and is overtly opposed to any concept of a visible, universal church except in an eschatological sense, it is suggested that his own arguments might be seen as tending towards a more 'universal' view of the reality of the church beyond its local manifestation. His own work thus offers the promise that present polarizations among Baptists in the southern United States might, in time, be overcome.


Author(s):  
Carol A. Corrado ◽  
Paul Lengermann ◽  
Eric J. Bartelsman ◽  
Joe Joseph Beaulieu

1986 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil E. Reichenberg

This article provides an overview of pay equity as well as an update of recent developments concerning this issue. The article summarizes the arguments advanced by pay equity advocates and opponents. There is a discussion of the leading court decisions which is organized as cases brought before and after the United States Supreme Court's landmark decision in the case of County of Washington v. Gunther, 452 U.S. 161 (1981). The position of the Reagan Administration, as set forth by the Department of Justice and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission also is summarized. The article includes a description of the legislation pending before the 99th United States Congress along with state legislative developments. The final section of the article is a pay equity bibliography.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist ◽  
Anette Fasang ◽  
Marika Jalovaara ◽  
Emanuela Struffolino

Numerous studies have shown that parental divorce increases children’s divorce risk. Weextend this literature by assessing how parental divorce on both sides of a (potential) coupleaffects their partnering dynamics. Specifically, we explore 1) whether there is parental divorcehomogamy and whether the parental divorce of both partners adds to the dissolution of both 2)cohabiting and 3) married unions. Our analyses use event history models on high-qualityFinnish Census Panel data covering 28,021 cohabiting and marital partnerships between ages18 and 45. We found substantial parental divorce homogamy in that children who experiencedparental divorce are 13% more likely to cohabit with and 17% more likely to marry a fellowchild of divorce. Moreover, contrary to evidence from the United States and Norway, ourfindings for Finland support an additive, not a multiplicative, effect. Here, both partners’parental divorce increases their offspring’s dissolution risk by 20% for cohabitation and 70%for marriage compared to couples where neither of their parents are divorced. We conclude thatparental divorce on both sides of a couple affects family formation processes at multiple stages.In Finland, these effects are notably less than previously found in the United States. This islikely because cohabitation and separation are wide-spread and socially accepted in Finlandand an expansive welfare state buffers the socio-economic consequences of divorce.


Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.


Author(s):  
Laura Alice Watt ◽  
David Lowenthal

This epilogue tracks the more recent developments in the land use versus land preservation debate, including further controversies surrounding Point Reyes. A new lawsuit was filed against the NPS in Point Reyes, with demands that the ongoing ranch management planning process be suspended until the thirty-six-year-old PRNS General Management Plan can finally be updated with studies of the environmental impacts of grazing. Elsewhere in the United States, the chapter covers the aftermath of an armed standoff at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. However, the chapter goes on to outline more hopeful changes across the country, such as the fact that more and more people are beginning to compromise on “what a park is for.”


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