Decadal North Pacific Bred Vectors in a Coupled GCM

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (23) ◽  
pp. 5744-5764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Vikhliaev ◽  
Ben Kirtman ◽  
Paul Schopf
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Coupled Gcm ◽  
Bred Vectors

Abstract A number of recent studies done with simple numerical models suggest that the decadal variability in the extratropical North Pacific Ocean is a result of the excitation of low-frequency ocean basin modes. To test this assumption, low-frequency North Pacific variability was examined using a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Earlier studies had shown that slowly varying dynamical modes in a CGCM can be effectively isolated using the breeding technique. In this study, the breeding method was applied to the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) anomaly coupled GCM (ACGCM), and it was found that several types of slow modes can be isolated depending on the parameters of the breeding cycle. Tropical bred vector SST and upper-ocean heat content are dominated by the ENSO, which is consistent with the results obtained earlier using other CGCMs. Extratropical bred vector upper-ocean heat content is dominated by oceanic instability localized east of Japan, varying on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and decadal modes with the large-scale pattern over the central and eastern extratropical North Pacific. Similar to ocean basin modes, the decadal modes have a signature of westward-propagating long baroclinic Rossby waves, but do not exhibit the global imprint typical for global basin modes. The relationship between the decadal bred vectors and the background anomalies is consistent with linear damped dynamics. Presumably, the growth of the decadal bred vectors is due to the atmospheric stochastic forcing, but the existence of extratropical instability on decadal time scales still needs to be verified.

scholarly journals Intrinsic oceanic decadal variability of upper-ocean heat content

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Navid C. Constantinou ◽  
Andrew McC. Hogg
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Low Frequency Variability

AbstractAtmosphere and ocean are coupled via air–sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear. In particular, such low-frequency variability is difficult to extract from the short observational record, meaning that climate models are the primary tools deployed to resolve this question. Here, we assess how the ocean’s intrinsic variability leads to patterns of upper-ocean heat content that vary at decadal time scales. These patterns have the potential to feed back on the atmosphere and thereby affect climate modes of variability, such as El Niño or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. We use the output from a global ocean–sea ice circulation model at three different horizontal resolutions, each driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis. To disentangle the variability of the ocean’s direct response to atmospheric forcing from the variability due to intrinsic ocean dynamics, we compare model runs driven with inter-annually varying forcing (1958-2019) and model runs driven with repeat-year forcing. Models with coarse resolution that rely on eddy parameterizations, show (i) significantly reduced variance of the upper-ocean heat content at decadal time scales and (ii) differences in the spatial patterns of low-frequency variability compared with higher resolution simulations. Climate projections are typically done with general circulation models with coarse-resolution ocean components. Therefore, these biases affect our ability to predict decadal climate modes of variability and, in turn, hinder climate projections. Our results suggest that for improving climate projections, the community should move towards coupled climate models with higher oceanic resolution.

scholarly journals Decadal Variability of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Associated with Meridional Shifts of Western Boundary Current Extensions in the North Pacific

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6247-6264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bunmei Taguchi ◽  
Niklas Schneider ◽  
Masami Nonaka ◽  
Hideharu Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Frontal Zone ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
Subarctic Frontal Zone ◽  
The North Pacific

Generation and propagation processes of upper-ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Pacific are investigated using oceanic subsurface observations and an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model hindcast simulation. OHC anomalies are decomposed into physically distinct dynamical components (OHC ρ) due to temperature anomalies that are associated with density anomalies and spiciness components (OHC χ) due to temperature anomalies that are density compensating with salinity. Analysis of the observational and model data consistently shows that both dynamical and spiciness components contribute to interannual–decadal OHC variability, with the former (latter) component dominating in the subtropical (subpolar) North Pacific. OHC ρ variability represents heaving of thermocline, propagates westward, and intensifies along the Kuroshio Extension, consistent with jet-trapped Rossby waves, while OHC χ variability propagates eastward along the subarctic frontal zone, suggesting advection by mean eastward currents. OHC χ variability tightly corresponds in space to horizontal mean spiciness gradients. Meanwhile, area-averaged OHC χ anomalies in the western subarctic frontal zone closely correspond in time to meridional shifts of the subarctic frontal zone. Regression coefficient of the OHC χ time series on the frontal displacement anomalies quantitatively agree with the area-averaged mean spiciness gradient in the region, and suggest that OHC χ is generated via frontal variability in the subarctic frontal zone.

Exploratory Analysis of Upper-Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Temperature Underlying Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 1031-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Hsiang Chih ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content

AbstractThe statistical relationships between tropical cyclones (TCs) with rapid intensification (RI) and upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) and sea surface temperature (SST) from 1998 to 2016 in the western North Pacific are examined. RI is computed based on four best track datasets in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). The statistical analysis shows that the UOHC and SST are higher in the RI duration than in non-RI duration. However, TCs with high UOHC/SST do not necessarily experience RI. In addition, the UOHC and SST are lower in the storm inner-core region due to storm-induced ocean cooling, and the UOHC reduces more significantly than the SST along the passages of TCs in the lower-latitude regions. Moreover, most of the RI (non-RI) duration is associated with the higher (lower) UOHC, but this is not the case for the SST pattern. Meanwhile, the TC intensification rate during the RI period does not appear to be sensitive to the SST, but shows statistically significant differences in the UOHC. In addition, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in the UOHC underlying TCs from 1998 to 2016. It is also noted that the percentages of the TCs with RI show different polynomial and linear trends based on different calculations of the RI events and RI durations. Finally, it is shown that there is no statistically significant difference in the UOHC, SST, and the percentage of RI among the five categories of ENSO events (i.e., strong El Niño, weak El Niño, neutral, weak La Niña, and strong La Niña).

scholarly journals Predictability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Upper-Ocean Heat Content

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 3005-3023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha W. Buckley ◽  
Tim DelSole ◽  
M. Susan Lozier ◽  
Laifang Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Regional Variations

Abstract Understanding the extent to which Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are predictable is important due to the strong climate impacts of Atlantic SST on Atlantic hurricanes and temperature and precipitation over adjacent landmasses. However, models differ substantially on the degree of predictability of Atlantic SST and upper-ocean heat content (UOHC). In this work, a lower bound on predictability time scales for SST and UOHC in the North Atlantic is estimated purely from gridded ocean observations using a measure of the decorrelation time scale based on the local autocorrelation. Decorrelation time scales for both wintertime SST and UOHC are longest in the subpolar gyre, with maximum time scales of about 4–6 years. Wintertime SST and UOHC generally have similar decorrelation time scales, except in regions with very deep mixed layers, such as the Labrador Sea, where time scales for UOHC are much larger. Spatial variations in the wintertime climatological mixed layer depth explain 51%–73% (range for three datasets analyzed) of the regional variations in decorrelation time scales for UOHC and 26%–40% (range for three datasets analyzed) of the regional variations in decorrelation time scales for wintertime SST in the extratropical North Atlantic. These results suggest that to leading order decorrelation time scales for UOHC are determined by the thermal memory of the ocean.

scholarly journals Upper-Ocean Thermal Structure and the Western North Pacific Category 5 Typhoons. Part I: Ocean Features and the Category 5 Typhoons’ Intensification

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (9) ◽  
pp. 3288-3306 ◽  
Author(s):  
I-I. Lin ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Iam-Fei Pun ◽  
Dong-Shan Ko
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Typhoon Season ◽  
Region 10

Abstract Category 5 cyclones are the most intense and devastating cyclones on earth. With increasing observations of category 5 cyclones, such as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), Mitch (1998), and Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) found to intensify on warm ocean features (i.e., regions of positive sea surface height anomalies detected by satellite altimeters), there is great interest in investigating the role ocean features play in the intensification of category 5 cyclones. Based on 13 yr of satellite altimetry data, in situ and climatological upper-ocean thermal structure data, best-track typhoon data of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center, together with an ocean mixed layer model, 30 western North Pacific category 5 typhoons that occurred during the typhoon season from 1993 to 2005 are systematically examined in this study. Two different types of situations are found. The first type is the situation found in the western North Pacific south eddy zone (SEZ; 21°–26°N, 127°–170°E) and the Kuroshio (21°–30°N, 127°–170°E) region. In these regions, the background climatological warm layer is relatively shallow (typically the depth of the 26°C isotherm is around 60 m and the upper-ocean heat content is ∼50 kJ cm−2). Therefore passing over positive features is critical to meet the ocean’s part of necessary conditions in intensification because the features can effectively deepen the warm layer (depth of the 26°C isotherm reaching 100 m and upper-ocean heat content is ∼110 kJ cm−2) to restrain the typhoon’s self-induced ocean cooling. In the past 13 yr, 8 out of the 30 category 5 typhoons (i.e., 27%) belong to this situation. The second type is the situation found in the gyre central region (10°–21°N, 121°–170°E) where the background climatological warm layer is deep (typically the depth of the 26°C isotherm is ∼105–120 m and the upper-ocean heat content is ∼80–120 kJ cm−2). In this deep, warm background, passing over positive features is not critical since the background itself is already sufficient to restrain the self-induced cooling negative feedback during intensification.

scholarly journals On the Relationship between Regional Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Height

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (22) ◽  
pp. 9195-9211 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
Peter R. Gent
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Model Control ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract An accurate diagnosis of ocean heat content (OHC) is essential for interpreting climate variability and change, as evidenced for example by the broad range of hypotheses that exists for explaining the recent hiatus in global mean surface warming. Potential insights are explored here by examining relationships between OHC and sea surface height (SSH) in observations and two recently available large ensembles of climate model simulations from the mid-twentieth century to 2100. It is found that in decadal-length observations and a model control simulation with constant forcing, strong ties between OHC and SSH exist, with little temporal or spatial complexity. Agreement is particularly strong on monthly to interannual time scales. In contrast, in forced transient warming simulations, important dependencies in the relationship exist as a function of region and time scale. Near Antarctica, low-frequency SSH variability is driven mainly by changes in the circumpolar current associated with intensified surface winds, leading to correlations between OHC and SSH that are weak and sometimes negative. In subtropical regions, and near other coastal boundaries, negative correlations are also evident on long time scales and are associated with the accumulated effects of changes in the water cycle and ocean dynamics that underlie complexity in the OHC relationship to SSH. Low-frequency variability in observations is found to exhibit similar negative correlations. Combined with altimeter data, these results provide evidence that SSH increases in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans during the hiatus are suggestive of substantial OHC increases. Methods for developing the applicability of altimetry as a constraint on OHC more generally are also discussed.

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