The Impact of Crude Price and Exchange Rate Toward Stock Price of Oil Company

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 792-794
Author(s):  
Syelvi Cahyadi ◽  
Togar Alam Napitupulu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Exploratory Stage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Company

Predicting the stock price in oil industry is considered very important because oil industry is a heavily capital intensive industry that require substantial amount of capital not only to operate, but including in the exploratory stage. For this reason, it is important to know what would be the factors that affect such price. The objective of the study then is to find such factor or variables, while it is significantly related to the stock price, it also have to be easily acquired. We begun by presuming that crude oil price and exchange rate–tax rate were of such factors. The results indicated indeed crude oil price positively affects stock price with a magnitude of 14.85 points. Similarly, exchange rata also positively affecting stock price with magnitude of 0.27 points. As such it is they are important factors to consider in predicting stock price of the Oil Company and hence important indicators for investors to be considered in making decision to buy or not to buy.

Impacts of Falling Crude Oil Prices and Reduction of Energy Subsidies on the Indian Economy: A CGE Modelling Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-360
Author(s):  
Amrita Ganguly ◽  
Koushik Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Transfer Scheme ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Cge Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Energy Subsidy

This study analyzes the impacts of international crude oil fluctuations and energy subsidy (on LPG, petrol and diesel) removals on Indian economy. We have applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling as our relevant methodology, following Shoven and Whalley ( J Econ Lit XXII: 1007–1051, 1984) based on energy social accounting matrix (ESAM) of India for the year 2007–2008. It is seen that the international crude oil price fluctuations has a greater effect in determining gross domestic product (GDP) and exchange rate as compared to the effect of energy subsidy removal. With decrease in international crude oil price, GDP increases and exchange rate appreciates. On the other hand, with decrease in energy subsidy, GDP decreases and exchange rate appreciates. Moreover, with introduction of direct cash transfer scheme in lieu of subsidy for LPG, it is seen that the impact on demand of LPG (substitution effect) is negligible indicating that LPG is an essential commodity.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH (STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA DAN MALAYSIA)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
DESY TRISHARDIYANTI ADININGTYAS
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model

Abstract. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Sharia Stock Price Index (Case Study in Indonesia and Malaysia). The purpose of this research is to know the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, world crude oil price and world gold price) on sharia stock price index in Indonesia and Malaysia. By using Error Correction Model as the method, this research utilizes time series monthly data from March 2015 until February 2018. The finding shows that in long-term, inflation in Indonesia, exchange rate of rupiah, world crude oil price and world gold price had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. In short-term, inflation in Indonesia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index and exchange rate of rupiah had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. Meanwhile, inflation in Malaysia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term. And exchange rate of ringgit had significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term.   Abstrak. Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Syariah (Studi Kasus di Indonesia dan Malaysia). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel makroekonomi (inflasi, kurs, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia) terhadap indeks harga saham syariah di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Model, dengan data time series bulanan dari Maret 2015 sampai dengan Februari 2018. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa pada jangka panjang, inflasi Indonesia, kurs rupiah, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Pada jangka pendek, inflasi Indonesia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index dan kurs rupiah berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Sementara itu, inflasi Malaysia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Dan kurs ringgit berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek.

scholarly journals CRUDE OIL PRICE, STOCK PRICE AND SOME SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AN IMPLICATION ON THE GROWTH OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Idowu Paul Olanitori ◽  
Olaiya Hawley Ademulegun ◽  
Olateru Olagbegi Adeparubi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run

Since the first oil price oscillation in 1973s, macroeconomists have viewed sharp measures in the price of oil are generally as an important source of economic vacillations. The go-slow of economic activities has important implications for economic agents and markets. Therefore, this paper models and forecasts the crude oil price, stock price and selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. A model predicated on the Keynesian model using yearly data between 1986 and 2016 and analysed using VECM and GARCH approaches. The findings showed that there is long run relationship through Vector Error Correction Model which was achieved well in forecasting the selected macroeconomic variables while the volatility in crude oil price and stock price causes by external and internal forces also captured by General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskadasticity. The long run negative effect of macroeconomic variable on economy growth can be controlled by making strong fiscal and monetary policies. The 2016 recession was reinforced by all share index and exchange rate as the path of growth declined over the forecast horizon. Further checks carried out using normality test validated the choice of this work. The paper concludes that monetary and exchange rate policy consistency are decisive for smoothening business rotation vacillations and promoting market stability. JEL: L10; E30 <p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0851/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

scholarly journals Impact of Macro - Economic Factors on Indian Stock Market- A Research of BSE Sectoral Indices

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S7) ◽  
pp. 597-602
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact

Macro-Economic factors plays a major role in decision making. Evaluation of macroeconomic environment is required to examine the behaviour of stock prices, which further influences the investor’s investment behaviour. Even though some macro-economic factors are not directly related to the company or industry, but those factors has an impact on stock prices, further economic activity in the domestic and global level has its own impact on stock market. When economy of the country grows hastily, it leads to faster growth in the industry and vice versa. Financial market plays a central role in the performance of financial system of an economy. Stock market is a market where securities of listed companies are exchanged between different investors, it is very responsive market which, gives a stage to investors to invest their money in various securities. Market indices are the tools to measure the performance of various securities of stock market and Investors make use of those market indices to analyse performance of those industries in which, they prefer to invest. This study takes into account six macro-economic factors (Crude oil Price, Gold Price, Silver Price, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate) to study & analyse the impact of these variables on selected sectoral indices at BSE, SENSEX, S&P BSE BANKEX, S&P BSE Oil and Gas, S&P BSE Capital Goods, S&P BSE Consumer Durables, S&P BSE Reality, S&P BSE PSU and S&P BSE Power. The study shows that gold price, exchange rate, consumer price index and interest rate are positively correlated with four indices but crude oil price and silver price have positively correlated with 3 indices. So from the result it is clear that investor need to take of all the variables for their investment decision and the investment banker also take care of these indicators before giving suggestion to their clients

The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies

2018 ◽  
Vol 95 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 227-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Qiang ◽  
Aimei Lin ◽  
Chao Zhao ◽  
Zhenhua Liu ◽  
Manzhi Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

scholarly journals A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Estimating the Response of the Consumer Price to Exchange Rate Movements in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 284
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price in Thailand based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of the IS, LM and AS function. It employs comparative static analysis to determine the impact of a change in an exogenous variable on the equilibrium price level. The paper finds that a 1% depreciation of the Thai baht tends to cause the CPI to rise by 0.0696% and has declined since the adoption of inflation targeting in 2000. In addition, more money supply, more government deficit as a percent of GDP, a higher crude oil price, a higher U.S. CPI, and a higher expected price tends to raise Thailand’s CPI. The findings suggest that in addition to the exchange rate, other relevant variables such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, the crude oil price, U.S. price level and the expected price level are expected to impact the consumer price level.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Pada Indeks LQ45 Periode 2011-2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 128
Author(s):  
Fitrah Auliana ◽  
Tahmat Tahmat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression

The purpose of this study is to find out and analyze the influence of partial and simultaneously of external factors of the company specifically crude oil price, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate towards mining stock price. Object of this study are mining companies that listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange and entered in LQ45 indices period of 2011- 2018. Method of analysis in this research is panel data regression analysis. With purposive sampling method, 13 companies obtained that will be the object of research.Based on research results, crude oil price, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate have simultaneously effect towards mining stock prices. But in partially, just crude oil price and interest rate have effect towards mining stock prices, while inflation and exchage rate haven’t partially effect towards mining stock price in LQ45 indices period of 2011-2018.

scholarly journals Oil and the Ruble: Collapse of Cointegration

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-74
Author(s):  
Boris I. Alekhin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Third ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
The Impact

Oil still contributes around 30 % to Russia's commodity export earnings, therefore the impact of oil prices on Ruble's exchange rate is of current interest to Russian economists. Instruments of time series analysis were used to test a proposition that the Russian ruble’s exchange rate has become less dependent on Brent crude oil price in recent years. We obtained 1,095 weekly observations for years 2000 to 2020 were obtained from FINAM company website. Our empirical model is a linear regression of the ruble’s exchange rate on Brent crude oil price. The Bai-Perron test has identified three structural breaks in the data corresponding to four chronological regimes. The Engle-Granger cointegration test has found both the rate and the price to be non-stationary in all regimes while cointegration was found only in the third regime (September 12, 2011 – October 23, 2017). The main reasons for collapse of cointegration in the fourth regime (October 30, 2017 – December 28, 2020) are 1) successful efforts by oil-producing countries to curb oil production, 2) decline in Russian import of goods and services, 3) Bank of Russia’s contractionary monetary policy, 4) built-in exchange rate stabilizer activated by the budget rule, and 5) anti-Russian sanctions. Cointegration, as it turns out, comes and goes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Giri ◽  
Pooja Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe purpose of the present study is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using annual data from 1979 to 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to test the short and long run causality and variance decomposition is used to predict long run exogenous shocks of the variables. The results confirm a long run relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that Economic growth, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively. However, crude oil price influences the stock price negatively. This implies that the increase in oil price induces inflationary expectation in the mind of investors and hence stock prices are adversely affected. The VECM result indicates that short run and long run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and FDI to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks. The Government can take steps to control the crude oil price in India and Investors’ confidence has to be gained by boosting the economic growth of the economy through appropriate policy tools.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document