scholarly journals North Atlantic Modeling of Low-Frequency Variability in Mode Water Formation

2002 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 2666-2680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afonso M. Paiva ◽  
Eric P. Chassignet
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Maximum Amplitude ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Mode Water

Abstract The generation of interannual and near-decadal variability in the formation of mode waters in the western North Atlantic is investigated in the realistic framework of an isopycnic coordinate ocean model forced with atmospheric data from 1946 to 1988. At Bermuda, the model reproduces quite well the observed potential vorticity and isopycnal depth anomalies associated with the subtropical mode water (STMW). Heat storage and preconditioning of the convective activity are found to be the important factors for the generation of STMW variability, with persistence of cold (warm) conditions, associated with anomalous heat loss (gain) over the western subtropics, being more significant for the generation of the simulated variability than are strong anomalous events in isolated years. In the Labrador Sea, the model captures the phase and order of magnitude of the observed near-decadal variability in the convective activity, if not its maximum amplitude. The simulated potential vorticity anomalies are, as observed, out-of-phase with those in the western subtropics and correlate well with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at near-decadal timescales, with the oceanic response lagging the NAO by ∼2–3 years. These results support the idea that the variability in water mass formation in the western North Atlantic can be attributed, to a large extent, to changes in the pattern of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which generate sensible and latent heat flux variability by modifying the strength and position of the westerly winds and the advection of heat and moisture over the ocean. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time that the interannual and near-decadal subsurface variability associated with STMW and Labrador Sea Water, and its relationship to the NAO, has been simulated in an ocean general circulation model.

scholarly journals Water mass transformation in the North Atlantic over 1985-2002 simulated in an eddy-permitting model

Ocean Science ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Marsh ◽  
S. A. Josey ◽  
A. J. G. de Nurser ◽  
B. A. Cuevas ◽  
A. C. Coward
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Mode Water ◽  
The North ◽  
Transformation Rates ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Water Mass Transformation

Abstract. Water mass transformation in the North Atlantic is examined in an eddy-permitting simulation with the OCCAM ocean general circulation model, forced by realistic surface fluxes over the period 1985-2002. Three Atlantic regions are considered - the subtropics, mid-latitudes, the northeast Atlantic - along with the Labrador Sea. The oceanic boundaries of each region coincide with hydrographic sections occupied in recent years. These regions broadly represent the formation sites of Eighteen Degree Water (EDW), Subtropical Mode Water (STMW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) and Labrador Sea Water (LSW). Water mass budgets are obtained for each region and year. Terms in the budget comprise surface-forced transformation rates, boundary exchanges and unsteadiness. Transformation rates due to "total mixing" are obtained as the difference between net and surface transformation rates. Transports at the boundaries are evaluated alongside recent hydrographic section datasets, while surface-driven and mixing-driven transformation rates are compared with estimates based on air-sea flux datasets and inverse analysis of hydrographic data. In general OCCAM compares well with the observations, although two particular discrepancies are identified: deep overflows at high latitudes too light by around 0.2 kg m-3 and spurious heat gain of up to 100 Wm-2 east of the Grand Banks. Over 1985-2002, there is considerable variability on a range of timescales, in the annual surface-driven and mixing-driven formation rates of all four water masses. In the case of EDW and STMW, surface-driven and mixing-driven formation rates largely cancel. This is not so for SPMW and LSW, leading to regional net formation rates of up to 17 Sv and 15 Sv, respectively. In particular, OCCAM successfully simulates the strong LSW formation event of 1989-1994.

scholarly journals A multi-decadal meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front in the Newfoundland Basin

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Núñez-Riboni ◽  
M. Bersch ◽  
H. Haak ◽  
J. H. Jungclaus ◽  
K. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Displacement ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Newfoundland Basin

Abstract. Observations since the 1950s show a multi-decadal cycle of a meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front (SPF) in the Newfoundland Basin (NFB) in the North Atlantic. The SPF displacement is associated with corresponding variations in the path of the North Atlantic Current. We use the ocean general circulation model MPIOM with enhanced horizontal and vertical resolutions and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the relation of the SPF displacement to atmospheric forcing, intensities of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and Labrador Sea Water (LSW) volume. The simulations indicate that the SPF displacement is associated with a circulation anomaly between the SPG and the subtropical gyre (STG), an inter-gyre gyre with a multi-decadal time scale. A sensitivity experiment indicates that both wind stress curl (WSC) and heat fluxes (which match LSW changes) contribute to the circulation anomalies in the frontal region and to the SPF displacement. An anticyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to negative WSC and LSW anomalies and to a SPF north of its climatological position, indicating an expanding STG. A cyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to positive WSC and LSW anomalies and a SPF south of its climatological position, indicating an expanding SPG. Therefore, the mean latitudinal position of the SPF in the NFB (a "SPF index") could be an indicator of the amount of LSW in the inter-gyre region. Spreading of LSW anomalies intensifies the MOC, suggesting our SPF index as predictor of the MOC intensity at multi-decadal time scales. The meridional displacement of the SPF has a pronounced influence on the meridional heat transport, both on its gyre and overturning components.

scholarly journals North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (22) ◽  
pp. 33049-33075 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bacer ◽  
T. Christoudias ◽  
A. Pozzer
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on pollutant transport. We study the influence of the NAO on the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future by considering simulations performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model. We analyze two model runs: a simulation with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data over a period of 35 years (1979–2013) and a simulation with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) boundary conditions over 150 years (1950–2099). The model is shown to reproduce the NAO spatial and temporal variability and to be comparable with observations. We find that the decadal variability in the NAO, which has been pronounced since 1950s until 1990, will continue to dominate in the future considering decadal periods, although no significant trends are present in the long term projection (100–150 years horizon). We do not find in the model projections any significant temporal trend of the NAO for the future, meaning that neither positive or negative phases will dominate. Tracers with idealised decay and emissions are considered to investigate the NAO effects on transport; it is shown that during the positive phase of the NAO, the transport from North America towards northern Europe is stronger and pollutants are shifted northwards over the Arctic and southwards over the Mediterranean and North Africa, with two distinct areas of removal and stagnation of pollutants.

scholarly journals Decadal Shifts of the Kuroshio Extension Jet: Application of Thin-Jet Theory*

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 979-993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshi N. Sasaki ◽  
Niklas Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Kuroshio Extension ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Dynamic Framework ◽  
The Kuroshio

Abstract Meridional shifts of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet on decadal time scales are examined using a 1960–2004 hindcast simulation of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). The leading mode of the simulated KE represents the meridional shifts of the jet on decadal time scales with the largest southward shift in the early 1980s associated with the climate regime shift in 1976/77, a result confirmed with subsurface temperature observations. The meridional shifts originate east of the date line and propagate westward along the mean jet axis, a trajectory inconsistent with the traditionally used linear long Rossby waves linearized in Cartesian coordinates, although the phase speed is comparable to that in the traditional framework. The zonal scale of these westward propagation signals is about 4000 km and much larger than their meridional scale. To understand the mechanism for the westward propagation of the KE jet shifts, the authors consider the limit of a thin jet. This dynamic framework describes the temporal evolution of the location of a sharp potential vorticity front under the assumption that variations along the jet are small compared to variations normal to the jet in natural coordinates and is well suited to the strong jet and potential vorticity gradients of the KE. For scaling appropriate to the decadal adjustments in the KE, the thin-jet model successfully reproduces the westward propagations and decadal shifts of the jet latitude simulated in OFES. These results give a physical basis for the prediction of decadal variability in the KE.

scholarly journals Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3153-3167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Mei ◽  
Youichi Kamae ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Kohei Yoshida
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract Variability of North Atlantic annual hurricane frequency during 1951–2010 is studied using a 100-member ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The ensemble mean results well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data since 1970, and suggest that the current best track data might underestimate hurricane frequency prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the main development region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the SST-forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a useful predictor; a 1°C increase in this SST difference produces 7.05 ± 1.39 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits strong internal variability that is systematically larger in the model than observations. The seasonal-mean environment is highly correlated among ensemble members and contributes to less than 10% of the ensemble spread in hurricane frequency. The strong internal variability is suggested to originate from weather to intraseasonal variability and nonlinearity. In practice, a 20-member ensemble is sufficient to capture the SST-forced variability.

scholarly journals A multi-decadal meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front in the Newfoundland Basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 453-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Núñez-Riboni ◽  
M. Bersch ◽  
H. Haak ◽  
J. H. Jungclaus
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Displacement ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Newfoundland Basin

Abstract. Observations since the 1950s show a multi-decadal cycle of a meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front (SPF) in the Newfoundland Basin (NFB) in the North Atlantic. The SPF displacement is associated with corresponding variations in the path of the North Atlantic Current. We use the ocean general circulation model MPIOM with enhanced horizontal and vertical resolutions and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the relation of the SPF displacement to Labrador Sea Water (LSW) volume, atmospheric forcing and intensities of the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The simulations indicate that the SPF displacement is associated with a circulation anomaly between the SPG and the subtropical gyre (STG), an inter-gyre gyre with a multi-decadal time scale. Contributions of wind stress curl (WSC) and LSW volume changes to the inter-gyre gyre are similar between 35 and 55° N (excluding the western boundary current). An anticyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to negative WSC and LSW anomalies and to a SPF north of its climatological position, indicating an expanding STG. A cyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to positive WSC and LSW anomalies and a SPF south of its climatological position, indicating an expanding SPG. Therefore, the mean latitudinal position of the SPF in the NFB could be an indicator of the amount of LSW in the inter-gyre region. Spreading of LSW anomalies intensifies the MOC, suggesting our SPF index as predictor of the MOC intensity at multi-decadal time scales. The meridional displacement of the SPF has a pronounced influence on the meridional heat transport, both on its gyre and overturning components.

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