Economic Impact from Unrestricted Spread of Potato Cyst Nematodes in Australia

Potato cyst nematodes (PCN) (Globodera spp.) are quarantine pests with serious potential economic consequences. Recent new detections in Australia, Canada, and the United States have focussed attention on the consequences of spread and economic justifications for alternative responses. Here, a full assessment of the economic impact of PCN spread from a small initial incursion is presented. Models linking spread, population growth, and economic impact are combined to estimate costs of spread without restriction in Australia. Because the characteristics of the Australian PCN populations are currently unknown, the known ranges of parameters were used to obtain cost scenarios, an approach which makes the model predictions applicable generally. Our analysis indicates that mean annual costs associated with spread of PCN would increase rapidly initially, associated with increased testing. Costs would then increase more slowly to peak at over AUD$20 million per year ≈10 years into the future. Afterward, this annual cost would decrease slightly due to discounting factors. Mean annual costs over 20 years were $18.7 million, with a 90% confidence interval between AUD$11.9 million and AUD$27.0 million. Thus, cumulative losses to Australian agriculture over 20 years may exceed $370 million without action to prevent spread of PCN and entry to new areas.

Download Full-text

A domestic earthquake impact alert protocol based on the combined USGS PAGER and FEMA Hazus loss estimation systems

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1177/8755293019878187 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (1) ◽

pp. 164-182 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

David J. Wald ◽

Hope A. Seligson ◽

Jesse Rozelle ◽

Jordan Burns ◽

Kristin Marano ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Economic Impact ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

The United States ◽

Loss Estimation ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Alert System ◽

Specific Loss ◽

Systematic Comparison ◽

Loss Models

The United States Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) alert system provides rapid (10–20 min) but general loss estimates of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for significant global earthquakes. FEMA’s Hazus software, in contrast, provides time-consuming (2–5 h) but more detailed loss information quantified in terms of structural, social, and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution for large domestic earthquakes. We developed a rapid hybrid post-earthquake product that takes advantage of the best of both loss models. First, though, we conducted a systematic comparison of loss estimates from PAGER with Hazus for all significant, relatively recent, domestic earthquakes for which adequate loss data exist—augmented by a dozen ShakeMap scenarios. The systematic comparison of Hazus and PAGER losses provided the basis for selecting the specific loss metrics to present from each system. The signature product will serve as a supplement to the widely deployed PAGER alert product for significant domestic earthquakes.

Download Full-text

Monetizing the Burden of Childhood Asthma Due to Traffic Related Air Pollution in the Contiguous United States in 2010

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18157864 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (15) ◽

pp. 7864

Author(s):

Minaal Farrukh ◽

Haneen Khreis

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Economic Impact ◽

Childhood Asthma ◽

Ambient Air ◽

The United States ◽

The State ◽

Cost Calculation ◽

Cost Burden ◽

Incident Cases

Background: Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) refers to the wide range of air pollutants emitted by traffic that are dispersed into the ambient air. Emerging evidence shows that TRAP can increase asthma incidence in children. Living with asthma can carry a huge financial burden for individuals and families due to direct and indirect medical expenses, which can include costs of hospitalization, medical visits, medication, missed school days, and loss of wages from missed workdays for caregivers. Objective: The objective of this paper is to estimate the economic impact of childhood asthma incident cases attributable to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a common traffic-related air pollutant in urban areas, in the United States at the state level. Methods: We calculate the direct and indirect costs of childhood asthma incident cases attributable to NO2 using previously published burden of disease estimates and per person asthma cost estimates. By multiplying the per person indirect and direct costs for each state with the NO2-attributable asthma incident cases in each state, we were able to estimate the total cost of childhood asthma cases attributable to NO2 in the United States. Results: The cost calculation estimates the total direct and indirect annual cost of childhood asthma cases attributable to NO2 in the year 2010 to be $178,900,138.989 (95% CI: $101,019,728.20–$256,980,126.65). The state with the highest cost burden is California with $24,501,859.84 (95% CI: $10,020,182.62–$38,982,261.250), and the state with the lowest cost burden is Montana with $88,880.12 (95% CI: $33,491.06–$144,269.18). Conclusion: This study estimates the annual costs of childhood asthma incident cases attributable to NO2 and demonstrates the importance of conducting economic impacts studies of TRAP. It is important for policy-making institutions to focus on this problem by advocating and supporting more studies on TRAP’s impact on the national economy and health, including these economic impact estimates in the decision-making process, and devising mitigation strategies to reduce TRAP and the population’s exposure.

Download Full-text

Longer Residence in the United States is Associated With More Physical Function Limitations in African Immigrant Older Adults

Journal of Applied Gerontology ◽

10.1177/0733464820977608 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 073346482097760

Author(s):

Manka Nkimbeng ◽

Yvonne Commodore-Mensah ◽

Jacqueline L. Angel ◽

Karen Bandeen-Roche ◽

Roland J. Thorpe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Older Adults ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Physical Function ◽

Racial Discrimination ◽

African Immigrants ◽

The United States ◽

African Immigrant ◽

High Discrimination ◽

The Mean

Acculturation and racial discrimination have been independently associated with physical function limitations in immigrant and United States (U.S.)-born populations. This study examined the relationships among acculturation, racial discrimination, and physical function limitations in N = 165 African immigrant older adults using multiple linear regression. The mean age was 62 years ( SD = 8 years), and 61% were female. Older adults who resided in the United States for 10 years or more had more physical function limitations compared with those who resided here for less than 10 years ( b = −2.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [–5.01, –0.23]). Compared to lower discrimination, those with high discrimination had more physical function limitations ( b = −2.51, 95% CI = [–4.91, –0.17]), but this was no longer significant after controlling for length of residence and acculturation strategy. Residing in the United States for more than 10 years is associated with poorer physical function. Longitudinal studies with large, diverse samples of African immigrants are needed to confirm these associations.

Download Full-text

Predicting the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States Using Graph Theory-Based Neural Networks

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18073834 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (7) ◽

pp. 3834

Author(s):

Mohammad Reza Davahli ◽

Krzysztof Fiok ◽

Waldemar Karwowski ◽

Awad M. Aljuaid ◽

Redha Taiar

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Graph Theory ◽

Predictive Model ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

The United States ◽

Graphical Analysis ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Current Status ◽

The Usa

The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented social and economic consequences in the United States. Therefore, accurately predicting the dynamics of the pandemic can be very beneficial. Two main elements required for developing reliable predictions include: (1) a predictive model and (2) an indicator of the current condition and status of the pandemic. As a pandemic indicator, we used the effective reproduction number (Rt), which is defined as the number of new infections transmitted by a single contagious individual in a population that may no longer be fully susceptible. To bring the pandemic under control, Rt must be less than one. To eliminate the pandemic, Rt should be close to zero. Therefore, this value may serve as a strong indicator of the current status of the pandemic. For a predictive model, we used graph neural networks (GNNs), a method that combines graphical analysis with the structure of neural networks. We developed two types of GNN models, including: (1) graph-theory-based neural networks (GTNN) and (2) neighborhood-based neural networks (NGNN). The nodes in both graphs indicated individual states in the US states. While the GTNN model’s edges document functional connectivity between states, those in the NGNN model link neighboring states to one another. We trained both models with Rt numbers collected over the previous four days and asked them to predict the following day for all states in the USA. The performance of these models was evaluated with the datasets that included Rt values reflecting conditions from 22 January through 26 November 2020 (before the start of COVID-19 vaccination in the USA). To determine the efficiency, we compared the results of two models with each other and with those generated by a baseline Long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The results indicated that the GTNN model outperformed both the NGNN and LSTM models for predicting Rt.

Download Full-text

Economic Consequences of Divorce in the United States: Recent Developments

Family Law in Britain and America in the New Century ◽

10.1163/9789004304925_005 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 55-66

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Recent Developments

Download Full-text

The longitudinal health economic impact of viral encephalitis in the United States

Journal of Medical Microbiology ◽

10.1099/jmm.0.001153 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 69 (2) ◽

pp. 270-279 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Musa Kiyani ◽

Beiyu Liu ◽

Lefko T. Charalambous ◽

Syed M. Adil ◽

Sarah E. Hodges ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Health Economic ◽

Economic Impact ◽

Viral Encephalitis ◽

The United States

Download Full-text

Parental divorce homogamy and its effect on separation from cohabitation and marriage

10.31235/osf.io/p6rea ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist ◽

Anette Fasang ◽

Marika Jalovaara ◽

Emanuela Struffolino

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Family Formation ◽

Parental Divorce ◽

The United States ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Event History ◽

Formation Processes ◽

Wide Spread ◽

Multiplicative Effect ◽

Divorce Risk

Numerous studies have shown that parental divorce increases children’s divorce risk. Weextend this literature by assessing how parental divorce on both sides of a (potential) coupleaffects their partnering dynamics. Specifically, we explore 1) whether there is parental divorcehomogamy and whether the parental divorce of both partners adds to the dissolution of both 2)cohabiting and 3) married unions. Our analyses use event history models on high-qualityFinnish Census Panel data covering 28,021 cohabiting and marital partnerships between ages18 and 45. We found substantial parental divorce homogamy in that children who experiencedparental divorce are 13% more likely to cohabit with and 17% more likely to marry a fellowchild of divorce. Moreover, contrary to evidence from the United States and Norway, ourfindings for Finland support an additive, not a multiplicative, effect. Here, both partners’parental divorce increases their offspring’s dissolution risk by 20% for cohabitation and 70%for marriage compared to couples where neither of their parents are divorced. We conclude thatparental divorce on both sides of a couple affects family formation processes at multiple stages.In Finland, these effects are notably less than previously found in the United States. This islikely because cohabitation and separation are wide-spread and socially accepted in Finlandand an expansive welfare state buffers the socio-economic consequences of divorce.

Download Full-text

The Health Economic Impact of Coffee Consumption on Prevention of Chronic Disease and Cancer in the United States

Value in Health ◽

10.1016/j.jval.2014.03.450 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. A77

Author(s):

K. O’Day ◽

C.M. Campbell ◽

B.V. Popelar ◽

T. McLaughlin

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Health Economic ◽

Chronic Disease ◽

Economic Impact ◽

Coffee Consumption ◽

The United States

Download Full-text

Turkish-US talks may limit Armenian genocide damage

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db261139 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Armenian Genocide ◽

Content Type ◽

The Government

Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.

Download Full-text